US Elections Special
This week's chart pack covers the following topics:
High-stakes election: Swing states hold the key
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows:
This chart visualizes the betting odds for US presidential nominees across all 50 states on Polymarket, a decentralized information market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of future events. States are color-coded based on the likelihood of each party winning: dark blue indicates a “safe” Democrat lead, dark red indicates a “safe” Republican lead and shades in between represent varying degrees of lean towards either party.?
Behind the data:
This election cycle has been marked by extreme unpredictability, driven by extraordinary events such as the attempted assassination of Republican candidate Donald Trump and the last-minute decision by the Democratic Party to replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris. These developments have disrupted traditional election forecasting models, leaving both parties scrambling to adjust their strategies.
The chart underscores the importance of key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—in determining the outcome of the election. These battleground states are likely to see intense campaigning from both parties as they are crucial for either candidate to reach the required 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Toss-up states hold key to tight election
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows:
This chart, based on betting odds from Polymarket, shows the projected number of electoral college votes, from a total of 538, that each party is expected to win in the upcoming election. A party must secure a majority of 270 votes to win the presidency. States are categorized by their likelihood of voting for either the Democratic (blue) or Republican (red) party. A “safe” state is where one party has at least a 90% probability advantage over the other. For example, Arkansas is considered a safe Republican state with a 98% chance of voting Republican versus a 2% chance of voting Democrat, resulting in a 96% spread. “Likely” states have a spread between 25% and 90%, “leaning” states have a spread between 10% and 25% and “toss-up” states have a spread of 10% or less.
Behind the data:
The election is shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent history. With 36 electoral college votes currently classified as “toss-up”, these contested states could likely determine the outcome. With such a close race, there is mounting pressure on American institutions to ensure a fair and secure process, especially amid growing concerns about potential international interference and voter fraud. This environment also underscores the importance of each vote in these pivotal states, where even a small shift in voter turnout or preference could tip the scales.
Stocks surge early under Democrats, gain more over full term with Republicans
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows:
This table examines the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index during each US president’s first year in office and across their full four-year term, starting with Rutherford B. Hayes (1877). The first column lists the presidents and their political affiliations while the second and third columns show the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of both indexes during their first year and full term. The table also includes the mean and median CAGRs for each party, offering a comparative view of market performance under different administrations.?
Behind the data:
The data reveals a tendency for the stock market to perform better during the first year of a Democratic presidency, with a median return of 6.5% for the Dow Jones and 3.5% for the S&P 500. In contrast, Republican presidencies have a median first-year return of 0% for the Dow and 1.3% for the S&P 500. However, this trend reverses over a full four-year term. Republican presidencies show a higher median return of 7.5% for the Dow Jones and 6% for the S&P 500, whereas Democratic presidencies see a median return of 6.1% and 1.9% respectively. This suggests that while the market may initially favor a Democratic leadership, it generally delivers stronger returns under Republican administrations over their full terms.
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