The US Election is Over, the Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump Cements the Rebirth of the Orange Phoenix ????

Let's dive deep into the eye of this geopolitical tectonic shift. The recent assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania, whilst on the US Presidential Election trail, is an EPIC deal from multiple standpoints. From a Global Macro Consigliere viewpoint, let KVP break down some of the highest probability pathways & implications:

1. The Ultimate Teflon-Don: ???? Trump has just transcended to the epitome of Anti-Fragile & has entered the phase of being a living legend & patriotic martyr of the U S of A. This event will catapult his support to unprecedented levels & take closet (stealth) Trump supporters not just out of hiding, but straight to the voting booths - point being, now its much bigger than any one political party.

The 2024 election? It's OVER. The probability of Trump not becoming President is likely as close to zero as it can get. The lead he already had + this surge become an insurmountable advantage. The Dems? Absolutely cooked. You got Obi weighing in before Biden, who probably thinks it was himself that got shot.

Yet, time & time again, we've seen the Democrats seemingly operating in a vacuum, completely disconnected from their tax-paying citizens. Like many entitled incumbent elites globally (EU parliament, French election horse-traders), they see themselves as almost godlike - not to be questioned, not to be held accountable & sure as hell, not listening to their citizens who are literally paying for the privilege of being misgoverned.

This disconnect? It's about to cost them BIG TIME. Yet it is by no means an isolated incident in that part of the world.

2. Geopolitical Seismic Shift: ???? A new Trump Administration = less US Global Imperialism. Expect a dramatic pullback from foreign conflicts. This was a trademark of his last presidency (i.e. why are we spending trillions of US taxpayer money, with no transparency nor accountability, for people outside of the US. For context the fires in Maui saw $700 paid to the wildfire survivors, contrast that to the c. $7,000 paid per Ukrainian household with $11B in US aid [US taxpayers money] to Ukraine.)

So, the Ukraine-Russia conflict? We are likely in the tail-end, folks. There could possibly be a short-term escalation as the Ukrainian faction (including Biden/NATO) makes last-ditch efforts, but there is a reason this conflict has dragged on for years. Yet make no mistake - this is a done deal, at the very least in regards to the pouring out of money from US coffers.

Global trade & relations with the likes of China, as well as the EU, are a bit tougher to discern from the delta of the current administration. One big difference though will be the focus on immigration & the effectively open borders policy of the Biden-Kamala admin. One can expect potential positive developments in US relations with countries such as Argentina, El Salvador & Russia. Plus a potential cooling to worsening of relationships with countries/governing bodies such as NATO, UN, Iran, Israel & France. One can also expect Trump to be much more vocal towards the Fed (which is technically independent) & the need for a looser monetary policy.

3. Market's Reaction: ???? Expect markets & risk-assets to react VERY positively. We could see movement as soon as Asia opens on Monday, but more likely once the US session digests this.

4. Crypto: ???? The summer bear in crypto? This could mark a solid low. Trump's pro-digital assets stance is a potential catalyst. Its early days, yet given that crypto trades 24-7, we are already catching a bit Sun morning Asia time. If you are trading global macro or have a multi-strat/asset mandate, yet still don't have digital assets on your wheel... you are missing out big time!

5. Political Landscape: ????? Trump's VP choice? Irrelevant now. It's more about potentially taking whatever little oxygen is left for the Dems. The Dems were already on an accelerated time-decay, trying to replace Biden (who had very clear signs of being cognitively impaired for well over 2yrs now) with a new candidate. Their "best bet" might be courting Kennedy Jr. to drop his independent run, but post-assassination attempt? Too little, too late. And yes, Kennedy Jr. as VP would be the ultimate ice pick to the heart of the Dems. Because Kamala, Michelle, Obama, Clinton... they don't have anyone that can hold a candle to the Orange Phoenix.

The disconnect between traditional media narratives and reality has never been more stark. Watch how traditional media - read woke, democratic skewed narratives & click-bait - are likely going to continue to downplay this assassination attempt with "escorted away after loud noises" (that happened to kill an audience member & by our understanding has two people in critical condition) & "political violence". This is like calling the 9-11 Terrorist Attack, a coincidental accident on the twin towers.

Imagine if this had been Obama or Clinton - we'd hear about it 24/7 for years.

That Trump image will now be synonymous with the most iconic shots of history (pardon the pun). Yet, this event captures a much bigger structural challenge globally:

??The breaking of social contracts across most industrial & "developed" economies (US, Canada, Europe, New Zealand, Australia)

??Divergences between incumbent elites & the masses that they govern, who pay for their salaries (i.e. pay for the privilege to be misgoverned)

??Populist promises vs. stretched government balance sheets, as well as the zeitgeist of entitlement & vacuum of leaders willing to institute real reform

??Unsustainable policies & spending (i.e. US adding $1T of debt every 100 days, has +$1T of interest rate debt, already has +123% gov debt to GDP of $33.1 Trillion

??Narrative vs. Truth, Noise vs. Signal, echo chambers vs. true open townsquares (thank the universe for X [Twitter])

??Thing likely to get worse, until you get the tipping point of the pain-anger-frustration-discontent finally overriding the inertia of incumbency, incompetency, a lack of accountability, a lack of transparency & an overall lack of leadership. The frameworks & structural reform for today's modern society needs to be re-written, sooner rather than later... as the winter known as AI... is coming.

Lastly, that sapien known as The Donald is a masterclass in seizing the moment. If that is not the epitome of clutch, not sure what is.

Everything always presents an opportunity, even the most dangerous life threatening situations. What a #legend! ????

-KVP

#OONO #GOATSeries #GlobalMacro #Geopolitics #AntiFragile #TrumpPhoenix

Image Credit: Evan Vucci - Capturing the intense moment as loud pops rang out at Trump's rally, with the former president appearing with blood splatter on his face. July 13, 2024.