US Presidential Elections Will Feature Iran in Slogans of ‘Trump for Peace’ Vs ‘Biden for Wars’

President Joe Biden's administration is taking a risky gamble by betting on the pragmatism of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its readiness for regional cooperation even as Tehran's active involvement in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon through its proxies challenges the United States and its interests. The success so far in deterring Iran through a carrot-and-stick approach should be seen as part of temporary breakthroughs rather than reflecting a fundamental shift in Iranian strategy and ideology. In addition, the cards that the White House holds have many holes in them, due to the evident decline of American influence in Israel and its policies. The Biden team has practically placed the fate of its foreign policies in the hands of the ideological extremists in Israel and Iran, where the currency of trust is worthless. Meanwhile, the team of former President Donald Trump is working to push the messaging that "Trump stands for peace and Biden stands for war," suggesting that Trump's presidency was conflict-free, while Biden's presidency has been saddled with war from Ukraine, to Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.?

The Houthis have disrupted international navigation in the Red Sea with Iranian blessing, regardless of Tehran's denial. The military capabilities of the Houthis are not homegrown but are provided by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with help from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the most crucial arm of Tehran. The goal is to execute Iran’s agendas, whether against Saudi Arabia in recent years or against maritime navigation now, under the pretext of supporting Palestinians in the face of Israel's war on Gaza.?

The problem with Biden's administration is that it is attempting to navigate a middle line between diplomacy and ultimatums, hoping to avoid having to carry out its threats. But the limited U.S. and British military operations against the Houthis in Yemen are unlikely to succeed in eliminating the Houthis and their Iranian arsenal, if the White House avoids directly holding Tehran responsible.?

The Biden administration has demonstrated a need for Iranian goodwill and a readiness to reward it. The administration believes President Biden's efforts have succeeded in containing the Gaza war and prevented its escalation into a regional war, beginning with Lebanon, through Iranian cooperation in curbing Hezbollah in exchange for secret U.S.-Iranian agreements involving releasing Iranian funds and the potential lifting of sanctions later.?

But the Trump team accuse the Biden team of political naivety. They say the main reasons behind Tehran's cooperation is its inability to engage in a military confrontation with Israel with U.S. support. Secondly, Iran does not have to get itself directly involved in a war with Israel and against American interests, as long as its proxies can do this job for it. Thirdly, Iran's nuclear pragmatism requires strategic patience until completing the nuclear program, perhaps within a year. Therefore, Iranian goodwill should be seen as an investment that buys time to develop Iranian nuclear capabilities and Iranian proxies.?

One thing that ties Biden team's hands up towards the Houthis, for instance, is their desire for successful peace negotiating in Yemen which requires appeasing the Houthis and avoiding a retaliation towards Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea. The Biden administration removed the Houthis from the terrorist list not only to entice them to make deals but also to show up the recklessness of the Trump administration when it designated the Houthis as terrorists and tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran.?

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Today, the Biden administration finds itself between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, it cannot sit idly by the Houthi challenges to international navigation safety in the Red Sea and has launched limited military operations—rather than an outright war against the Houthis in Yemen. On the other hand, the Biden administration realizes that its operations will not eliminate the military capabilities of the Houthis, as Yemen’s terrain shares similarities with Afghanistan. This limits the effectiveness of aerial operations and hampers the ability to destroy mobile missiles hidden in caves.?

More significantly, the Biden administration has bought into the Iranian government's claim that it has no direct involvement in Houthi operations and that Tehran has not provided new weapons to the Houthis. The reason behind the Biden administration's reluctance to challenge Iran's deniability regarding Houthi activities in the Red Sea is the need for Iran to continue refraining from escalation in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.?

Yet the Trump team views this as a surrender to Iranian blackmail and a perilous gamble for the United States and its interests. They argue that the current American approach implies American weakness at its core, suggesting that America is suffering from a strategic breakdown. They believe that the Biden administration's weakness in the face of the Iranian government reflects the weakness of the Democratic Party itself, which began during the era of President Barack Obama—who made a major strategic pivot towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.?

But the Democrats like to remind the Republicans that it was former President George W. Bush who gifted Iraq to the Islamic Republic of Iran on a silver platter when he invaded and occupied Iraq, cleansing it from the ruling Ba'ath Party at the time. This directly led to the resurgence of the Revolutionary Guard which oversees Iran’s proxies. George W. Bush summoned terrorists to fight them in Iraq instead of fighting them in American cities, as he stated. When he "purged" Iraq and its army from the Ba'athists, Bush contributed to the creation of ISIS, which Iran then used as an excuse to expand its control over Iraq. Iran established the Popular Mobilization Forces and other factions similar to Hezbollah, obedient to its orders, demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq as they conducted military operations against American bases and interests in Syria and elsewhere.?

Tehran has successfully "institutionalized" its influence within the Iraqi government, particularly after the PMF became part of the Iraqi Armed Forces. Established in 2014 as armed Shiite factions in response to a fatwa from the top Shiite cleric, Ali al-Sistani, after the fall of Mosul to ISIS, the PMF continued to diminish the Iraqi state's authority, expanding Iran's grip on Iraq. Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani has yet to issue a new fatwa restricting the PMF and restoring full sovereignty to the Iraqi state.?

From Iraq to Syria, Yemen to Lebanon, Iran continues to violate the sovereignty of these countries, providing military and political support for non-state forces and militias under its command, directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hamas differs from Iranian proxies as it receives support from diversified sources, and its situation is different from that of the Iraqi PMF and Lebanese Hezbollah in relation to Iran.?

The problem with the Biden administration is that it has chosen diplomatic investment with Iran, while the Islamic Republic of Iran still invests militarily to cause problems for the United States. It continues to support factions and militias vehemently opposing the United States and resisting its presence in the region.?

Why diplomatic investment might be a wise decision to avoid a potential Middle East war that could escalate to a global conflict and a successful gamble, it does not amount to a strategy. It is an American gamble without it producing a strategic entente with Iran.?

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As long as the Biden administration treads cautiously in its policies towards both Israel and Iran, it may struggle to make the necessary leap from transitional arrangements to the grand deal it dreams of for regional settlement. Some believe betting on diplomacy is the only way, and the Biden team can build on it to reach a grand settlement. They think if Donald Trump were in office, the region would have entered into an expansive war, perhaps even a world war.?

But a close confidant of Donald Trump told me that "This election could bring more wars if Biden wins, compared to more peace if Trump returns to the White House." He added that the Gaza war would not have occurred at all if Trump were president, recalling that during Trump's presidency, no wars erupted, while under Biden's tenure, there was a war in Ukraine and not just the Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza.?

The confidant of the former president added that Trump would not succumb to Iranian blackmail and would not fall into the trap of soft diplomacy when Iran’s tentacles are growing.?

One last aspect to highlight is the necessity of keeping an eye on what may unfold in the Syrian arena. There the Biden administration may decide to show skeptics that it is not a paper tiger, that it is adept at the use of military and diplomatic means when needed, and fully understands the prospects of Iranian maneuvering.?

So let us wait and see.?