US elections to shape energy and climate future as 'King Coal' fades

The political landscape surrounding energy and climate policies is undergoing significant change, with the upcoming US elections poised to shape energy and climate future. "King Coal," once dominant in American energy politics , has seen its role diminish as climate change becomes a mainstream concern and consumers increasingly embrace coal's alternatives. Coal accounted for 52% of total electricity generation in the US in 1990, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2024, experts see a clear path to little to no coal on the grid within the next few decades. Coal power provided 15% of US electricity in 2023, and that is projected to fall to 6.4% by 2035, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Power Forecast data released in early October.

Congressional seats, state races and ballot measures will determine the role of fossil fuels and the speed and scale of the renewable energy transition. Bipartisan support exists for issues such as lowering energy costs and clean energy, but "candidates diverge on policy implementation, enforcement and mechanisms to advance clean energy efforts," said Monica Hlinka, research analyst with Regulatory Research Associates, a group within S&P Global Commodity Insights. The election outcome will influence national climate goals and how individual states approach energy production, infrastructure investments and regulatory oversight.

Despite election uncertainties, the electric vehicle and battery storage sectors remain optimistic. "The trend toward EVs is going to continue regardless of the election," said Stephanie Brinley, an associate director at S&P Global Mobility. Analysts believe that a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris, coupled with Democratic control of Congress, is the scenario most likely to accelerate the growth of EVs and other zero- and low-carbon technologies. That assessment largely rests on the assumption that Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits would be safe. But even in a Republican sweep scenario, many view the federal government's support for clean energy technologies as relatively secure, given that the vast majority of IRA-linked capital commitments and jobs are in Republican-leaning or swing states.

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Deep Dives

In-depth features looking at the impact of major news developments in key industries.

Financials

Bank M&A hits recent presidential term low point in Biden administration

Since 2021, the median days to complete bank deals increased to 151, 9.4% higher than in former President Donald Trump's administration, which had the second-highest median days to close among all presidential administrations since 2001.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

Asia-Pacific banks' debt issuance hits lowest monthly level for 2024

Banks in Asia-Pacific issued $15.03 billion in debt securities in September, compared to $13.03 billion a year ago, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

OTP Bank's profits from Russia set to grow as European peers retreat

Analysts expect Hungary-based OTP Bank to increase third-quarter and full-year profit in Russia, in contrast to Raiffeisen Bank International and UniCredit. "If we could, we would leave Russia," an OTP spokesperson said.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

Most large US banks record deposit gains, improved NIMs in Q3 2024

Six of nine US public banks with assets between $100 billion and $1 trillion that recently reported third-quarter financial results recorded quarter-over-quarter increases in deposits.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Insurance

Financials Research: US excess & surplus premium growth outpaces admitted market during H1 2024

US property and casualty insurers collectively reported that their excess and surplus direct premiums written grew by 12.4% during the first six months of 2024, compared to a growth rate of 10.5% for premiums in the admitted market.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Real Estate

Fundraising for real estate debt faces third year of decline

Cautious banks and an improving outlook for the commercial real estate market are opening an opportunity for the funds to deploy $76.4 billion in dry powder.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Private Equity

Private equity flows to UK renewables surpass investment in US

Global private equity and venture capital investment in the UK renewables sector from January to September amounted to $7.96 billion, far exceeding the $1.08 billion that US renewable energy companies received during the same period.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Credit and Markets

Economy buzzes in defiance of high rates as Fed may slow cutting plans

Market watchers expect rates to go down, though the Fed may slow the pace of cuts and keep rates higher for longer.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Energy and Utilities

Calif. law judges balk at ratepayer funding for SoCalGas hydrogen initiatives

A proposed rate case decision largely rejected Southern California Gas' attempts to recover the cost of hydrogen pilot projects and other low-carbon fuel and carbon capture initiatives.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

Solar, energy storage dominate US capacity additions in September

Solar accounted for about 68% of the nearly 2.2 GW of generating capacity added in September, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Energy storage made up 27%.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Technology, Media and Telecommunications

451 Research: A primer on electric vehicle charging infrastructure and vendors

Robust infrastructure for EV charging is crucial to ensure safety, efficiency and enhanced customer experience. The evolution of physical and digital charging systems will continue to create opportunities for both established and emerging companies.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

Cloud, information security drive tech spending outlook as AI hype settles

Cloud infrastructure and services and information security saw strong increases in organizations' spending intent in the third quarter, while artificial intelligence technologies declined slightly, according to 451 Research's Tech Demand Indicator.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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Metals and Mining

Gold explorers book share price gains in Q3 2024

The share prices of 19 gold companies increased in the third quarter after announcing exploration results as the price of the precious metal surged.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

Metals & Mining Research: A timeline of US presidential terms and gold prices

S&P Global Commodity Insights discusses a possible path for gold prices under the upcoming 47th president of the US by looking at the various economic and geopolitical circumstances of previous US presidential terms.

—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence .

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The Week in M&A

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Deal Profile: Illinois-based Griggsville Bancshares to buy in-state peer Scott Morgan Bancorp

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In-state deals make up smallest share of bank M&A in any year since 2014

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'Everything is for sale for a price': How CUs nudged 2 banks to market

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Big investment bank executives bullish on M&A after Q3 2024 results

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North American insurance underwriter M&A activity remains strong in Q3 2024

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The Big Number

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Trending

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