US Sustainability Balance Sheet - Chapter 2. The Super Nexus Age

The Super Nexus

Before we push the Green Button , we have to get familiar with the Super Nexus. So what is the Super Nexus? A nexus is a connection or series of connections linking two or more elements in a particular situation. The Super Nexus is a three-way confluence (Super Nexus Definition) addressing the relationship of the activities of human society, the economy, the environment, and resources. There is the need for environmental and economic sustainability and economic expansion which are also linked to resources. Given that conventional resources are finite, society, with a prodigiously larger appetite, is forced to fend from an ever dwindling pool of these finite resources.

With increasing populations and surging standards of living straining resources, an epic crisis is looming for global society.

Something has to give in this scenario and, unless alternatives are found, resource costs will skyrocket. Just ask the McKinsey Group. Since many resources are interlinked, this means that the cost increase for resources will be geometric, not linear. This phenomena is likely to reverberate throughout the economy potentially wreaking havoc. This situation can be avoided if society manages to find alternative resources. Underlying the Super Nexus is a cacophony of economic, environmental, and sustainable challenges that threaten the very

fabric of current societal functionality. These interlinked trends have coalesced to create a super nexus. There are numerous other, smaller nexuses that comprise and are sub-components of the overall the Super Nexus. For example, there is the water-energy-food nexus, the energy-water nexus, the population-environment-development nexus, the poverty-environment-development nexus, the environment-poverty reduction nexus, and the global resource nexus. One can find the various elements in the aforementioned list in the three components that comprise the Super Nexus: Depletion of Resources, Economic and Environmental Sustainability, and Economic Expansion.

When applying Super Nexus thinking operationally to sustainability situations, unforeseen realities may emerge. These can be bad, but some may be good. This is why the space is so challenging. No matter how zealously one practices sustainability, gleaning a best course for specific cases can often be tricky.

The Path to the The Super Nexus Age

It is valid to ask about the origin of the Super Nexus. Was it always a factor? It was not. Is the Super Nexus solely a consequence of population growth as some may have us believe? The answer is more complicated than a simple yes or no. If we only look at the top line of the graph showing total world population as a function of time (UN Graph), it may be argued that there is a direct correlation between the onset of the Super Nexus Age and population. However, the graph below also shows the increase in world population for both developed and undeveloped regions. The population of developed regions has increased much slower with a much higher per capita consumption of resources than that of underdeveloped regions. The level of societal functionality has a huge impact on the rate of resource consumption for a particular strata of society and also globally. An early worker in

the sustainability space, Dr. Earl Cook from Texas A&M, did groundbreaking work on quantifying the utilization of energy resources by different levels of society. He (Cook, E., “The Flow of Energy in an Industrial Society”, Scientific American, September, 1971) made an analysis of per person energy requirements per day that comprise the total amount of energy for food, transportation, and other support features that a person consumes for a specific level of technological sophistication. The graph shown below was developed using Cook’s information and discussed in another article. It shows that primitive man only needed about 2,000 dietary calories per capita per day which corresponds to 2,000 Kcal per capita per day. Increased technological sophistication of human societies raises per capita energy consumption at increasing rates as shown in the figure. These data make important

points that merit our attention:

• Transitioning to higher levels of societal functionality commands an almost quantum leap in per capita resource consumption. For a country or region, the total energy consumption is the product of the per capita demand multiplied by the population. To predict additional future energy needs, one must multiply the estimated population increase times the projected level of societal functionality or future consumption rate. For an example, please see The Global Ripple Effects of China's Renewable Energy Efforts.
• Both China and India are in the midst of increasing their standards of living. They both have to determine their targets for future per capita energy consumption rates. The two potential rate numbers could be the US (2016) or Europe (France, etc., 2012). A prudent suggestion is to use the European target as this energy utilization rate as it appears to be providing a comfortable standard of living as evidenced by the European experience.
• Thus US at a rate of 210,000 Kcal/cap/day is about 9 times greater than India's rate. The populations of about India and the US are 1.5 billion and 0.320 billion, respectively. However, with only 20% of the population that India has, the US total energy consumption is double that of India.

The US per capita energy consumption rate is unsustainable, both environmentally and economically, putting the country at great risk.

• More detailed information regarding the uses and interpretation of this graph is given in an another article.

Determining the Start of Super Nexus Age

An approach to answer this question is to use both historical population data and global resource consumption information. A graph of world population versus time for the last 200 years is shown below which has been modified using a figure that was modified from information in Our Finite World. This shows that population growth rates rapidly began to accelerate about 1950. These data suggest that world resources come under stress due to populations that are rapidly burgeoning. However, that is only part of the story because the Super Nexus is also about different living standards that require higher resource consumption rates that correspond with higher standards of living and societal functionality.

There is also a simultaneous, additional effect regarding accelerated rates of resource consumption per capita. 

