U.S. Leisure Travel Holds Steady with Prior Year in October, but Can Leisure Travel Single-Handedly Save Tourism?

Domestic travel entered the fourth quarter with demand continuing to run below prior year levels in October. Omnitrak’s Travel Market Penetration Index decreased in October to 85.2 (2015=100) – echoing the index score seen in the prior month of September 2024 (87.9), but notably below prior year October 2023 (98.7) levels.

Compared seasonally to historic October Travel Market Penetration Index levels, October 2024 indexed at 79.7 (2015=100) – well below prior year October 2023 (92.3) levels.

Omnitrak’s Leisure Travel Index (which excludes trips for visiting friends/relatives and for business, incentive and convention purposes) held steady in October at 141.1, compared with prior year October 2023 (141.6) levels.

Why This Matters

Travel is down overall, but leisure travel is strong: Despite a significant drop in overall travel in October 2024 compared to 2023, the leisure travel sector has held steady. This is good news for destinations, as leisure travelers, particularly those taking discretionary trips, are most likely to be influenced by marketing efforts.

The post-pandemic travel boom is fading: The surge in travel following the pandemic is slowing down, as seen in the flattening growth of the Leisure Travel Index and TSA checkpoint numbers.

Leisure travel has recovered, but overall travel hasn't: While the Leisure Travel Index has surpassed 2019 levels, overall travel remains well below pre-pandemic numbers. This is partly due to a shortfall in non-discretionary leisure trips (like visiting family, business travel) which are less influenced by destination marketing.

Should destinations focus on returning to 2019 levels? Given these trends, it's worth asking if aiming for a full return to 2019 travel levels is a realistic goal for destinations, especially if relying primarily on leisure travel.

Key takeaways:

• Leisure travel is a bright spot: Despite the overall travel decline, the leisure segment remains strong.
• Growth is slowing: The post-pandemic travel boom is losing momentum.
• Reaching 2019 levels is challenging: Overall travel recovery is lagging, making a return to pre-pandemic numbers difficult.
• Focus on discretionary travel: Destinations should prioritize attracting discretionary leisure travelers who are more likely to be swayed by marketing.