The US Re-Engages With Africa

Washington is trying to regain ground it lost to Beijing and Moscow.

By Ronan Wordsworth - January 5, 2024

After three decades of treating the African continent mostly as an afterthought, the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to curb the growing influence of its biggest rivals. The new approach was detailed in an August 2022 report, “U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa,” which described plans for a more pragmatic Africa policy and greater engagement in the realms of security and economics. Then, in December 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden hosted leaders and senior officials from 49 African countries in Washington. This new U.S. focus on pragmatic engagement across multiple sectors became increasingly evident throughout 2023.

From the Cold War to Wagner

After the first wave of decolonization dislodged European powers from Africa from the mid-1950s until the early 1960s, the global competition between two new superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, cast a shadow over the continent. To contain Soviet influence and communist ideology, the U.S. formed partnerships and provided financial and security aid to friendly African governments as well as groups opposed to pro-Soviet regimes. When the Cold War ended, Africa tumbled down the list of U.S. foreign policy priorities. In most cases where it became involved, Washington tended to stress adherence to Western ideals like democracy, transparency and human rights, which often clashed with the interests of authoritarian African regimes. With Washington offering less but demanding more, growing numbers of Africans questioned whether the U.S. could meet their countries’ needs.

Into this vacuum stepped Russia and China. The Chinese offered investment, but the Russians offered guns. Initially through the mercenary Wagner Group, Russian forces spread in and around the Sahel – in Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya, the Central African Republic and Sudan – and entrenched themselves in the national security infrastructure (not to mention lucrative mining concerns). Western-led efforts to isolate Russia over its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine spurred Moscow to dedicate even more attention and resources to Africa, where friendly governments help Russia resist international political pressure, evade sanctions and threaten U.S. allies in Europe with energy insecurity and mass migration. For the U.S., it was clear that a new strategy was urgently needed.

Trade, Investment and Diplomacy

Outlined during the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit in 2022, the first major change was a U.S. commitment to invest $55 billion in the continent over the next three years. In year one, the U.S. and Africa signed hundreds of deals worth at least $14.2 billion. These included U.S. investments in minor infrastructure projects, local industrial development and green energy projects. Washington also established Prosper Africa, an initiative that connects U.S. and African businesses to facilitate trade and investment.

A potent example of the shifting U.S. policy is in southern Africa, where the U.S. (with EU support) is looking to counter Chinese dominance in the critical minerals sector. For well over a decade (and with minimal competition), Beijing has been snapping up African mineral rights and pouring money into African infrastructure. But now the U.S., through the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment fund, is trying to catch up. The headline project, the Lobito Corridor, involves building a railway connection between the mineral-rich regions of the southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia’s copper belt and Angola. A memorandum of understanding was signed in October, and the African Development Bank promised to help raise $1.6 billion in financing, in addition to contributing $500 million itself. Upon its completion (which U.S. officials claim could be within five years), the corridor will support regional trade and provide an efficient route for the region’s minerals to reach the Atlantic coast and then U.S. and European markets.

Besides trade and investment, Biden administration officials also have traveled frequently to Africa. To name a few, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia; First Lady Jill Biden went to Namibia and Kenya; Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with officials in South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda in August; and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stopped by Djibouti, Kenya and Angola in September. For the first time in decades, U.S. department heads and bureaucrats were instructed to step up their engagement with the continent.

Bases and Security Assistance

Managing security relationships posed a tougher test, but Washington’s newfound pragmatism is on display here too. When Niger suffered a military coup, the U.S. resisted pressure from allies, particularly France, to condemn the actions of the new junta. Its caution paid off. French military bases in the country were closed and French forces were expelled, while American troops at a U.S. drone base remain. (In another setback for Paris, U.S. mining company Global Atomic has moved into Niger’s uranium mining sector, which was previously dominated by French state mining company Orano.) Even the military junta’s outreach to Russia has not radically changed the U.S. approach.

