US Steel Newsreel - Issue 8

03/03/25 - HRC / March Madness!

March is shaping up to be a pivotal month for HRC pricing, with Nucor’s CSP announcement setting the stage. If they align at $900, it would further solidify the price floor established by CLF, Platts, US Steel, and NMLK. Meanwhile, SMU at $880 and CRU trailing at $838 highlight the ongoing price divergence.

However, the real market mover is the tariff situation. If Trump’s proposed tariffs go through as planned, the stacked impact could create significant disruptions. The additional 10% tariff on China — bringing their total to 20% — is notable, but the real shake-up is the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow, along with a blanket 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports starting March 12.?

Despite HRC futures surging and physical trading clustering around $900, traders are rightly hesitant. Until the final tariff structure is confirmed, price discovery remains uncertain. If these tariffs hold, the combined impact on supply chains, importers, and end-users could be severe.

The real question now: will the market absorb these costs, or will we see a pushback that alters the landscape yet again?

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