Using historical data for energy consumption, it is illuminating to view global energy consumption over the last two hundred year. The modified graph below is based on information given by Our Finite World. The plot shows that World Energy Consumption

rapidly began to accelerate at the end of World War II, 1945. Additional data from Our Finite World also shows that the World Energy per Capita Consumption rate also accelerated which means that resource consumption rates per capita also showed significant increases as these rates doubled from 1960 to 1980. The Super Nexus Age thus seems to have started about 1960 as indicated by the onset of rapidly increasing energy consumption rates, both total and when calculated on a per capita consumption basis. This date marks the beginning of a new planetary epoch in which the full effects of the interrelationships of populations, resource demands, and the need for economic and environmental sustainability hold sway over the ability of the collective human community to live, persist, and, hopefully, thrive. Humans are in de facto control of many elements of the Super Nexus and thus, to a large extent, are masters of their own fate and those of many other species on the planet. In light of these factors, failure is not an option, but instead represents a poor choice, assuming we have the will to succeed.

The reality maxims of the Super Nexus need to be embraced and cannot be glibly neglected. This thinking epitomizes a new societal reality and success necessitates conscious participation by those effected which is all of us.

Raising Living Standards in the Super Nexus - Our Greatest Challenge

Consider the goal of "making developing countries into developed countries". For planning purposes, one has to consider what level of societal functionality is adequate and what is the associated target for the per capita rate of energy consumption needed (refer to figure titled, "Daily Energy Consumption Per Capita Per Day for Different Levels of Civilization"). The US energy per capita consumption rate of 210,000 kcal/capita/day is preposterously unrealistic and unsustainable. By comparison, European countries appear to have a comparable level of societal functionality with much lower resource consumption rates. A target energy per capita consumption rate for selected European countries of 100,000 kcal/capita/day seems more reasonable for developing countries to use as a goal. One can assume that the current average energy consumption rate is around 25,000 kcal/capita/day for developing populations. Next, determine the percentage of the population that is in the the developing world based on the Human Development Index which is 90%. This information results in a developing world population of 6.8 billion people.

China, however, represents an "in-between case" in terms of societal functionality since its per capita energy consumption rate stands around 50,000 kcal/capita/day so its population of 1.4 billion people is removed from the developing world category. Categorizing China's populations uniquely results in three large segments of population at different energy per capita consumption rates: 1) the US and Europe, 2) China, and 3) the developing world with populations of 0.8 billion, 1.4 billion, and 5.4 billion, respectively.

Most of the world's population is in the developing world and China meaning that the increase in global energy consumption will come from these populations as they transition to higher levels of societal functionality.

Higher living standards requires increased energy consumption rates that can be used for estimating the impact on the increase in global energy consumption. Estimating the required increase for total global energy consumption for transitioning less developed populations and China to developed ones requires:

• The populations of underdeveloped countries and China which are 1.4 billion and 5.4 billion, respectively;
• The current per capita energy consumption rates of the two populations which is 25,000 and 50,000 kcal/capita/day for undeveloped and Chinese populations, respectively.
• The assumption that the target per capita energy consumption rate (after the higher level of societal functionality is attained) is 100,000 kcal/capita/day. This means that the increase in per capita energy consumption rates for the undeveloped and Chinese populations must be 75,000 and 50,000 kcal/capita/day, respectively. These numbers and assumptions mean that transitioning both populations requires an increase in global energy production of 471,000 GWH/day and 82,000 GWH/day for the undeveloped populations and China, respectively, for a total of 553,000 GWH/day.

A 550,000 GWH increase in global energy use requires the installation of a little over 23,000 power plants of 5 GW each to meet the new demand.

It is clear that accommodating the burgeoning new populations into a higher level of societal functionality will not be a trivial undertaking. There are global implications for all countries particularly the US. The US has enjoyed and arguably needlessly wallowed in years of resource over-indulgence without consequences. Events are in motion that compel the need for a new societal model as the years of gluttonous consumption with impunity are rapidly coming to an end.

The Super Nexus Age and the US Sustainability Balance Sheet

Before the Super Nexus Age, when faced with a crisis with resource supply, society, at least in the US, predominantly exemplified a “manifest destiny” attitude toward resources. That is, a new river, oil field, or mineral deposit was seemingly “just within our grasp.” With 7.6 billion people on the planet and counting and the realities of the Super Nexus Age staring us in the face, there are few, if any, significant undiscovered sources “over yonder ". Strategies must consider that others, like developing populations, also need resources which leads to competition. Without a robust renewable portfolio or resource efficiency effort, fossil sources, which are becoming scant, costly, and inefficient, will be a choice of last resort.

The reality is that no vast resource Shangri-La is on the planet awaiting discovery and subsequent human exploitation.

