The US is projected to encounter a deficit of approximately 6 million indispensable Talents by 2032 !
Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Global People Analytics & HR Data Leader - People & Culture | Strategical People Analytics Design
?? The US is experiencing a significant loss of irreplaceable talent. The retirement wave of Baby Boomers is expected to impact each region, industry, and occupation in distinct ways.
?? Of the five million individuals who have exited the labor force since 2020, 80% are over 55 years old, a phenomenon researchers have termed "The Silver Tsunami".
?? There is a surge of Generation Z in the U.S. labor market.
?? The participation of working-age men in the labor force has been declining, and the alternatives to fill these vacancies are quite restricted.
?? Without immigration, working-age people will start to disappear from the US labor force, according to a new interesting research published by Lightcast using data ?? from a survey of US Census Bureau Current Population.
?A declining number of working-age individuals
Starting in 2024 and continuing through 2027, researchers have noted that the number of Americans reaching the age of 65 will hit record levels, with over 11,000 individuals turning 65 each day, amounting to more than 4 million annually.
The massive wave of Boomer retirements is creating a need for unparalleled efficiency among all labor market participants, highlighting the importance of intentional, data-informed solutions.
?Comparison of U.S. Population Growth and Labor Force Expansion
Researchers have predicted that between 2024 and 2032, the growth of the US population will nearly outpace that of the labor force by a ratio of 8 to 1.
?? The working-age population in the US is projected to increase by 18.7 million by 2032, yet the labor force participation rate is anticipated to decline from approximately 62.5% to 60.4%.
?? This means that while there will be more people, a smaller percentage of them will be employed. Compared to the present day, that’s a deficit of roughly 6 million workers.
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?The surge of Generation Z in the U.S. labor market and The Silver Tsunami
Researchers have observed that Baby Boomers now constitute the second-smallest generation within the US labor force, comprising approximately 15% of it.
As much as the Boomers were motivated to work in past decades, they’re now on their way out of the workplace. This wave of retirements—“The Silver Tsunami”— has been coming for a long time, but the pandemic accelerated it. The LFPR for people age 55 and older dropped sharply over the first few months of 2020.
?? Additionally, researchers emphasize that retirees, being out of the labor force yet still needing goods and services, rely on the working-age adult population to provide these for them. This situation is known as "old-age dependency," and the ratio of old-age dependents to the working population is increasing at a faster rate.
?? Researchers have addressed the question of whether AI and automation can compensate for the declining labor force participation. The concise answer is negative. Not in the foreseeable future, and certainly not in the sectors that are most desperate for workers. The necessary tools are not yet available, and the industries that urgently require more labor are the ones least likely to be supplanted by AI.
?? ???? ???????????????? ????????: This insightful research on the forecast of the US population indicates that after years of growth, labor force participation among older Americans is now declining, a phenomenon researchers have termed 'The Silver Tsunami'. This data is crucial for leaders to plan their hiring strategies for the coming years. It is also noteworthy that AI and automation are not expected to offset the decline in labor force participation in the short term. Meaningful assistance from automation is still some distance away, and the full impact of this trend has yet to be felt.
??Thank you Lightcast researchers team for sharing these insightful findings:
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Human Resource Professional | MBA | Coporate Recruiting Professional- ASA | Ex-Wirtgen Group,A John Deere Company
2 个月Very Insightful! Thank you for sharing this very informative and important research.
Speaker, Author, Professor, Thought Partner on Human Capability (talent, leadership, organization, HR)
2 个月Nicolas BEHBAHANI Very interesting macro labor market research. No one should be surprised by baby boomers (born 1946 to 1964) retiring. This bulge in the talent pipeline has been evident for some time. Hopefully, with more global talent pools labor will flow to countries where there are good jobs, and technology may mean more flexible ways to get work done. Also some have suggested the people may live to be 100 and work in more flexible jobs longer (Lynda Gratton). But, demographic trends will affect many countries, e.g., China because of 1 child policy for so long. Organizations might invest in succession planning as they look at the age of their executive teams and broader employee population. Thanks for this more macro view!
LinkedIn Top Voices in Company Culture USA & Canada I Executive Advisor | HR Leader (CHRO) | Leadership Coach | Talent Strategy | Change Leadership | Innovation Culture | Healthcare | Higher Education
2 个月Thank you for sharing Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Industry Veteran | Exploring Future of Work | Great Manager’s Coach & Mentor
2 个月Mission Critical,????for sharing, Nicolas BEHBAHANI. - In the USA, by 2032, we are looking at a talent retirement of 6 million.? - In UK, the situation is equally concerning, the avg retirement is rising by 13.26% from 2000 - 2020 (Age.Calculator.com) ?? Neither the influx of younger generations nor AI / Automation can fully bridge this gap, & migration is a challenge. ?? This trend is likely to be mirrored globally, with some variations. ? The ideal approach is to?PREPARE: P?-?Policies by Govt: May follow Countries on age increase, OR mass people development R?-?Recruitment, by Org. which is very innovative & strategic. E?-?Education & Training: Continuous learning - upskill & reskill workforce. P?-?Partnerships with educational institutions to build pipeline. A?-?Automation: Leveraging automation for creating new job. R?-?Retention which is very innovative - incl. after retirement - GIG. E?-?Engagement - Meaningful work, Wellness & Career Development.
People Business Partner | HRBP | People Operations Manager | Talent Management | RRHH | P&C | área Manager
2 个月In my oppinions Nicolas BEHBAHANI, The shortage of labour in some sectors and qualified profiles is a global structural problem and will be a challenge for great leaders and organisations. Major changes will have to be adopted in talent management strategies, adapting and innovating, promoting policies such as: -Creating constant development and training programmes to attract and retain employees. -Developing inclusive recruitment programmes that promote diversity and the return of people who have retired or left the workforce, either due to age or for migratory reasons. -Adapting to the future of work by investing in creating work environments that are flexible and attractive, taking into account well-being, culture and talent retention.