Is the US dependent on the success of the mask strategy?

I've been thinking about compiling this for a while but after having people continuously tell me that I am wrong for simply asking questions, I decided it was time. I've been told numerous times "just wear a mask" and "it's the only tool we have". At what point is it acceptable to try to evaluate "the only tool" and to find a better one? I accumulated charts for all 50 states and DC with number of reported coronavirus cases as shared by the CDC on their website. These charts were clipped July 29, 2020. I tried to include as many links as possible so that you can read and decide for yourself what is important. I would like to preface everything else I will write with this statement: I am not making any claims in favor of either side of the mask debate. I cover my face as mandated when I need to enter a business. I am simply asking, is it possible that data does not support claims made by politicians of both sides? Is it possible that we need to try another possible solution?

MASK MANDATES

These states currently mandate face coverings. The date highlighted is when the mandate began (some states may be off a couple days based on inconsistent reports/articles using either the date it was announced or the date it became effective). This list does not include states that only mandate face coverings in certain counties or cities.

It's also important to note that the CDC says symptoms appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. The majority of people do not get tested until they have symptoms. Many states still do not test everyone. They test people with symptoms or people required to be tested for work, school, sports, potential exposure, etc. Some states or testing labs are still behind on testing and reporting results up to 14 days behind. It can be assumed because of this information that data in July is not complete yet and is not reflective of the actual total cases after mandates that became effective within the last month.

Alabama is one of few states that had an end date on their mandate. Alabama's mandate is effective July 15-31.

Arkansas has had a steady increase since May regardless of current restrictions and mandates. Arkansas never issued a stay-at-home order.

California has increased in caseload since the very beginning of the pandemic. They had some of the strictest and longest lockdowns and committed to keeping colleges closed this fall in May. Unlike New York, they didn't have a massive spike. One of California's indicators for modifying the stay-at-home order is the ability to develop therapeutics.

Colorado's chart looks like a wave up and down.

Connecticut replicated the pattern that New York had.

District of Columbia is starting to show a increase again. Time will tell whether or not their next increase imitates the same pattern as the last (before vs. after mandate).

Delaware fared much better than other states near New Jersey.

As an island, Hawaii has the benefit of anyone coming into the state either arriving in an airport or a port. Are people being tested when they arrive? What other ways could the virus spread? Another island that has done very well is Iceland. They operate almost completely normal. They require people arriving to isolate for 5 days and have 2 negative tests.

Illinois's pattern is similar to DC.

Indiana neighbors Illinois and seems to have the same pattern except slightly earlier and steeper. Illinois has almost double the population of Indiana.

Is Kansas having a reporting issue? Their 7-day average is relatively smooth with a slight increase but they skip many days. Or do they only test on certain days? The CDC states that dates are from when the sample was collected.

Despite proportionally low cases by population, will the mask mandate reverse the trend for Kentucky?

Louisiana currently is having more daily cases than the highly-publicized Mardi Gras outbreak.

Massachusetts also imitated New York's cases but at much lower levels.

Maryland had declining cases but is increasing again. As an early adopter of masks, does this show any correlation with mask mandates?

Maine appears to have quite a few cases. Looking at the y-axis, it is scaled significantly different than almost every other state.

Michigan was another highly-publicized state early in the outbreak. Overall, they don't have any worrisome trends other than their higher-than-desired numbers.

Does Minnesota not test on the weekends? Or maybe take a day off on reporting every 3-5 days?

Montana is like Maine in their appearance to have a problem. Their numbers are very low overall so their graph is scaled differently.

North Carolina's increase has been steady no matter what the current policy is.

New Jersey was in the top 5 states for cases and deaths early in the pandemic. Is it possible that the decline in cases is related to most people with a weak immune system already recovering from the virus?

Why is New Mexico continuously increasing despite restrictions and mandates?

Nevada reopened its casinos June 4, their top tourist destination.

New York state numbers do not include the outbreak in New York City.

The CDC separates reporting from the New York state and New York City. Imagine what the combined graph would look like.

Ohio was considered a worrisome state in March. Regionally, they took some of the first steps towards lockdown.

Oregon

Pennsylvania's governor initially wanted to mandate masks in mid-April. After less than 2 days, the language switched to a suggestion. In early June, the state legislature revoked his emergency declaration which included his mask "requirement". Most people and businesses were following the guidelines since mid-April specifically in southeastern PA where the outbreak had primarily occurred. He officially mandated masks July 1.

Rhode Island

Texas has made national news for months regarding their reopening.

Virginia is also seeing small waves with continuous new cases.

Washington had the first reported case in the country in January.

West Virginia was the last state to get its first case. It has one of the oldest and poorest populations with a very high rate of underlying conditions.

MASK SUGGESTIONS

The rest of the states do not currently have a mask mandate statewide.

