US Net Migration Trends: The Top 5 Cities Gaining and Losing Population

Understanding net migration trends in the U.S. is crucial for passive multifamily investors looking to optimize their investments. It’s an indicator that can help guide you on market trends that ultimately, you can potentially profit from. Real estate investing isn’t rocket science; where the people go, so does the increased demand for housing. It’s an important data point to observe with consistency.

So, let’s take a look at the most significant population gains and losses, alongside the average apartment rents and, just for the fun of the season we’re in, political affiliations, of the 5 cities that gained and lost the most in overall population:

Updated Migration Trends (2024)

Top Gaining Cities:

#1 : Austin, Texas

• Population Growth: +1.5% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $1,788 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2023, All Classes): $238,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

Austin's market has cooled with a significant increase in vacancy rates due to new supply. However, the city's strong population growth and future demand prospects make it a key area for long-term investment.

#2 : Tampa, Florida

• Population Growth: +0.8% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $2,144 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): Around $210,000
• Political Affiliation: Red

Tampa continues to attract investment with ongoing population growth, making it a hotspot for multifamily investments.

#3 : Orlando, Florida

• Population Growth: +0.8% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $1,915 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): Approximately $200,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

Orlando remains a strong market with continued demand driven by its thriving tourism and service industries.

#4 : Charlotte, North Carolina

• Population Growth: +0.7% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $1,721 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): $180,000 to $200,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

Charlotte's growing economy and population make it an attractive market for multifamily investments, with competitive pricing per unit compared to other major cities.

#5 : Nashville, Tennessee

• Population Growth: +0.6% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $1,759 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2023, All Classes): $218,000 to $255,000
• Political Affiliation: Red

Nashville has seen a significant amount of construction, with a strong future demand expected due to its rapid population growth. However, the market has recently experienced an increase in vacancy rates.

Top Losing Cities:

#1 : San Francisco, California

• Population Decline: -1.1% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $3,695 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): $296,243
• Political Affiliation: Blue

San Francisco's multifamily market remains expensive, though prices have softened due to economic uncertainties and shifts in the tech industry.

#2 : New York, New York

• Population Decline: -1.2% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $4,265 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): Approximately $300,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

New York's multifamily market is among the tightest in the U.S., with vacancy rates at historic lows, driving up per-unit prices despite a recent slowdown in sales volume.

#3 : Los Angeles, California

• Population Decline: -0.9% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $2,719?per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2023, All Classes): $220,000 - $350,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

These figures reflect the broader trends in the Los Angeles multifamily market, which has seen a decrease in prices due to various economic factors but still remains robust due to the city's significant rental demand, despite the loss of population.

#4 : Chicago, Illinois

• Population Decline: -0.7% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $2,057 per month?
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): $230,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

Chicago has seen stable pricing despite slow population growth, supported by demand in the urban core.

#5 : Boston, Massachusetts

• Population Decline: -0.6% (Q1 2022 - Q1 2023)
• Average Apartment Rent: $3,752 per month
• Average Price Per Unit (2024, All Classes): $290,000
• Political Affiliation: Blue

Boston remains one of the country's tightest markets, with a high demand for luxury apartments, particularly in Intown Boston and surrounding areas.

The average prices per unit generally reflects the entire market for multifamily properties, encompassing various asset classes, including Class A, B, and C. However, specific values can vary depending on the class of the property.

• Class A properties?typically command higher per-unit prices due to their premium locations, newer construction, and top-tier amenities. These are often found in high-demand urban centers.
• Class B properties?tend to have lower per-unit prices compared to Class A, as they are usually older buildings with fewer amenities but still located in desirable areas. They often appeal to middle-income tenants.
• Class C properties?have the lowest per-unit prices. These are usually older buildings in less desirable locations and may require more maintenance.

In markets like San Francisco and New York, the averages likely skew higher due to a greater proportion of Class A properties, which dominate those markets. In contrast, markets like Nashville and Charlotte might include more Class B and C properties in their averages, reflecting the broader range of available inventory.

These trends highlight a continued population shift towards the Sun Belt and smaller to mid-sized cities with more affordable living conditions, while traditional economic centers in the Northeast and West Coast are experiencing declines. This data can guide your multifamily investment strategies by focusing on cities with growing populations and strong rental markets.

P.S. If one of your priorities, like mine, is building and preserving your wealth through multifamily real estate investments, click here to download my new eBook: The Ultimate Guide to Creating & Preserving Your Wealth.

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Sources:

KVIA Report on Migration and Political Trends (2024)

Bank of America Institute Report ?Hilldrup Migration Trends Analysis (2024)

Hilldrup Migration Trends Analysis (2024)

Matthews Real Estate Investment Services

Marcus & Millichap

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About Ellie Perlman

Ellie Perlman is the founder of Blue Lake Capital, a commercial real estate investment firm specializing in multifamily investing throughout the United States. At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie partners with both institutional and individual investors to grow their wealth by achieving double-digit returns by investing alongside her in exclusive multifamily deals they usually don't have access to.

A defining factor of Blue Lake Capital’s strategy is founded in utilizing machine learning/artificial intelligence throughout the course of all acquisitions and asset management. This advanced technology enables the company to produce accurate and data-driven forecasting for all assets on a market, property, and even tenant basis. In doing so, Blue Lake is able to lead commercial investments with the full capabilities of today’s technology.

Ellie is the founding host of REady2Scale , a podcast that highlights the assets, processes, and strategies for the multiple approaches to successful real estate investing.

She started her career as a commercial real estate lawyer, leading real estate transactions for one of Israel’s leading development companies. Later, as a property manager for Israel’s largest energy company, she oversaw properties worth over $100MM. Additionally, Ellie is an experienced entrepreneur who helped build and scale companies by improving their business operations.

Ellie holds a Masters in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.

You can read more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com .

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