US Election Macro-Credit Reaction | My VegTech Invest Podcast | Rising Insurance Costs | Hong Kong Real Estate | Economists Hit The Road

Welcome to the latest edition of Essential Economics! The team was busy this week digesting the outcome of the US Presidential election: US Chief Economist Satyam Panday offers his views on the implications of a second Trump term, while our colleague David Tesher outlines what it means for credit. ?I share a recent podcast with VegTech Invest CEO Elysabeth Alfano, where we discussed my recent research on tipping points and sustainable growth. A Sustainability Insights team led by Ramki Muthukrishnan published a report on rising insurance costs in the US, the related affordability challenges, and the potential impact on government creditworthiness. Ricky Tsang and Emily Li report that the Hong Kong property downturn is spreading to banks, particularly smaller ones where property exposure is high. Finally, our economists are “hitting the road” next week. I will speak at the Economic Club of Colorado and Louis Kuijs will present at our virtual APAC credit conference.

Post-Trump Election Macro-Credit Reactions

Following the US election, Satyam offers his views on the potential economic implications of a second Trump term as president. Forecasting remains challenging amid significant uncertainty about the timing, magnitude, and interactions of proposed tariffs, immigration reforms, tax cuts, and regulatory shifts. We will firm up changes to our U.S. macroeconomic forecasts over the coming weeks.

To read Satyam’s article, click here.

David and team published an article on the on the credit implications of a second Trump term, noting that presidents enjoy fairly wide latitude to sign executive orders that can change the credit landscape. Many industries, especially tech, could suffer from higher input costs and margin pressures. And as Congress revisits the tax code, it opens the door to provisions that could have credit implications.

To read David’s article, click here.

VegTech Invest Podcast: Tipping Points and Growth

I recently appeared on the VegTech Invest podcast with CEO Elysabeth Alfano to discuss my research on tipping points and sustainable growth. We had a wide-ranging discussion on the way economists are beginning to incorporate natural capital into their work, and how that might contribute to the broader debates around sustainability and the just transition.

To watch the podcast, click here.

Sustainability Insights: Rising Insurance Costs, Affordability and Governments’ Creditworthiness

In a Sustainability report, Ramki and team write that with economic losses from Hurricanes Helene and Milton estimated to exceed $60 billion, we expect homeowners' insurance premiums will continue to rise in many regions of the U.S. Higher insurance premiums and diminishing coverage and availability could exacerbate existing U.S. housing affordability.

Regions experiencing a spike in the cost of living could be susceptible to demographic and demand shifts that pressure long-term tax base growth and credit stability.

To read the full report, click here.

Hong Kong Real Estate Woes Spread to Banks

Ricky and Emily report that a weak economy, a reduction of regional headquarters, and structural shifts in the retail sector will continue to weigh on Hong Kong's commercial property sector. Smaller financial institutions may be underestimating their bad loans to the sector and their exposure to property-related loans, as a ratio to total loans, is higher than that of large banks.

Individuals and small, financially aggressive property firms with large commercial property exposure will likely find they cannot service debt costs, potentially triggering asset sales at steep discounts.

To read the full report, click here.

Economists In Action Next Week

Louis and I are both in action on the conference circuit next week:

·??????? I will be in Denver on Nov 13th for my debut appearance at the Economic Club of Colorado, to give a Signature Luncheon address on our global and US macro views, including on the outcome of the recent election.

·??????? Louis will take part in our Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2025 Virtual Conference, joining our senior credit analysts to cut through the noise and explain what awaits the region next year.

For information on my Denver event, click here.

To register for the APAC credit seminar, click here.

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As always, you can always find the latest research from the S&P Global Ratings Economics team here.