U.S. Strategy in Question as China and India Begin Border Troop Pullback

It’s been a week since news broke that China and India would withdraw military forces along their contested border, and we’re still trying to digest the implications of the deal.

The sense in New Delhi is to wait and see how this first disengagement goes before getting hopes up for a larger de-escalation.?

My feeling is that it’s going to happen because both countries are increasingly incentivized to reposition resources elsewhere. For the Chinese, their primary security concern is definitely further north around Taiwan and the South China Sea. But even more important for Beijing is if they can put some daylight between India and the other members of the U.S.-led Quad security partnership.

At first glance, that does appear to be what’s happening here.

As tensions steadily escalate between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, India has got to be asking whether it makes sense for them to get sucked into this fight under the auspices of the Quad.?

The U.S. will no doubt respond by explaining that’s precisely why they launched the security partnership known as the “Squad,”? which replaces India with the Philippines and means to take on Beijing over the South China Sea.

U.S. policymakers may have anticipated that something like this would happen, but I doubt it. The impression in the U.S. capital is that India is a steadfast partner in their campaign to confront China — which, as of last week, is clearly not the case.

What’s happening now between China and India should provoke a thorough review of U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, but it probably won’t, at least in the short term, until we know who will be sitting in the White House next year.

China is fully aware of this, and it is likely part of the reason why the PLA is moving very fast to withdraw its troops from portions of the border and maintain the momentum to foster closer ties with India while the U.S. is distracted.