For example, energy groups prognosticated that an energy resource Shangri-La may exist in the oil tar sands in Canada. They were correct about vast supplies of energy, but economically naive. Economic and engineering reality raised its ugly head as embodied in an under-used, under-appreciated, and, perhaps, intentionally ignored, term called EROI which means "Energy Returned on Energy Invested". Based on the energy needed to recover and process the oil, the tar sands energy balance is barely break-even with an EROI of about 4 while the overall current average for oil EROI is about 10. An EROI of 10 is barely acceptable. The days of oil EROIs in the 20s and higher are long gone as these numbers continue to drop. In the oil boom years, EROIs in the 50s were common. This EROI argument is much more than environmental. It is primarily economical as are many drivers for sustainability as was reinforced using a quote from James Carville in Chapter 1. The EROI experience for oil will be replicated with other resources such as water, land, fertilizer, etc. This trend should come as no surprise based on Super Nexus realities. It is this playing field on which the US and the rest of the world must survive, not compete.

The days of zero-sum competitions over resources are over. It is likely that we either all survive and move forward or all face an uncertain future but with unforeseen circumstances that are likely to be unprecedented.

The US Sustainability Balance Sheet must nevertheless contend with new realities and considerations that come with the Super Nexus Age. Other countries have shown that one can alter resource consumption behavior and re-aligning operational paradigms without undue umbrage to societal functionality.

The US must come to the realization that sustainability is much more than global warming. It must be a way of life in order to preserve a way of life.

Our Finest Hour - What Apollo 13 Teaches Spaceship Earth

The concept of Spaceship Earth has been around for quite a while. It is the basic idea that our planet is a self-contained vessel with the only external source of energy emanating from our Sun about 93 million miles away. This conceptualization of the Earth as a solitary wanderer whose inhabitants must make due with a resource-limited environment gained wide popularity after the iconic flight of Apollo 8 which became the first manned spacecraft to orbit another world. During the flight, Astronaut Bill Anders took the famous photograph, Earthrise , shown below, depicting the Earth as it rises above the Moon's horizon. For many people, this picture galvanized the meaning of the term, Spaceship Earth, as it hurdles

through the Universe. It is our home and we must all work to make the best of it.

A few years and five missions later, the voyage of Apollo 13 became, as one writer noted, a parable for global sustainability. This epic spaceflight is famous and the saga was made into a major motion picture, Apollo 13, in 1995. Things did not go as planned on this mission, but as so often happens, therein lies the greatness with both the journey and the endeavor. The story is a microcosm of Spaceship Earth. A small, overcrowded, and resource-challenged, habitat has malfunctioned due to human error which puts the occupants in harm's way with potentially disastrous consequences. The survival of the crew was given less than a 50% chance by a senior NASA official who was at mission control at the time. This plot line should sound familiar to those of us in the sustainability space. Both Spaceship Earth and Apollo 13 exhibit the symptoms of lack of food, water, and energy with human inhabitants being stretched to their emotional, intellectual, and resource limits. Consider the added irony that the craft had its own CO2 problem which had to be addressed with a broad concerted and collegial effort involving the both the spacecraft crew and the massive ground crew at mission control. They collectively and cleverly re-tooled existing scrubber systems to solve the problem. Meanwhile, the Apollo 13 crew did their collective best to maintain decorum while focusing on the task at hand and straining to avoid thinking the unthinkable in that they may not survive. They did survive by maximizing the use of their resources which included re-purposing the functionality of various pieces of equipment which had to perform tasks that were different from the tasks envisioned by the original design.

In comparison to Apollo 13, Spaceship Earth has a much longer journey, but like its counter part, "failure is not an option." If humanity fails, the ship will still persevere, but human civilization, as we know it, may not. Is it a bit too dramatic to compare Spaceship Earth with the Apollo 13 experience? No. The more we, the collective passengers on Spaceship Earth, reflect on the experience of Apollo 13, the more astute and focused we as a society become on the task at hand. Sustainability is not just some flowery, high-brow tag line for cocktail conversations, it is a reality that involves us all. Sustainability became a world issue as both populations and standards of living increased. Resources got stretched and ecosystems were put under siege. In earlier times, with less populations and lower standards of living, resources were abundant and humanity's waste products could be easily re-processed by the planet's assimilation capacity. Today, we have virtually exhausted most of our natural resources and have overwhelmed planetary assimilation capacity.

Now, like Apollo 13, the crew of Spaceship Earth is coming to grips with sustainable realities. Societies are slowly, but inexorably, changing their functionalities to ones that are more reliant on renewable resources and sustainable economies. The case for renewables is more about sustaining the integrity of human economies than about global warming. Fortunately, as more economies transition to renewables, there is less net carbon and other greenhouse gases that get ejected into the atmosphere. The need for maintenance of economies and societal functionalities compels populations to embrace a sustainable modus operandi or perish. Although climate fatalists opine that it is too late and there is little hope, I disagree. I would respond as Apollo 13 Flight Director, Gene Kranz (played by Ed Harris in the movie) did when an official suggested that the flight could be NASA's greatest disaster,

"With all due respect, sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour."

The task before us is not easy, but if we have the commitment and we use the tools, it is eminently achievable and well within our grasp.