US energy and climate policies clash, stoking a doubling of migration in the Americas by 2050

Former US President Donald Trump, the leading candidate for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2024, has promised “we are going to drill, baby, drill” once elected.

“We have more liquid gold under our feet; energy, oil and gas than any other country in the world,” the former president said. “We have a lot of potential income.”[1]

At the same time, Trump has pledged, if reelected, to be a dictator only on Day One.? In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, Trump said,

“We're gonna close the border, Day One. The border gets closed. … And Day One and a Half, we drill. You know we drill, baby, drill. Drill. Drill. Drill.”

“He says,” Trump continued, "You're not gonna be a dictator, are you?" I said no, no, no … other than Day One. We're closing the border and we're drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I'm not a dictator, OK?”[2]

American Leadership Review (ALR) seeks to understand how energy production, climate change, migration and the US border crisis are interconnected.

ALR asks ‘’Can America (and the globe) continue to expand the use of fossil fuels while containing the impacts of global warming and increasing levels of climate-fueled migration?’

Current trends suggest the answer is ‘No’. Greater production and consumption of energy, both in the US and globally, will stoke higher global temperatures and increase international levels of migration.

Globally, crude oil production in 2022 rose 5.4% over 2021, driven by Saudi Arabia (+16%) and the United States (+6.5%). Overall, energy production in the US rose by 5.8% in 2022.[3]

Along with rising production comes increased consumption of fossil fuel energy. 178,899 terawatt hours of energy were consumed globally in 2022, compared to 168,469 terawatt hours in 2020, the final year of the Trump presidency.[4]

US primary energy consumption rose to 100.41 quadrillion?British thermal units (Btu, ‘quads’) in 2022, and production rose to 102.92 quads.[5]

After a decade of expanding energy production, US production exceeded consumption in 2019. The US has remained a net supplier of global energy since then. Much of the credit for the expansion goes to the Obama administration, which promoted energy independence to recapitalize the US economy following the global financial crisis of 2009-10, a policy continued under President Trump.

The US is today the world’s leading petrostate.

There are consequences for increasing energy production and consumption. Last year was, globally,?the hottest ever recorded. The US suffered?a record number of disasters?in 2023 costing at least $1 billion in damages, with the climate crisis spurring fiercer wildfires, storms and extreme heat.

Current policies presently in place around the world are projected to result in about 2.7°C warming above pre-industrial levels.[6]?

Climate-related hazards like floods, storms, and wildfires are already a major driver of global human mobility. In many parts of the world, climate change is increasing these impacts.

According to the?Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, as of July 1, 2020, the global number of international migrants was estimated to be 281 million. International migrants comprise some 3.5 per cent of the global population, compared to 2.8 per cent in 2000 and 2.3 per cent in 1980.[7] Twenty-one per cent of international migrants reside in Northern America.?

Many migrants are driven to migrate by climate hazards. Just how many is dramatically illustrated by new tools employed by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) of the United Nations.

The?Climate Mobility Impacts?dashboard by IOM's Global Data Institute visualizes where hazard exposure, high population density, and economic vulnerability are projected to coincide in future.

Th dashboard is based on a large ensemble of future global projections of six mobility-related climate hazards: heat waves, droughts, wildfires, river floods, tropical cyclones, and crop failures. These projections are available from a number of climate impact models, which each simulate certain weather-related physical processes, for different points in the future and for alternative climate scenarios (RCPs) that depend on factors including future greenhouse gas emissions.[8] These data help identify climate-sensitive hotspots and develop effective anticipatory action to support at-risk communities worldwide.

ALR queried the Climate Mobility Impacts dashboard for the Americas, to see how under different climate scenarios migration might be triggered in the near- or medium-term.? We looked at the scenarios’ forecasts which represents moderate emissions control, resulting in a global temperature increase of 3–4°C (RCP 6.0 ‘High warming’) by 2100, under two ) socio-economic scenarios, the ‘Middle of the Road’ (SSP-2) and ‘Regional rivalry’ (SSP-3) models, for 2030 and 2050.

For the Americas, for the year 2030, under Climate Scenario RCP 6.0 (High warming) and SSP-2 (‘Middle of the Road’), the number of Persons exposed is 39.97 million. For RCP 6.0 (High warming) and SSP-3 (‘Regional rivalry’), the number of Persons exposed is 41.24 million. For the Year 2050, the corresponding figures are 82.50 and 84.89 million.[9]

Under the most likely near- and medium-term scenarios, the climate crisis is projected to more than double migration pressures within the Americas.

‘Drill, baby, drill’ leads to ‘migrate, baby, migrate.’

Meanwhile, in Washington, Democratic and Republican Senators in the US Congress continued this week to negotiate on a package of reforms which would slow migration to the US.

Measures under consideration would make it easier for US officials to deport migrants who have remained in the country illegally, expand detention capacity and add Border Patrol staff and Judges needed to process and prosecute illegal migrants. It will further bar additional migrants from entering the country if the system becomes overwhelmed, installing a cap of 5,000 migrants per day from entering the country.

Many Senate Republicans oppose the package, which seeks to tie together border programs and military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Trump?has put pressure on congressional Republicans to reject the deal.? Prospects for adoption look dim in an election year.[10]

The last major attempt to address US border security or immigration policy died in the House of Representatives in 2013, after House Republicans refused to permit a vote on the Senate’s proposed reform package.

Politics often trumps policy in America.

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[1] The Guardian (Jan. 18, 2024). Climate crisis ignored by Republicans as Trump vows to ‘drill, baby, drill’. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/18/trump-republican-rivals-climate-crisis

[2] Jordan Lilies (Jan. 24, 2024). Trump's 'Day One' Remark to 'Dictator' Question Referenced the Southern Border and Oil Drilling. Snopes. https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/01/24/trump-dictator-day-one/

[3] Enerdata (2024) Total Energy Production. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-energy-production.html

[4] Hannah Ritchie, Pablo Rosado and Max Roser (2020) - “Energy Production and Consumption” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

[5] Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,?Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.3 and 10.1,?April 2023, preliminary data. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

[6] Climate Action Tracker (2023). 2100 Warming Projections: Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies. December 2023. Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute. at:?https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/.

[7] For statistical purposes, the?United Nations?defines an international migrant as any person who has changed his or her country of residence. This includes all migrants, regardless of their legal status, or the nature, or motive of their movement.

[8] Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were devised by researchers to study different climate change scenarios.?See IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC). Definition of Terms Used within DDC Pages. https://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/glossary/glossary_r.html

[9] IOM Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (2024) Migration Data Portal. ?Sources:?Population:?Jones & O’Neill (2016), Hazard:?Lange et al. (2020), Vulnerability:?Wang & Sun (2022), Displacement:?IDMC (2023). https://www.migrationdataportal.org/climate-mobility-impacts

[10] Riley Beggin and Ken Tran (Jan. 25, 2024). 'Trainwreck': Conservative GOP senators break on border, Ukraine deal as Donald Trump pressures Republicans.USA Today. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/24/conservative-gop-senators-border-ukraine-donald-trump/72341172007/