US Takes The Tariff Plunge | Economists in the News | Sovereign Debt 2025 | Look Forward: Energy At The Crossroads | CERAWeek
Welcome to the latest edition of Essential Economics! ?My team released a transitional macro update this week following the implementation of US import tariffs. Our view is that there are no winners: lower GDP, higher unemployment, and higher inflation.? The team was in high demand in the media: I appeared on Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance, US Chief Economist Satyam Panday appeared on CNBC TV18 (India), Asia Pacific Chief Economist Louis Kuijs appeared on VTV (Vietnam) and EMEA Chief Economist Sylvain Broyer appeared on the BBC. Our sovereign ratings team led by Roberto Sifon released their suite of 2025 debt reports. Our latest Look Forward journal brings together views from a range of experts on the topic of energy at the crossroads. Finally, I’m off to Houston next week to attend our flagship CERAWeek conference, arguably the premier global gathering of energy experts. I plan to report back in next week’s Essential Economics.
US Takes The Tariff Plunge
On March 4, U.S. President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on nearly all goods imports from Canada (excluding oil and gas at 10%) and Mexico and added an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. We conclude that the economic effects of these tariffs are negative and asymmetric, hitting Canada and Mexico hardest. The effects on China compared with our previous baseline are minimal.
Our updated forecasts are a transitional baseline until we issue a full macro update at the end of March.
To read the full report, click here.
Economists in the News
The team was in high demand this week following the release of our revised baseline.
Watch my interviews with Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance.
Watch Satyam’s interview on CNBC TV-18 (India), here.
Watch Louis’s interview on VTV (Vietnam), here.
Sovereign Debt 2025
Our sovereign ratings team released a suite of debt reports this week, spanning the globe:
Watch the replay of the sovereign debt webinar held on March 5 here.
Look Forward: Energy At The Crossroads
In this edition of?Look Forward?we provide a window into the complex and fast-changing nature of the global energy industry. Our authors highlight the predetermined elements of the energy transition, the reasons for a global resurgence in nuclear power and the feasibility of creating new clean technology supply chains outside of China.
Our goal is to shine a light on the global energy system.?
Read the full report here.
CERAWeek
As always, I’m looking forward to participating in CERAWeek, arguably the world’s premier energy conference. In addition to appearing on two panels and moderating another, I look forward to listening to – and learning from – executive speakers, ministers and top government officials, and industry movers and shakers.
I plan to report my CERAWeek takeaways in the next edition of Essential Economics.
?Visit the CERAWeek homepage here.
ICYMI: Tariffs Webinar
Following the US tariff actions this week, our economists – including yours truly - and credit analysts held a webinar to explore how recent tariff actions could have both economic and credit implications.
Watch the replay of our webinar that took place on March 6 here.
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As always, you can find the latest research from the S&P Global Ratings Economics team here.
Course Director - Master of Applied Finance: ??Ranked No 1 in Australia QS 2025 (Fully Online and Hybrid Mode) Media Commentator: Economics, Finance Commodities Coach (Carlingford Waratah Cricket Club)
1 天前Very Insightful Paul. I see a big move on defence spending in Europe at the expense of subsidies in the renewable sector. With France, UK and Germany leading. This would require the support of affordable and reliable energy with Gas playing a big role.