US private space sector climbs higher while Russian equivalent declines

On March 30, 2017 SpaceX successfully launched a commercial satellite into orbit with a previously used first stage booster—a feat never before accomplished and one that may launch a cheaper era of space travel.[i] The successes of the private space industry in the West is widely reported. Less well known is the continued demise of the Russian space industry.

Also on March 30, 2017, the Moscow Times reported that an investigation into quality control issues in the Russian space industry reported that nearly every engine currently stockpiled for use in Russian Proton rockets is defective. This investigation followed a catastrophic year for Russian space launch. In December 2016 a Russian Progress resupply craft burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere shortly after liftoff from Baikonur Cosmodrome, the twentieth malfunction of a Russian launcher since 2001. See the following video for a memorable crash from 2013 caused by sensors improperly installed by a technician, epitomizing the decline of a historically reliable launch system.

Another potential, albeit early and leading, indicator of the crisis in the Russian space sector is that last year Russia fell behind the United States and China in the number of space launches. Russia finished 2016 with just 18 launches, compared to China's 19 and America's 20 launches.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia focused on forming an internationally competitive public space sector and consciously chose not to establish a competitive private space sector. Russia's Skolkovo Innovation Center space cluster does provide support for private Russian companies, but numerous institutional factors in the Russian Federation will continue to challenge space entrepreneurs, and Roscosmos will likely gobble up those that show any promise. The one likely exception to this stagnation turns out to be in national security space capabilities.

           More broadly, the overall Russian space enterprise wallows in a systemic crisis due to multiple factors and, despite positive rhetoric from the government, likely faces yet another generation of stagnation and decreasing market share. In the best case, which seems unlikely, Russia will survive and protect its own systems, while slowly rebuilding its once great national space capability. Even under this best-case scenario, it would likely take a generation to address the many systemic issues facing Russia. The worst-case scenario is a complete collapse of the Russian space sector except for military capabilities. This also seems unlikely given the numerous, albeit modest, attempts to generate a private space sector in Russia and the government’s clear priority on national security and public organizations.

           The most probable path for the Russian space sector is enduring stagnation with the odd success outside of critical national security missions, but nothing akin to its former glory. Sadly, following twenty-five years of opportunity, Russia space is a poster child for how not to evolve for the next century of space challenges.