The US Elections 2024 - Part 1

In recent discussions, I've been asked to write of my opinion on the upcoming U.S. election, especially by my American friends. Instead of focusing on specific party politics, I aim to explore this from a historical perspective, drawing from well-established patterns and some observations based on my limited experiences with politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Historically, leaders who consolidate power often rely on the support of influential business elites. This dynamic isn't new. For example, during World War II, German industrialists such as Quandt played a pivotal role in bolstering Hitler's regime. In more recent history, oligarchs like Khodorkovsky were crucial to Vladimir Putin’s early governance in Russia. The pattern is clear: economic power can be used to fortify political influence, and vice versa.

Elon Musk, one of the world’s most prominent business figures, seems to occupy a similar space today. His ties to political figures, especially former President Trump, invite questions about his motivations. Some might argue that Musk’s support could be strategic—perhaps to secure lucrative government contracts, resolve ongoing legal challenges against his companies, or position himself favorably in future regulatory landscapes. These are not unprecedented actions for a business leader of his stature, especially in industries heavily dependent on government regulations like space exploration, electric vehicles, and telecommunications.

On the political side, Trump has shown a willingness to favor certain companies or industries during and after his presidency, from Deloitte to John Deere, Apple, Harley-Davidson, Amazon, General Motors, etc. This relationship, however, raises questions about the intersection of business and politics, especially when such favoritism may run counter to the traditional Republican stance on free markets and minimal government interference. It is important to critically examine whether such interactions are based on shared ideology or mutual convenience.

Now, from a historical point of view, what does this dynamic suggest for figures like Musk?

History offers numerous cautionary tales. Business elites who aligned with powerful political figures often found themselves in precarious situations when their allies fell out of favor or power. In many cases, the very institutions they helped dismantle or undermine were the ones they eventually needed for protection, only to find they no longer existed. Take the Russian oligarchs who initially supported Putin—some were later imprisoned, exiled, or had their assets seized when their relationship with the regime soured.

For Musk, or any influential business figure in a similar position, the lesson is clear: while economic power can buy access and short-term gains, it does not guarantee long-term immunity. Politics is fluid, and today’s advantageous relationship can quickly become tomorrow’s liability. Aligning too closely with any political figure carries the risk of being entangled in their rise and fall, and history suggests that when political tides change, business elites are often left vulnerable.

In my opinion, business leaders like Musk would be wise to study these historical examples closely. There’s no denying the power and influence they can wield, but history repeatedly shows that this influence can be fleeting if overly tied to specific political figures or regimes. Long-term success in business often comes from neutrality, adaptability, and a focus on the fundamentals rather than overreliance on political favors.

In conclusion, while Musk’s political alliances may seem advantageous today, the historical record suggests caution. Politics is unpredictable, and history reminds us that economic influence alone cannot safeguard against the shifting winds of power. Business leaders should proceed with careful consideration, recognizing the potential consequences of aligning too closely with any one political figure.

Dr Guenther Dobrauz-Saldapenna Sanjay Banerjee Anirudh Mohan Christian Kingombe Christin ter Braak-Forstinger, Dr., LL.M. Kevin Harrington Stefan Calefice Stefan Mathey Stephen Brenninkmeijer Don Brenninkmeijer Jan Peter Balkenende Ameenah Gurib-Fakim Karin Fuchs-H?seli Ashok Khosla Dr. Ash Pachauri Ivan Ransom Dr. Marta Ra Henrik Nordborg Anna Stünzi Aniruddhe Mukerjee Siddhartha Banerjee Aditi Banerjee Gurminder Singh Khalsa Audrey Selian Gurvinder Singh Ahluwalia Marina Akopian Hrachya Aghajanyan Artur Aslanyan