U.S. Soybean Exports to China Rise Amid Rising Trade Tensions

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U.S. soybean farmers have faced multiple headwinds since 2018, given slowing global demand, rising stock levels, and lower prices for their commodity. As exports to their largest market, China, dropped by 75% (y/y) in 2018 amidst rising trade tensions, U.S. soy farmers have sought new ways to stay competitive. This has  included participating in new U.S. government aid programs, slashing prices, and finding new markets. Even if trade tensions subside, it has been observed that (1) pricing is not the only determinant of competitiveness in China’s market; (2) alternative suppliers (e.g., from Brazil) can serve as at least temporary substitutes; and (3) China’s state‐owned enterprises are highly responsive to their government’s changing positions on soy.