US Foreign Policy (Key concepts)

How would you define Foreign Policy?

National Interests: Derived from Perceptions, values and aspirations of the nation, Protect sovereignty, territorial integrity; strategic and economics interests and find suitable place in world community

Five motives of U.S. Foreign Policy (Domestic inputs):

Security: Before and after 9/11

Terrorism; in the broader sense; the use of intentionally indiscriminate the violence as a mean to create a fear and terror in order to achieve a political, religious or ideological aim

Policy Differences with Russia and China [uncertainties in internal affairs of China and Russia]

Middle East Wars

South Asia [India-Pakistan conflict]

v. East Asia: Korea, China and Taiwan

vi. Weapons of Mass Destructions

vii. Newer security threats: Diseases

2. Economy:

Global economy: Foreign Trade account is 30% of GDP (Impact on employment and domestic economic conditions)

Regional and global economic policies influences US economic conditions and visa versa

Meltdown of US economic markets in 2008

Fluctuation in US foreign currency rates/inflation influence regional economies

Asian Economic crisis of 1997 and Economic collapse of Russia in 1998

Recently, devaluation of Chinese Yen

3. Environmental issues:

Due to globalisation issues related to environment have globalised e.g. Global warming and biodiversity. Drug trafficking and diseases.....

4. Increasing racial and ethnic diversities:

Different ethnic /religious/regional groups

More American trace their ancestry and heritage to different countries and regions...and influence foreign policy moves in favour of those areas

5. Advocacy of democracy, freedom and justice out side the national boundary but do not want to play the role of ‘world police man’

 

External Inputs: Context of the International System

Quasi Anarchist International System:

Theory of Realism:

International system is anarchic because of the absence of world government

States are competing each other in pursuance of their national interest

Realism explains IRs in terms of power

Power: The ability to get another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to do what it would have done)1

Actors (try to be so powerful) that they affect others more than others affect them 

States use power against each other in pursuance of self-interests

States strive for more power to strengthen their position against competing powers

It is also called: Realpolitik/Exercise of Power/Real Politics/Realism

Realism vs. Liberalism: Contrary to Realists, Liberals (idealists) believe in International Law, morality, and International Organisations rather than power alone

 

Thomas Hobbes says: “In domestic affairs kings maintain order but no such authority exists in international system...”

 He called it “state of nature” or “state of war”

Now a days we call it “law of jungle” or “might is right”

Thomas Hobbes says: “In domestic affairs kings maintain order but no such authority exists in international system...”

 He called it “state of nature” or “state of war”

Now a days we call it “law of jungle” or “might is right”

League of Nation: After the WWI (1914-1918) was formed with the initiatives of US President Woodrow Wilson but it failed to prevent another World War

Causes of the failure of LoN (1920): Great powers including US did not join LoN

Members showed unwillingness to bear the costs of collective action

In 1930, it failed to resist German and Japanese expansionism that led to the advent of WWII (1939-1945)

United Nations Organisation (24 Oct. 1945):

Security Council, General Assembly, International Law, IMF, International Sea Law, International Tribunal

System Structure: Existing power structure

Multi-polar (before WWII)

Principle: Balance of power between major 7—GB, Italy,

Japan, USA, USSR and Germany—powers (n0 0ne dominates)

Bipolar (After WWII during Cold War times)

Deterrence Principle: Prevention of nuclear war by fear of retaliation

If anyone strikes first, the targeted one will have capability to strike back

Unipolar: Principle of Primacy of sole super power

Whether use it for common good or exploit for self-interest/hegemony (NWO)

Multi-polar (emerging scenario)

 Would the US be able to maintain its supremacy?

China’s role?

Role of non-state actors?

US National Interests (NI)

Foreign policies are made in the name of NI

National Interests: Aspiration, Perceptions, History, Ideology, geostrategic location

NI have become so elastic and ambiguous …problematic and controversial…interpreted in self-interest of party/group interests (Robert Keohance)

Bush criticize Clinton: NI replaced with humanitarian interests or international community

Obama is being criticized by pro-Zionist lobbies on Iranian Nuclear deal

Determinants of NI: 4 Ps

Power, Peace, Prosperity and Principles 

Power: Self-defense, preservation of national territory, deterring aggression and influencing other states

“Power enables an actor to shape its environment so as to reflect its interests.” Samuel Huntington

“Statesmen think and act in terms of interest define as power”, “Competition of power is fundamental in international system” Hans Morgenthau

Hobbes “Conflict and competition as the basic reality of International Politics.

