The US Election: Politics and Possibilities

As the US election takes an interesting turn with President Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, and the search for replacement preoccupies minds, here's a thought on how possibilities and politics go hand in hand - and how the Overton window is shifting.

Where This Began?

Much of this conversation began about three weeks ago, on the 27th of June, after the televised debate between Job Biden and Donald Trump.

Until the debate, President Biden had significant support as the Democratic candidate, and there was no conversation about alternatives. But it all changed after he faltered on a few occasions.

Since then, what was unthinkable before the debate, began to seem sensible, even popular - and pressure began mounting on President Biden to consider withdrawing.

Later then, on Sunday, the 21st of July, just one day before my writing this, the President withdrew from the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

What Are the Possibilities?

As several global leaders continue to praise Biden's decision to do the right thing, the question looms - who will have the Democratic ticket against Trump now?

With only a few months to spare, time is of essence, and top names in the frame, besides Harris, include, J.B Pritzker (the 59-year-old governor of Illinois), Gretchen Whitmer (the 52-year-old Michigan governor) and Josh Shapiro (the 51-year-old governor of Pennsylvania).

Although Harris has reasonable support from others, in addition to that of Joe Biden, such as that of the Clintons, the road ahead isn't clear and much may need to wait until the Democratic National Convention to be held in Chicago from the 19th to the 22nd of August.

How the Overton Window is Shifting?

Named after the American policy analyst Joseph Overton, the Overton Window, also known as the range of discourse, is the range of policies (scenarios) politically acceptable to a population.

According to the theory, the viability of an idea depends on whether it sits within this range, and politicians usually pick a point from within this range, rather than cherry pick something that may appear completely absurd or unreasonable. He stated that this window frames the range of choices that can be proposed without a politician seeming too extreme.

As seen in the picture below, the six degrees on the spectrum can be defined as follows:

• Unthinkable
• Radical
• Acceptable
• Sensible
• Popular
• Policy

'The most common misconception is that lawmakers themselves are in the business of shifting the Overton window. That is absolutely false. Lawmakers are actually in the business of detecting where the window is, and then moving to be in accordance with it.' - Joseph Lehman

While politicians usually locate the window, and work well within it, think tanks and social movements are the ones that actually broaden the window, by making the unthinkable seem plausible. For example, abolishing slavery, accepting IVF, supporting gay marriage, and so on.

I call this out because while Donald Trump has often been known to shift the Overton window by suggesting extreme ideas, this time, the Democrats are driving and witnessing the shift.

As I mentioned above, following Biden's performance at the debate, what was unthinkable became plausible, and with his announcement last evening, it is the accepted position. Now, as the Democrats pick their next presidential candidate, they will begin to organise themselves in the next Overton window - selecting the popular, sensible and acceptable names Vs the radical and the unthinkable.

Conclusion:

All eyes are on the US as the Democrats select their next presidential candidate. While much is undecided, thankfully there are well known concepts, such as the Overton window, that can help us analyse where this is going to lead. While I don't pretend to know any more about this than you do, for those keen on observing politics and possibilities - this is an interesting scenario to engage the mind.

About Me:

I’m a?senior leader in the financial services industry with over 26 years of corporate experience and have held substantial leadership roles in firms such as HSBC , Barclays , Delta Capita , and BSkyB, and NatWest . I’m also an accredited coach, a published author, global speaker, Udemy instructor and a marathon finisher. Click here to contact me for coaching and speaking engagements.