Another example is the Central African Republic. Through the Wagner Group, the Russian security establishment has tightly bound itself to the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadera and exerts significant control over the CAR’s economy. However, the government in Bangui evidently has not shut the door on the United States, because it is reportedly in discussions with U.S. military contractor Bancroft on the establishment of a military base. Bancroft would also train CAR forces, protect mining sites and provide security against armed groups in the country. The contractor has extensive experience in Africa and working with the U.S. military, having spent the past decade operating in Somalia, where it supported U.S. and government forces against the al-Shabab terrorist group. Considering this history, U.S. officials were likely aware of the discussions, though they deny having been involved. However, Russian media expressed surprise at the news. Many of the functions Bancroft would provide are already being managed by the Russian military, which has taken over Wagner’s contracts, making the potential deal a direct challenge to Moscow’s influence in Bangui.

After many years of detachment, the U.S. is making Africa a priority again. This is largely in response to China’s maneuvers to control the continent’s strategic minerals and Russia’s attempts to replace Western countries as security providers and to circumvent Western sanctions. The U.S.’ more pragmatic strategy is already bearing fruit, but it is unclear how successful it will be over the longer term.-

About: Ronan Wordsworth is an analyst for Geopolitical Futures. He completed a Masters in Geopolitical Studies at Charles University in Prague in 2022. He has an ongoing association with the University, including assisting an ongoing project of African University partnerships and is co-host of a Geopolitics Podcast. Prior to undertaking the master’s program, Mr Wordsworth completed a Bachelor of Civil Engineering from the University of Sydney and spent nine years working across Australia, Europe, and Southern Africa working up to the level of Senior Project Manager providing experience in statistical analytics.

The US Re-Engages With Africa - Geopolitical Futures

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Energie

Biden stoppt Genehmigung neuer LNG-Exporte

Die USA sind der gr??te Flüssiggas-Exporteur der Welt.?Doch nun drosselt die US-Regierung wegen des Klimawandels wom?glich künftige LNG-Exporte. Das k?nnte auch Deutschland treffen.

von Annett Meiritz, Klaus Stratmann, Katharina Kort - 26.01.2024

Washington, Berlin. Die Entscheidung hatte sich seit einigen Tagen abgezeichnet, jetzt ist es offiziell: US-Pr?sident Joe Biden will die steigenden Gasexporte der USA drosseln und stoppt eine Reihe bereits geplanter Ausfuhrgenehmigungen für Flüssigerdgas (LNG).?Am Freitag gab das Wei?e Haus bekannt, dass die US-Regierung alle neuen Entscheidungen zu LNG-Exporten so lange aussetzen werde, bis das Energieministerium neue Kriterien für Genehmigungen vorlegt.

Damit k?nnte mittelfristig auch die Versorgung Deutschlands mit amerikanischen Flüssiggas gef?hrdet sein. Schlie?lich ist Deutschland seit dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine st?rker abh?ngig von amerikanischen LNG-Schiffen geworden. Mit einer m?glichen Blockade k?nnte die Zukunft von mehr als einem Dutzend Gasexportterminals an der Küste des Golfs von Mexiko gef?hrdet sein.

An der amerikanischen Golfküste?kommt das meist durch Fracking gewonnene Gas aus Texas und Louisiana und aus weiter entfernten Bundesstaaten wie Oklahoma und Pennsylvania an. Dort wird es in speziellen Terminals unter gro?em Energieeinsatz auf minus 161 Grad Celsius gekühlt und damit verflüssigt. Wegen der hohen Nachfrage wachsen dort aktuell die Export-Kapazit?ten.

Es gibt auch direkte Abkommen zwischen deutschen Unternehmen und amerikanischen LNG-Konzernen. So hat sich etwa der deutsche Chemiekonzern BASF im August für die Zeit zwischen 2026 und 2043 LNG-Lieferungen von j?hrlich 800.000 Tonnen vom gr??ten US-Flüssiggaskonzern Cheniere gesichert.

Die Prüfung der US-Regierung soll Monate dauern und die ?kologischen Auswirkungen von LNG-Exporten auf den Klimawandel st?rker berücksichtigen. Von Umweltschützern werden LNG-Exporte als Kohlenstoff-?Megabomben“ bezeichnet werden, weil sie enorme Mengen Treibhausgase verursachen. Biden sagte in einer Erkl?rung: ?Wir werden die Auswirkungen von LNG-Exporten auf die Energiekosten, die Energiesicherheit Amerikas und unsere Umwelt genau unter die Lupe nehmen. Denn die Klimakrise ist die existenzielle Bedrohung unserer Zeit.“

Einer Analyse des Wei?en Hauses zufolge würden, wenn alle geplanten LNG-Projekte ungebremst weiterlaufen, 3,2 Milliarden Tonnen Treibhausgase zus?tzlich freigesetzt. Das w?re mehr, als die gesamte Europ?ische Union in einem Jahr emittiert.

LNG-Exporte der USA seit 2018 deutlich gestiegen

US-Regierungsbeamte versicherten, dass die Pause den Wirtschaftspartnern der USA nicht schaden werde, da der Plan Ausnahmen für die nationale Sicherheit vorsehe, falls diese mehr LNG ben?tigten. Im Zuge der Energiekrise nach dem Beginn des Ukrainekriegs hatten die USA ihre LNG-Exporte insbesondere in die EU massiv erh?ht.

Die letzte überprüfung von LNG-Exportprojekten der Amerikaner fand 2018, w?hrend der Pr?sidentschaft von Donald Trump, statt. Seitdem haben sich die LNG-Exporte verdreifacht, die USA sind im vergangenen Jahr zum weltweit gr??ten Flüssiggas-Exporteur aufgestiegen. 2023 verlie?en laut US-Daten 88,9 Millionen Tonnen LNG das Land.

>> Lesen Sie hier:?Deutschlands Gasversorgung steht auf unsicherem Fundament

Umweltschützer begrü?ten den Schritt am Freitag. Teile der US-Wirtschaft reagierten hingegen wütend. Die US-Handelskammer, die gr??te Lobbyorganisation für Unternehmen, teilte?mit: ?LNG spielt eine wesentliche Rolle in der Energiewende, indem es schmutzigeres russisches Gas und emissionsreichere Energiequellen verdr?ngt, auf die Europa, Japan und andere L?nder der Welt noch immer angewiesen sind.“

Bidens Entscheidung sei ?zutiefst beunruhigend und birgt erhebliche Risiken. Er verr?t unsere Verbündeten in einer Zeit der geopolitischen Instabilit?t.“

Gasimporteur Sefe sieht Stabilit?t der europ?ischen Energiem?rkte betroffen

Die Bundesregierung kommentierte die aktuelle Entwicklung zurückhaltend. Eine Sprecherin des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums sagte, man beobachte die Lage in den USA genau. Man k?nne aber noch keine Bewertung vornehmen. Die Versorgungssicherheit bestehe weiter, sagte die Sprecherin.

Sefe, einer der gro?en Gasimporteure Deutschlands, sieht die Ankündigung kritisch: ?Das von der US-Regierung einseitig beschlossene Moratorium betrifft uns als Unternehmen und generell die Stabilit?t und Versorgungssicherheit der europ?ischen Energiem?rkte. Wir werden nun gemeinsam mit unseren Partnern in den USA die Folgen einer solchen Entscheidung bewerten“, hie? es bei Sefe.

Für Deutschland kommt die Entscheidung zu einem ungünstigen Zeitpunkt. Die Bundesregierung arbeitet seit Beginn des Ukrainekrieges im Februar 2022 intensiv daran, die weggefallenen russischen Gaslieferungen zu ersetzen. LNG aus den USA spielt in den Pl?nen der Bundesregierung eine Schlüsselrolle. In Deutschland setzen viele Marktakteure darauf, die Lieferbeziehungen mit den USA deutlich auszubauen.

Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck (Grüne) und Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hatten in den vergangenen beiden Jahren bei ihren Besuchen in den USA um LNG-Lieferungen geworben. Deutsche Gasimporteure schlossen entsprechende Vertr?ge. So hatten beispielsweise Uniper, RWE und Sefe langfristige Deals mit US-Unternehmen besiegelt.?

Auch in anderen L?ndern, etwa in Katar, Kanada oder in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, warb die Bundesregierung um LNG. Allerdings k?nnen die LNG-Lieferungen das russische Pipelinegas nur zum Teil ersetzen.?