Consequently, Realists suggest

“State’s first pursuits should not be peace but war”

Political and military power remain the major currency of power

American Neo-conservatives prefer manifestation of power through:

MILITARY INTERVENTIONS,

OVERTHROWING HOSTILE GOVERNMENTS TO US INTREST,

PREEMTIVE MILITARY ACTIONS,

PROVIDING MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO CLIENT STATES,

COERCIVE STATECRAFT:

 Economic sanctions, Covert actions

Alliances: Gather power through alliances against mutual threats: SEATO, CENTO and NATO

2nd P—Peace: All four Ps are meant to achieve peace (the peace of US choice)

 Diplomacy is an important tool give peace a chance.

Diplomacy does not fit in the Realistic scheme of things

Diplomacy continues uninterrupted at embassies around the world and foreign ambassadors in Washington, DC

International Institutions (II): War is inevitable but II help to reduce the chance of war

Anarchy can not be eliminated totally, but it can be regulated or managed through the II

Types of II:

Global—LoN and UN

Economic: IMF, WB, WTO

Legal: World Court and International Criminal Court

Policy Areas: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), WHO, UN Environment Programme

Regional: Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe

3rd P—Economic Prosperity:

Seek reliable and low cost imports

Find markets for American export

Search profitable foreign investments

In order to pursue economic agenda there are two mindsets operating in US

Who serve general public interest: For the good of

Who want to serve elites and follow imperialist/neo- colonialist policies for the benefit of capitalist class

Two Party System:

Democrats: Liberals, Centre-left, Social justice, social Progressivism and proponent of welfare state

Republicans: Conservative, believe in Social and fiscal conservatism 

4th P—Principles: Values, ideas and beliefs—Rooted in Democratic idealism

Thomas Jefferson characterised the US “solitary republic of the world, the only monument of human rights...sole depository of the sacred fire of freedom and self-government...”

 

President Woodrow Wilson said that the US entered WWI because it wanted “to make the world safe for democracy... We shall fight for...democracy, for the rights of those who submit to authority to have a voice in their own governments for the rights and liberties of small nations... “During the Cold War period Ronald Reagan promised to “defend democracy and fight communism...”

Democratic peace theory: Promoting democracy we promote peace because democracies do not go to war against each other. 

Debate: on the principles enshrined in 4th P

Image of US in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Latin America

Kuwait was not a democracy

Clandestine support for Sadam during the Iran-Iraq war

US support for dictatorial regimes of Pakistan

Twice, Modi was refused to give visa

Two party systems

Democrats (Centre-left party) : Democracy, liberalism, social justice, social progressivism, mixed economy and welfare state

Republican: Conservative, believe in social and financial conservatism

 

Domestic Context of U. S. Foreign Policy

Does internal politics play any role in foreign policy making?

Saying: “politics stops at the water’s edge”

 Country should remained against foreign treat—shun all political bickering

If it is true then how would we explain anti-Vietnam War demonstrations in US

American failed create consensus after WWI—When Woodrow Wilson suffered setback when Congress refused to rectify Treaty of Versailles

Answer: No.

Lets have a glance at domestic inputs of the US F.P.

 

Role of President and Congress:

Decisions:

Cooperation

Constructive Compromise

Conflict

Executive Branch politics: President’s own branch

Policy process:

Provides adequate and timely intelligence information

Give analytical view of threats and interests stakes

Policy opinion must be identified with pros and cons

Proposed strategies must be spelled out with suggestions ‘how to proceed once policy choice is made’

A feedback “loop” must be established to evaluate how the policies are working in practice

President as F. P. Leader

Set influences on President in F. P. making process

F. P. experiences:

Four Presidents served as Secretary of States [Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Quincy)

Characteristics of President as an individual:

Personality, Academic background

Bush as a war hero

Obama as a black

Wilson had been considered self-righteous –took stand on Versailles Treaty

Nixon is considered as pervasive suspicious (Vietnam War)

President’s world view/belief system

Components of belief system

Perception about International System/threat perception

National interest hierarchy: How Presidents ranks the 4 Ps

Strategy: Optimal strategy to counter challenges, threats and achieve national interests

