U.S. LNG Exports Are Not Raising Consumer Natural Gas Prices, Consumer Electricity Prices, Or Emissions.
Ron Miller, PE, MBA, CEM, REP
Energy Industry Consultant | Conventional Power | Renewables | Decarbonization | Professional Speaker | Author | College Instructor
On Tuesday, 14 Jan 2025, Jamie Skaar posted “Federal Study: Natural Gas Exports Creating 'Triple Threat' to Consumers” as shown below.
The Department of Energy just released a landmark study confirming what many feared: The massive expansion of U.S. natural gas exports is creating a triple threat of higher electricity bills, increased gas prices, and rising emissions. Let's break down what this means for American consumers: 1. The Scale Challenge - U.S. gas exports have tripled in five years - Already approved: Half of America's total production - For perspective: We export only 10% of gasoline - Set to double again by 2030 under current plans 2. The Price Impact - Natural gas prices projected to rise 31% by 2050 - Average households paying $122 more annually - Electricity bills increasing 3.5% - Industrial sector facing $125 billion in added costs 3. The Market Transformation - Domestic prices now tied to global markets - Americans competing with overseas buyers - Less price stability for U.S. consumers - Industrial leaders calling for policy protection Here's what makes this DOE report significant: For the first time, federal energy officials are explicitly warning that unrestricted exports are fundamentally changing the economics of American energy markets—and not in consumers' favor. Question for energy leaders: Given these findings, what policy frameworks could better protect domestic energy users while maintaining export opportunities? How should regulators approach the 60-day comment period? #EnergyPolicy #ConsumerProtection #MarketIntelligence
This post is erroneous as follows:
LNG exports are not the cause of: 1) electricity bills increasing for U.S. consumers, 2) natural gas bills increasing for U.S. consumers, or 3) rising emissions.?
From the graphs below, the U.S. has dramatically increased LNG exports at a 35% annual growth rate since 2016. During this same period, other than the increased demand for U.S. LNG to help out Europe due to the Ukraine invasion in 2022, Henry Hub natural gas prices have remained in the $3.50-$4.00 per dekatherm range. With all the exports of LNG, gas prices have remained relatively-stable.
Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports In Million Cubic Feet History 2016-2024 vs. U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Price History 2016-2024.
The U.S. annual electricity inflation rate from 2008-2020 after the fracking revolution and followed by U.S. export of LNG, is a fraction (34%) of the electricity inflation rate 1990-2008. Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183700/us-average-retail-electricity-price-since-1990/
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Average Retail Electricity Prices 1990-2020
Emissions from the energy sector has been on a downward curve ever since the fracking revolution started in the U.S. in 2008. Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/
Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions 1975-2020
From the facts I have presented, what are your concerns from your original post that: 1) unrestricted exports are fundamentally changing the economics of American energy markets, and 2) domestic energy users need protection from LNG exports?
#JamieSkarr
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