Gasbranche befürchtet Preissteigerungen

Der deutschen Gaswirtschaft bereitet die Entwicklung in den USA Sorge. Dass das neu beschaffte LNG das früher aus Russland bezogene Gas noch nicht vollst?ndig ersetzt, unterstreiche die Notwendigkeit fortlaufender und erh?hter LNG-Importe aus den USA sowie langfristiger Vertr?ge, sagte Timm Kehler, Chef des Branchenverbandes Zukunft Gas, dem Handelsblatt.

Energie: Biden stoppt Genehmigung neuer LNG-Exporte (handelsblatt.com)

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Arab Mediators Propose New Hostage-Release Plan to End Israel-Hamas War

Latest proposal comes as CIA chief visits Europe to advance talks

By Summer Said - Chao Deng - Jan. 27, 2024

International mediators are proposing a deal to secure the release of all the remaining hostages in Gaza in exchange for a roughly four-month cease-fire.

The plan offered to Israel and Hamas would lead to an end to the war in Gaza, Egyptian officials said Saturday.

The new proposal comes as Central Intelligence Agency Director William J. Burns meets in Paris this weekend with the Qatari prime minister, and negotiators from the Egyptian and Israeli intelligence agencies, for talks aimed at ending the war, officials familiar with the plan said.

The proposal calls for an initial pause in fighting of six weeks to allow for the release of children, women and elderly in need of urgent medical attention. In exchange, Israel would set free a significant number of Palestinian prisoners and increase the flow of aid into Gaza, the Egyptian officials said. The following phases would see Hamas releasing Israeli female soldiers, then male soldiers and human remains, these officials said.

In return, Hamas would get international guarantees, including from the U.S., that during the pause in fighting a comprehensive agreement would be reached that would lead to a permanent end to the war that has engulfed Gaza since Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7. The U.S. has designated Hamas a terrorist organization.

Israel says 1,200 people were killed in the attacks, most of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities, and over 240 taken hostage.

Israel and Hamas have yet to officially respond to the latest proposal, which was made in recent days and tries to bridge the gap between the two sides on key issues, the officials said. It doesn’t mean a deal is imminent, they added.

Both sides have rejected several proposals made via Egypt and Qatar following the end of the last cease-fire on Nov. 30, but they now largely agree on a framework that includes several phases and a potential long-term cease-fire, the officials said.

Hamas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Israel is “fully committed to the release of all hostages and to destroying Hamas” and “will continue to do whatever possible to ensure the release of all hostages,” said an Israeli official.

The latest proposal comes as fighting rages in the militant group’s last major stronghold, the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. Israel says that senior Hamas figures are hiding in tunnels under Khan Younis with at least some of the hostages.

The war has taken a devastating toll on Gaza’s 2.2 million residents, most of whom are now displaced within the enclave and are facing a shortage of food, medicines, clean water and other basic goods.

More than 26,000 people, a majority women and children, have been killed in the war in Gaza, according to health authorities in the strip. That figure doesn’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.

Israel and Hamas remain far apart on key issues such as when Israeli forces would leave Gaza and when Palestinians forced from their homes by Israeli evacuation orders will be allowed to return, the officials said.

In November, 105 hostages were released, most of them Israeli civilian women and children, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel and a weeklong cease-fire. Around 130 hostages remain captive in Gaza, including 19 women and two children, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. Some of the women are Israeli soldiers. Five of the female hostages are dead, Israeli authorities have said.

On Saturday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Qatar should put more pressure on Hamas to release hostages, amid heightened tensions between the two countries after weeks of strained negotiations over a hostage deal.

“I won’t give up even on a single way to apply pressure on Hamas, or on whoever can apply pressure to Hamas, in order to return our hostages,” he said. “Qatar hosts Hamas leaders, it funds Hamas, it has influence over Hamas.”

The verbal feud has created friction between the two countries, but didn’t appear to deter American efforts aimed at ending the war in Gaza and containing a broader Middle East conflict, stretching from Yemen to Lebanon.

The CIA chief’s return is expected to inject new momentum into the talks. Burns has played a central role in U.S. diplomatic efforts around Gaza, and was a key negotiator in last November’s weeklong truce.

Arab Mediators Propose New Hostage-Release Plan to End Israel-Hamas War - WSJ

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