4. Senior Foreign Policy Advisors:

Big three—National Security Advisor, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defence

Henry Kissinger (Harvard University), Condoleezza Rice (Stanford University) 

Interests Groups

Multinational Corporations

Labour Unions

Consumers Associations

Identity Groups

Nature of US polity

Ethnic, National Origin, Religious Identities

Irish/Polish/African/Greek/Jewish

American-Israel Public affairs Committee

Political Issue Groups: Antiwar Groups, Council of Liveable World (During Cold War), Nuclear Freeze Movement, Environmental Groups, Wold Wildlife Federation, amnesty International, Human Rights Watch , feminist Groups

  

State and Local Governments

They do not under the sway of Interest Groups—but they influence foreign policy

In 1980, they Local Elected Officials pressured Federal Government to end arms race

Foreign Governments

Foreign Governments hire Lobbyists and Public Relations Companies to influence American policy moves

Lobbyists: Former Congress men, former Cabinet Members, former Executive Branch Officials and other “big guns” 

 

How Lobbyists influence 

Strategies and Techniques of Influence

Influencing Congress: They during the processes of legislation

At the stage of writing bill, when bill presented before hearing committee, during voting process, during the process of reconciliation between the House and Senate

Influence groups also influence public opinion by mobilising protests/deonstrations

Impact of News Media

“I have asked the news services to be good enough to assist the administration in keeping this view of the expeditions constantly before both the people of this country and the distressed and sensitive people of Mexico.” Woodrow Wilson. 1961, on the occasion of US military intervention in Mexico

Keeping in view US national interest media played favourable role in WWII—Propagating allied heroism and defaming Nazism

How Media Influences

Agenda setting: Agenda setting

 

Freedom of Press and National Interest

 

In 1961, NY Times uncovered the story of US plans to invade Bay of Pigs (Cuba) but didn't publish due to “National Security Rationale

Five Principles of influencing F.P. through Public Opinion

Parameter setting: Public opinion imposes limits on the range of president’s policy options

Centripetal Pull: Some times public opinion influence by the policies and moves of the president

Impact on Congress: Congress being the public representative body is always prone to public influence

 

The Cold War Context

In the WWII, the US and The Soviet Union were allies

$ 9 billion, economic assistance to the Soviet Union

Motive: “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”

After the common enemy vanquished

Orthodox views about the WWII:

Soviets/Stalin were responsible—there expansionist designs

Expanded their influence in the East Europe

Blocked of the West Berlin

In Asia, China’s support

Supported anti colonial movements

Soviets established spy-ring to steal secrets of a-bomb 

Revivalist View: The US was also responsible because it wanted to be the hegemon/seeking its own empire.

After Bolshevik revolution US along with European forces tried to reverse communist revolutions in the Soviet Union and other parts of the world

Consequently, the Soviets tried to preserve themselves by preserving Poland and other Eastern European countries as a ‘Cordon Sanitaire’

Both, the USA and USSR had no aggressive designs but due to mistrust, each side considered their actions as defensive while other side saw them as offensive.

Role UN as Peace Maker during the Cold War

Failure of the League of Nation led to WWII

 

Purpose of the UN:

“The national interest of the US, as well as the national interests of other nations, would be served best by multilateral cooperation through international institutions.”

UN Charter was signed in San Francisco on June 26, 1945. (51 original signatories)

US signed it; Roosevelt did not repeat the mistake of Woodrow Wilson of 1930

US Congress vote to join UN was 39-2

Institutional Arrangements:

Security Council: Tried to eliminate anarchy

Powers: to use military force, order the severance of diplomatic relations, impose economic sanctions against trouble makers

Article 43 of UN Charter envisioned the standing of UN military force

Article 43

All Members of the United Nations, in order to contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security, undertake to make available to the Security Council, on its call and in accordance with a special agreement or agreements, armed forces, assistance, and facilities, including rights of passage, necessary for the purpose of maintaining international peace and security.

Such agreement or agreements shall govern the numbers and types of forces, their degree of readiness and general location, and the nature of the facilities and assistance to be provided.

The agreement or agreements shall be negotiated as soon as possible on the initiative of the Security Council. They shall be concluded between the Security Council and Members or between the Security Council and groups of Members and shall be subject to ratification by the signatory states in accordance with their respective constitutional processes.

This standing force was to be directed by a Military Staff Committee would directly advise the Security Council and be in operational charge of the military force

The US failed to provide institutional arrangement for a “one world” because it failed to create permanent military force.

 

Why UN failed to raise permanent military force? 

 

Political ambivalence of number of countries including the USA

Nation-state sovereignty VS UN institutional authority

Some Americans consider Article 43 “a step too far toward ‘world government’”

China’s stand on Human Rights

US Senate refused to ratify Genocide Convention of 1948, ratified in 1988

Due to bipolarity, UN became competing ground instead of unifying institution

Soviet boycotted Security Council on the issue of China’s seat in UN

Due to the Soviet absence US succeeded in getting resolution passed, creating UN-sponsored military force to defend South Korea in 1955

Some Americans considered UN hostile to their national interests

Percent of votes in the UN General Assembly, 1946-60

Nuclear Deterrence and containment:

Dream of One World peace frustrated due to national interests in term of power—Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine of power

Containment was another doctrine that hampered the process of global peace

G. F. Kennan, US diplomat in USSR once wrote to his government: “there can never be on Moscow’s side any sincere assumption of interest between the Soviet Union and the powers which are regarded as capitalists.”

Wizards of Armageddon: A group of theorists which influenced American defence policy

(Bernard Brodie, Albert Wohlstetter and Herman Kahn)

In case of failure of deterrence nuclear war cannot be won

Total nuclear war should be avoided at all costs

All the values including ‘personal freedom’ would be consumed by the war

So the focus should be on deterrence not on the winning war

Need for second-strike capabilities, retaliation capability in the case of first strike

America should have credible retaliating capability even at the risk of annihilation of human race.

So, the US needed a “Doomsday machine”

Formative Period, 1947-50

Beginning of the Cold War: US support for the countries felt threatened of Soviet aggression: Turkey and Greece

Truman Doctrine: “I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures…. If we fail to aid Greece and Turkey in this fateful hour, the effect will be far-reaching to the West as well as to the East… ”

 

Marshal Plan: “it is logical that the US should do whatever it is able to do to assist in the return of normal health in the world, without which there can be no political stability and no assured peace.”

Marshal Plan led to the foundation of NATO (1949)

US would defend its European allies if they were attacked

Signatories agreed that an attack against one should be considered attack on all members

US stationed its forces in member countries

In 1949, Soviet threat become more formidable when it developed nuclear weapons.

In 1949, Cold War extended to Asia (emergence of PRC)

These realities caused shift in the US foreign policy:

Globalization of containment

Militarization of containment

Strive to develop H-bomb

Intensification of Cold War:

Warsaw Pact (1956) : counter weight to NATO

Soviet support for Communist Hungary against American sponsored antigovernment movement (Soviet Union sent armies to Hungary)

Japanese Peace Treaty (1952)

US ended military occupation of Japan

US troops stayed in Japan (for the containment of Asia)

 

Vietnam War: Vietnamese fought war of independence against French colonial masters under the leadership of nationalist and communist Ho Chi Minh.

During WWII, Germany occupied France, France lost foothold in Vietnam

 Japan took control, surrendered in 1945.

Ho took control of Vietnam and declared independence, Democratic Republic of Vietnam

France refused to recognise new government

France with the help of USA invaded parts of Vietnam

Vietnam divided into South and North

An other war—China, Soviet Union supported Ho and, US and France supported Ngo Dinh Diem    

Middle East: CENTO (1955-1979)

Baghdad Pact (1955)—METO, CENTO (1958)

Member countries: UK, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. US defacto member

Latin America:

Cuban Communist Revolution (1958)

Invasion of Bay of Pigs (1961) Cuban exiles with the help of US forces penetrated to overthrow Castro

Doctrine of Massive Retaliation: Eisenhower announced use of nuclear weapons to counter any drastic soviet move.

Sputnik and International Ballistic Missiles: 1957

Cuban Missile Crises: 1962

 Brought two super powers to the brink of nuclear war

Soviets decided to base nuclear missiles in Cuba

US installed nuclear warheads in Turkey

ABC approach:

Cold War was not just conflict between two sets of states but two ideologies

Ideological polarity:

Communism vs. Capitalism

Central Democracy vs. Liberal Democracy

One party system vs. Two or multi party system

Italy: There was a very strong communist party with electoral strength

CIA covertly manipulated election results against leftists

CIA covert actions:

Eisenhower: “Another important requirement is an aggressive covert psychological, political and parliamentary organization more effective, more unique, and if necessary , more ruthless than that employed by the enemy. No one should be permitted to stand in the way of the prompt, efficient and secure accomplishment of this mission…there are no rules in such a game. Hither to acceptable norms of human conduct do not apply.” 

 

Foreign Policy Politics and the Cold War Consensus

Three components of the Cold War Consensus:

Presidential Domination:

Congress was seen as too parochial to pay sufficient attention to world affairs, too amateur to understand them, and too slow in its procedure to necessary dispatch.

Contrary to that, president has to just press a button to launch nuclear attack

Korean War: Truman never asked the Congress for a declaration of war but said UN resolution was enough to commit US troops

Covert Actions: President James Monroe took a covert action against Spain (1819) without informing the Congress

International Commitments:

From 1789-1945: 843 Treaties and 1492 Ex. Agreements

From 1945-1976: 437 Treaties and 6983 Ex. Agreements

2. Executive-branch, Foreign and Defence Policy Bureaucracy:

National Security Council was established in 1947 to provide a formal mechanism for bringing together the president’s principal foreign policy advisors

National security advisor became more powerful and prominent than Secretary of State in making US foreign policy

Department of Defence (created in 1949) consisting of Army, Navy and Air force under Joint Chief of Staff—all responsible to Secretary of Defence, a civilian

Flawed decisions of Executive-Branch: Bay of Pigs adventure

In Cuban Missile crisis: Kennedy went outside normal bureaucratic channels and established a special crisis decision—making team, called ExCom, with members drawn from his own cabinet and former high ranking foreign policy officials 

3.        Anticommunist Public Opinion:

Role of Media:

Carried national agenda during the WWII and Cold War times.

Pressured president to take tough stand on ideological and defence issues

The term Cold War coined by newspaper columnist—Walter Lippmann

On the issue of Bay of Pigs—NY Time knew about the plan but not published

Interest Groups:

More assertive and more anticommunist than officials

Kennedy came under severe criticism when he declared that he is considering “mini-détente” with the Soviet Union

Public Opinion consensus:

65 percent to 8 percent

In the late 1940s and early 1950s, the House of Un-American Activities Committee launched a series of investigation claiming that communists had infiltrated American government and society.

The Cold War Context: Lessons and Legacies

Vietnam War--Mea culpa: Robert MacNamara, Secretary of Defence in his memoirs:

We fought the war on the basis of ideology and underestimated the power of nationalism

Profound ignorance of the history, culture and politics of the of the people

We failed to recognise the limitation of high-tech military equipment in confronting unconventional, highly motivated people’s movement.

We failed to draw Congress and the American people into a full and frank discussion and debate of the pros and cons of a large-scale US military involvement in Southeast Asia

The failure of executive branch to deal effectively with the extraordinarily complex range of political and military issues...

There are two point of views about the Vietnam War:

It war a war that should not have been fought, could not have been won, and could and should have been halted at several key junctures.

It was right to have fought it, and that it could have been won through tougher policies and more commitment by US policy makers.

Conclusion:

It was a profound setback for the US foreign policy strategy during the Cold War.

It was a failure on all counts:

Peace was not served, power was eroded, principles were violated and prosperity was damaged.

Peace was not served:

US causalities: 200,000 including 60,000 deaths.

 Vietnam casualties: more than 3 million

Communism spread from Vietnam to Laos and Cambodia

Can peace be achieved through the instrument of war?

Power was eroded: President Johnson, at the eve of sending American forces said: “Around the globe, from Berlin to Thailand,” people believe that “they can count on us if they are attacked. To leave Vietnam to its fate would shake the confidence of all these people in the value of an American commitment and in the value of America’s word.”  

Principles were violated:

Nixon: “If we withdraw from Vietnam...we would lose confidence in ourselves...North Vietnam cannot defeat or humiliate the United States. Only American can do that.”

It was a mockery of a nation that achieved freedom through freedom fight on the principle of self-determination.

 Damage of prosperity:

Ranging appetite of an economy in which defence industries were so central was a key factor leading to Vietnam otherwise the effect of war was queit damaging to prosperity.