The US Elections Through a Sociological Lens: Trump and the Dynamics of Current Politics

We live in an era of political polarization and urban tensions that reflect complex transformations in global power dynamics and in the daily lives of urban populations. Electoral movements, immigration policies, housing crises, and struggles for social justice reveal the paradox between the ideal of inclusion and the structural mechanisms that promote exclusion and inequality. In this essay, we explore how these elements interact in different contexts and outline a panorama of challenges and contradictions in contemporary societies.

The Fragility of Incumbent Governments and the Declining Political Trust

The last decades have been marked by a growing distrust of governments, reflected in a series of defeats of incumbent leaders around the world, as is the case in India, where even the popular Modi lost support in the recent elections. This phenomenon can be understood as the result of a process of alienation between the electorate and the political class, where central issues such as economic inequality, access to housing and urban violence are marginalized in favor of identity and cultural agendas. As popular demands fail to find an echo in political institutions, an environment of fragmentation and uncertainty is strengthened.

Immigration and Economic Impacts: Competitiveness and Job Insecurity

In the United States, immigration continues to be a determining factor for economic dynamics. With 14.3% of the population composed of foreigners, the country experiences increasing competitiveness, driven by the migrant workforce. However, the presence of illegal immigrants - around 12 million - intensifies the structural precariousness of work, especially in low-skilled sectors. For the native working classes, predominantly white and black without a degree, immigration is seen as a threat to wages and working conditions, generating social and political tensions that impact elections and public policies.

The contrast with Brazil, which has fewer than 2 million immigrants, reveals the different absorption capacities and economic dynamics that shape perceptions about immigration. In countries with weak social support networks and informal labor markets, a sudden increase in the number of immigrants can exacerbate marginalization and economic exclusion.

The Housing Crisis and the Progressive Paradox in American Cities

In the United States, the cost of living in major metropolises has reached unprecedented levels. Cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago and New York, known for their progressive policies, face a fundamental contradiction: while they advocate inclusion and diversity, they promote restrictive zoning that makes the construction of affordable housing impossible. This resistance to urban densification, driven by local elites, reinforces spatial segregation and restricts access for working classes and minorities to areas well served by infrastructure.

Silicon Valley, in particular, is emblematic of this hypocrisy. In the San Francisco area and neighboring cities, housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable, creating an environment of economic exclusion in one of the main centers of technological innovation. However, affordable housing options in conservative states such as Texas and Florida raise questions about the quality of life and the environmental impact of cheap construction, which often neglects sustainability issues.

Social Justice, Cancel Culture, and Ideological Fragmentation

The rise of social media has intensified the discourse of “social justice” and led to a phenomenon of ideological surveillance in workplaces, universities, and on social media itself. Movements that promote the removal of historical statues, such as those of Christopher Columbus and Winston Churchill, highlight an effort to rewrite public memory in accordance with contemporary values. However, for many Americans, this stance is seen as extreme moralism that ignores historical complexities and promotes cultural polarization.

“Cancel culture” has emerged as a mechanism of social control that promotes the ostracism of individuals considered problematic, for attitudes or positions that differ from progressive values. This phenomenon, however, fuels resentment in more conservative sectors, such as factory workers in the interior of the United States, who see cultural and academic elites as disconnected from the reality of their daily lives.

The Fragmentation of the Progressive Agenda and the Abandonment of Popular Demands

The American left, traditionally associated with the defense of the working classes and social justice, appears to have abandoned the agenda of collective economic advancement in favor of an identity politics that prioritizes small, specific groups. This shift in focus creates a sense of alienation among low-income workers, who begin to see Democratic leaders as elitist figures disconnected from reality. This perception of elitism is shared by Brazilian voters who also see the left as an intellectualized and distant class.

Public policy discussions, such as the proposed budget cuts for the police and the decriminalization of petty theft, are perceived by many Americans as solutions insensitive to the demands of security and stability. This set of policies alienates significant sectors of society and intensifies resentment toward urban elites.

The Threat of the Eternal Return to Radicalization and the Conservative Paradox

Recent history shows that periods of political radicalization tend to generate conservative reactions, as occurred in the 1960s, when countercultural movements and anti-war protests were followed by the election of Richard Nixon, a paranoid but moderate Republican compared to Trump. Similarly, the period of radical mobilization in France in 1968 led to a cycle of conservative governments. Today, political radicalism, whether in the form of identity activism or conservative populism, deepens social fragmentation and makes consensus-building more difficult.

In the United States, the rise of Donald Trump, a populist leader with a history of fraud and divisive rhetoric, represents a backlash against progressive policies and identity activism. Paradoxically, by electing a radical conservative leader, American society intensifies the cycle of polarization, which results in greater alienation between different segments of the population.

The Complexity of the Latino Vote and the Role of Identity in the American Electorate

The Latino electorate, often treated as a homogeneous bloc, is proving to be a complex and multifaceted political category. In the 2024 election, a significant portion of Latino men voted for Donald Trump, while Latino women showed less support for the Republican candidate. This voting behavior reflects the internal diversity of Latinos in the United States and challenges the notion that ethnic groups automatically share the same political preferences.

Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric, which once described immigrants as a “threat to the national bloodline,” faces a new test as he relies on Latino support. This tension between exclusionary rhetoric and the need to win over Latino voters could moderate the positions of the Republican Party, which faces pressure to broaden its support base while preserving the ideological cohesion of its most radical followers.

Geopolitics and Isolationism as an International Strategy of the United States

In the geopolitical scenario, the “America First” policy implies a reduction in the involvement of the United States in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, where power vacuums can be filled by rival powers such as China and Russia. However, this isolationist stance puts at risk historic alliances with Europe and harms international cooperation on climate and trade issues.

For emerging countries, the isolationist policy represents an economic risk, since the reduction in American investments and the weakening of international cooperation can negatively affect the financial stability and development capacity of nations that depend on foreign aid. In addition, the increase in trade tariffs and protectionist policies hinder regional economic integration, as in the cases of Mexico and Canada, which face increasing challenges in their trade relations with the United States.

Conclusion

The contemporary global scenario reveals a set of tensions that transcend national borders and manifest themselves in the daily lives of urban populations, in electoral choices and in the configuration of international relations. Political polarization, the housing crisis, cultural disputes, and American isolationism form a framework of interconnected challenges that reflect the contradictions intrinsic to the process of globalization. To address these challenges, it is essential to critically reflect on the social and political structures that shape contemporary urban experience and the limits of the ideologies that define current public debate.