US recognition of Juan Guaido government: "The Struggle for Control of Occupied Venezuela"
Dear Colleague:
I am writing to share my new work on the struggle between the de facto government of Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela, and the National Assembly, just recognized by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as the country's legitimate (de jure) government. The article is enclosed here as a PDF file, and available at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) which published it:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/struggle-control-occupied-venezuela
As event are developing rapidly with pronouncements by US Vicepresident Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, today's large-scale demonstrations in Venezuela, and National Assembly President Juan Guaido's expressed willingness to act as interim head of government, I would like to advance the following thoughts:
There is a strong legal/constitutional case for the US recognizing Guaido and the National Assembly as the most credible representative of Venezuela under the country's constitution...and important strategic and policy reasons for doing so. Moreover, doing so may be the last best opportunity to break the current impasse. Nonetheless, we must not forget that Madruo's criminal cabal (to which the military and other armed groups give allegiance) is still in physical control of Venezuela's territory. Even if Maduro is removed from power, the situation is explosive, with the prospect of a fragmenting military, national guard, armed and undisciplined collectivos, prison gangs, ELN, remnants of the FARC, and criminal bands.
The lives at stake make it particularly important that the US means, thinks through the implications, and backs up what it has said. The principled statements by VP Pence, and Secretary Pompeo recognizing Guaido and the National Assembly as the de jure government were a gutsy move. It is now our responsibility to be prepared for what comes next: If Maduro's henchmen simply arrest or kill Guaido and dissolve the assembly...then what? If the people take to the street in the millions, as in 2014 and 2017, and pro-regime paramilitaries begin to gun them down, as in Nicaragua...then what? Having poked the hornets' nest, the US, and likeminded democratic governments, working through multilateral vehicles such as the Lima Group and the Organization of American States, must be prepared to truly protect and stand with over the long-term those Venezuelans who are courageously standing up for the restoration of democratic rule to Venezuela...and to be equally sincere proponents of real democracy and self-governance in the rest of the region as well.
Thank you, as always, for the opportunity to continue in touch through this medium.
Respectfully,
Evan Ellis
Dr. R. Evan Ellis
Research Professor of Latin American Studies U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute