Is U.S. Law Enforcement Ready For A Nairobi Style Attack?
The most recent Nairobi attack brought up the idea again. It was important enough to put on paper. No, this is not about the heroic SAS operator or Issyaat Kassam, civilian hero of the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi and the recent 14 Riverside hotel attack there. It is about the possibility of an incident like the attack in Nairobi happening in the US.
In the U.S., active shooter incidents have increasingly shocked and terrified the American public. From a response standpoint, we have a hard time getting our tactics, techniques, procedures and responses in line for a lone gunman in singular active shooter incidents. While these attacks are horrific in nature, they are simple. Lone gunman selects target(s), plans and executes simple plan to cause significant damage. To date, outside war zones, there have been few incidents with multiple shooters, multiple trained shooters, or complex attacks. Beslan, Mumbai, Paris, Nairobi (x2) come to mind but not many more. In the US, we have had 1 complex attack, (identified by the attacker(s) using more than one method of attack) with multiple shooters (Columbine) and 3 attacks with multiple shooters, (Westboro Middle School, Columbine, and San Bernardino).
Is U.S. law enforcement (LE) ready for multiple attackers? Taking the Nairobi attack templates - a mall for example, whether indoor or outdoor, provides a target rich environment for those intent on doing harm. Multiple attackers, even with basic training in tactics, would present an extremely challenging problem for LE professionals. How do we know this? Because when responding to even a single shooter we see first responders, secondary teams and even leadership overwhelmed by events. This is not unexpected on some level, as life and limb are at risk and the situations develop with every passing second. But then we see jurisdictional issues and a lack of multi/interagency interaction, training, communication, leadership, command and control, and capability.
Whether the attackers control a high rise or an indoor or outdoor mall, the physical environment causes significant challenges that would tax many individual departments let alone two or three that have not worked together. Adding a phased, sustained attack, in the case of the 14 Riverside attack, 19 hours, of understanding the situation, being under attack, rescuing victims and dealing with attackers we can see how the situation could quickly become a challenge for multiple responding law enforcement agencies. Adding state and federal law enforcement to the situation brings in more assets, but again can make command, control and execution more difficult.
Multiple attackers, even with basic training in tactics, would present an
extremely challenging problem for LE professionals.
Granted, active shooter protocols starting with Columbine shifted law enforcement response away from containment for SWAT, to first responders engaging and follow on support filling in gaps. A sustained engagement would have to rapidly shift that thinking back to the days of containment, evacuation, assault and recovery or even better, to execute all those tasks simultaneously.
We see from every video in the aftermath of shooter events that there seem to be plenty of SWAT-type professionals available for response. The difference in availability and capability in terms of responding to threats with the intent of killing as many people as possible, including responders and not giving up until their death is a new concept, especially at scale. It appears more like a military operation than an LE one. While the military may be more suited to deal with this issue, it is law enforcement's.
LE officials will tell us they are ready and prepared.
How do they know? How will we know?
While we support and are thankful for our law enforcement professionals, one has to wonder: Are they ready for a large-scale attack like the events in Nairobi or Mumbai? As prevalent as active shooter scenarios may appear in the news, the reality is most LE departments have not had to deal with them. Adding multiple shooter incident exponentially complicates the problem. Regardless, most LE officials will tell us they are ready and prepared. How do they know? How will we know?
If this is on your mind, you are not alone. The Cipher Brief led off this year with a discussion about active shooter from a private and public perspective. Their article https://www.thecipherbrief.com/private-sector-preps-for-active-shooters-in-2019? addresses active shooter from corporate, security and state law enforcement perspectives. Dealing with active shooter incidents is top of mind for many corporate and law enforcement security professionals.
Having discussions and conversations is a start.
As the article implies, private-public partnerships are and will be the key; from security directors to security officers and from first responders to SWAT on the ground. Training will be integral to the success of any planned responses on both private and public sides as will integrated training and scenarios, including pre-incident, incident and post incident planning and execution. There are a few training and security companies that host shooter response planning and training scenarios for law enforcement that talk through incident response.
Having discussions and conversations is a start. Reaching out to local law enforcement is a great first step. Sometimes, as discussed in The Cipher Brief article, responses to meet can be delayed due to schedule and operational conflicts. However, experience shows local LE is more than willing to assist, especially when organizations are forward leaning in their engagement and planning. Adding leadership, resources and assets, even on a small scale should be next steps.
Keep in mind, this is for individual shooter incidents. Who says we cannot ask the same questions, plan for and train for incidents with multiple attackers? The answers are not the same. We need to have our head and eyes up on evolving threats. If we don't see them, we cannot be prepared for them.
Chris Story
Fire & Life Safety Advisor Emerging Technologies Commercial Development Entrepreneur Connector
5 年Completed agree with your article. Living in Las Vegas and knowing much of the back story of the Mandalay Bay Casino/Hotel shooting it is obvious that the Hotel, our multi jurisdiction police force and fire department divisions were not prepared for the event. Training efforts have prepared us for a future event however as the Entertainment Capitol of the World we are still susceptible to future attacks. What continues to make us a major target is that another successful attack would have a significant economic affect on Las Vegas. Each future major Las Vegas event should be treated with the manpower staffing, planning and assumption that the worst scenario could occur. Lest we forget, the 9-11 terrorist made a trip to Las Vegas shortly before the 9-11 attacks.
Public Safety | Security Management ? I help build partnerships to protect assets, and transform underperforming security programs and have trained 1000s ??
6 年Fantastic article but I think Terrorist attacks are a completely different animal than even mass shooters. While I certainly believe police can mitigate incidents and do a good job significantly reducing the number of deaths, the manner in which terrorist attacks unfold and tactics used in terrorist incidents are simply no match for police. Any sizable terrorist attack significantly hampers communication and requires a coordinated effort between multiple entities and if WMD’s are in play that mitigation would not only mean police force but other efforts as well and in many departments this requires significant time, departments simply lack, training, personnel, and equipment to deal with terrorist incidents...I’m now hated by every SWAT member in America!?
Security | Risk | Protection
6 年Hey Chris, great write up. I feel Some are ready and some are not. Sadly all LE are not the same, and they do not receive the same training across the board for AS response. A multiple shooter situation like Nairobi/Mumbai would be bad news all around. In my opinion, LE would it be as prepared in responding to a +1 shooter situation. I see them responding and individualizing the first threat they come to then working to flush the second out. Of course situation dictates. My gut tells me more as the years go on, America will require more men/women of action. Much like the SAS bloke that helped out in last weeks AF attack. Granted the likelyhood of an American SF guy near by with full kit during an attack is not likely in America, I realize that. What I mean is that mind set. Someone with that mindset. Someone that understands they can not just sit around and wait for the first responder. They ultimately must take on the role of the first responder. Tall order to ask. I know. But in countries like Israel where there is a long History of extremist attacks, you will see ordinary people doing extraordinary things in the pursuit to save life.