US Election Special

Donald Trump this week delivered one of the greatest comebacks in American politics.

Trump says he will govern by a simple motto: “Promises made, promises kept.” This means his economic agenda must be taken seriously.

The inflationary policies he announced throughout his campaign included 60 per cent tariffs on China and 10 to 20 per cent duties on other trade partners, bigger budget deficits from tax cuts and more defence spending. That could force the RBA to jack up rates here.

He also said he would deport millions of migrant workers and indicated he could potentially interfere in the independence of the US Federal Reserve. (Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to resign Friday, saying his job was protected by law.)

There are two schools of thought on how Donald Trump will govern in his second term, and the path he takes will be crucial for the global economy and financial markets, including in Australia.

The benign view is that Trump will operate a pro-business administration like last time, ushering in cuts to corporate and personal income taxes and slashing red tape in sectors such as energy and finance. The checks and balances in America’s political system – Congress, the Supreme Court and personnel in Trump’s administration – will keep him on the rails.

The more pessimistic view is that Trump will keep his word and impose an economically populist agenda that fuels inflation, increases debt and keeps interest rates higher for longer. Global bond yields and the US dollar have spiked higher in the aftermath of Trump’s victory.

These diverging schools of thought are causing plenty of head-scratching at the Reserve Bank and among investors, who are not sure which way Trump will go.

Get economics editor John Kehoe 's full analysis here.

US Votes 2024: What happened and why

It’s the economy stupid. Trump taps voter anger in red wave Donald Trump won over voters with his platform of economic management and immigration control, while Kamala Harris was shown to be out of touch with mainstream issues, writes Matthew Cranston .

The inflation and immigration lessons of Trump Donald Trump’s question to voters - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” - has cut across gender and racial divisions, writes Michael Stutchbury.

Kamala Harris turns the page on herself Her gracious concession speech demonstrated the practical problems with her campaign and where the Democrats failed, writes Jennifer Hewett .

Why Trump’s win unnerved women everywhere The battle over abortion didn’t play out as the Democrats hoped, while Donald Trump succeeded in tapping into a much more pronounced gender divide, writes Emma Connors .

Trump who? Why the Fed cut rates, ignored politics and boosted bulls The Federal Reserve has juiced a robust US economy and surging sharemarket with another reduction, despite the president-elect’s inflationary policy platform, writes James Thomson .

Cost of living trumped gender ‘tokenism’ for women voters While Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won the female vote by 10 points in Tuesday’s election, this fell far short of the pink wave her party hoped for, writes Hannah Wootton .

Market winners and losers from Trump’s landslide Australian superannuation funds, small caps and renewable energy will celebrate and despair as the Republican returns to the Oval Office.

Australian impact

How Albanese can deal with Trump The prime minister won’t need to ingratiate himself with the US president as other leaders have done – and he has some advantages, writes James Curran .

‘We need you’: PM presses Trump on AUKUS Anthony Albanese has pledged to set aside previous differences and forge a close relationship with Donald Trump, writes Phil Coorey.

Kevin Rudd deletes anti-Trump social media posts Past criticism of the incoming president continues to dog Australia’s envoy to Washington, writes Andrew Tillett .

The lessons in Trump’s victory for Albanese Despite many indicators pointing to a period of economic strength, America’s working class did not feel well served by the Democrats and voted for change, writes Ronald Mizen .

Meet the Australians making money from US real estate As the dust of the American presidential election settles, a weaker currency and falling prices make luxury property attractive for wealthy foreigners, writes Michael Bleby .

Trump trade war could force the RBA to jack up rates KPMG modelling shows that inflation could take off if China retaliates against Donald Trump’s tariffs, while Australia’s mining sector could suffer a $12b export hit.

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