US Treasury Update 16 jan 2025.

Its been months since we’ve written anything on Linkedin.

My apologies., I will try to put up regular articles.

As written in our oct 2024 ., july 2024 and june 2024 update., we had mentioned that last 6 months of 2024 will see volatile movements across all securities. Now that was a very generic statement., and doesn’t mean anything if there are no specifics.

So we will deal with specifics.

This article is all about US treasury bonds. In our last article dated 6 Oct 2024., we had very categorically said that the 30 year bond faced tremendous resistance at 128-132 levels., and we recommend exiting our long trading position. ?In the same post., we had ?also recommended a buy back trade at 120-121., with a stop of 119. That didn’t turn out well and was exited at a cost.

In the 2 year treasury bill., 102 level is the level to watch and keep an eye on.

In the 30 year treasury bill., 119 was the level., that is clearly broken and we are trading at 111 odd.

We had clearly mentioned there is no long term buy signal in the US Treasury Bond market., the kinds shown in the US 2 Year Treasury chart above. ?The July 2024 short term trade call was given ., just as an example of our robust trading system.??

From the chart above you will see that any signal in the 2 year treasury bond., has two different superindicator signals., one is an early warning signal and the other is a confirmation signal.

Right now we have a warning., nothing more.? We shall await for a confirmation and a direction for a long term treasury trade.? In the last 4 year only 2 signals were generated ., but they were spectacular.

Of course there are many other short term trades within the system ., but I do not post them here. ( except the long trading call given in July 2024 ., just as an example. )

We stick to our view., no buy signal., and the down move from the 30 year resistance level of 128-132 has already brought it? close to its 2024 lows., will it break those lows and go down further ., we do not know. All we know is do not buy for long term. Wait for a signal. We also do not have a short Treasury signal. There are many other securities to trade in the market.

An interesting chart of the 30 year treasury bond is enclosed below. See the pattern formed after the bif drop of 1979., till 1984 it traded in a range.? Once it broke out of it., there was a multi year rally. We have a similar drop in 2022 ., and now we are in 2025., and it looks like we almost have a similar pattern forming. ?Its just something one should keep in mind. This range bound movement could last for a long time.? Once again., we do not have any long term buy or sell recommendation in US Treasuries.

This week hopefully., we will update on many markets.

Stay Profitable. Stay Healthy.