Alaska was said to have limited cases for a long time due to their separation from the continental US. It borders Canada's Yukon which currently has 3 active cases that are travel-related within Canada.

Arizona is making headlines for increasing cases. They appear to be declining again.

Florida was supposed to be the next epicenter in March as told by the mainstream media. They've had a significant increase within the last 1-2 months.

Georgia, like Texas, has had their reopening make national news. Despite opening in late-April/ early-May, they didn't have a noticeable increase until mid-June.

Iowa is another state that hasn't had significant spiking without statewide mandates.

Idaho had a flat curve for almost two months. What caused the increase? Is it tied to travel? Weather?

Missouri has had increasing caseload but has avoided the national news cycle.

Mississippi mandates masks for counties with a higher caseload.

North Dakota hasn't had a large number of cases overall but they are increasing.

Nebraska was declining but they may beginning a pattern similar to Maryland.

New Hampshire had a peak which then leveled off without any statewide mask mandates.

Oklahoma hosted Trump's rally on June 20 in Tulsa. Their increase doesn't appear to differ greatly from any other state.

South Carolina may have finished their peak.

South Dakota has had one of the flattest curves and some of the least restrictive measures in place. Their high case counts were tied to the outbreak at the Smithfield meatpacking facility in Sioux Falls.

Tennessee seems to be having a steady increase.

Utah has the youngest population in the country.

Vermont issued a mandate that will go into effect August 1. What is the key indicator that warranted this mandate? According to the governor, it is a result of increasing rates of infection in the south and the west (of the country).

Wisconsin has a steadier pattern than its neighboring Minnesota and Michigan. Are they doing more consistent testing?

Wyoming has a small, steady increase without a lockdown in a very rural area.

All of these charts show total daily cases reported with their 7-day average trend lines. They are all scaled different on their y-axis as cases differ across the country. Even more important, when compared by population, some states still have done significantly better than others. Overall, most states are showing an increase. The exceptions are mostly the states hard-hit in March.

This map shows cases scaled by population. The best five states are Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Montana and West Virginia. Hawaii has its travel limited by not being in the continental US. Vermont borders New York and Massachusetts, both hard-hit states. Maine, Montana and West Virginia are all rural with few cities. Although, West Virginia borders Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia, all relatively hard-hit states.

What all of these charts and maps show is how many people get diagnosed with covid-19. It doesn't show the recovery rate. This map shows the deaths compared to population.

The states with the least amount of deaths reported to be caused by coronavirus are Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana and West Virginia. Compared to cases, Alaska and Wyoming have done better with treatment, knocking Vermont and Maine off the list. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island have had the greatest amount of their population die from the virus. Perhaps this is correlated to the fact that those states were some of the first to get cases and doctors didn't know the best way to treat the disease yet. Another factor is the elderly being more susceptible to both getting and dying from the virus. Nursing homes had many outbreaks in the beginning of the pandemic. Five states put covid-19 patients in nursing homes: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania. Of those, California is the only state not to have a a higher than average death rate based on deaths per 100,000. States that did not enter lockdown did better than average on their death rate. In fact, Wyoming didn't lock down and ranked #3.

A month from now, American kids should be going back to the classroom to learn. They should be learning social skills, getting exercise, and practicing their phonics. Their teachers are going to ensure a classroom of kids that can't keep their fingers out of their noses keeps cloth masks on their faces all day long without touching them while simultaneously teaching them how to pronounce words with a face mask on. The media suggests they use a face shield while the CDC says it's still unknown if they provide any protection and that they are not a substitute for face masks (likely due to the growing evidence supporting the claim that it is possible for the particles to be airborne). More from NIH

Psychologists are predicting that the burdens of everything going on right now will increase suicide rates. The CDC's data on suicide mortality is released two years later so it will take a while to find out the true effects. There are local reports (anecdotal evidence) saying their rates are up such as Dougherty County, Georgia which has seen their typical annual total already this year. A study by Everytown for Gun Safety suggested a possible 20-30% increase resulting in 20 more deaths per day.

Here are some jobs that would be considered experts on certain topics related to covid-19:

PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES SUCH AS MASKING, DISTANCING, SHIELDS, ETC.

• Health and Safety Engineer : "Health and safety engineers develop procedures and design systems to protect people from illness and injury and property from damage."
• Environmental Science and Protection Technicians : "Environmental science and protection technicians monitor the environment and investigate sources of pollution and contamination, including those affecting public health."
• Occupational Health and Safety Specialist : "Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians collect data on and analyze many types of work environments and work procedures. Specialists inspect workplaces for adherence to regulations on safety, health, and the environment. Technicians work with specialists in conducting tests and measuring hazards to help prevent harm to workers, property, the environment, and the general public."
• Statistician : "Mathematicians and statisticians analyze data and apply mathematical and statistical techniques to help solve real-world problems in business, engineering, healthcare, or other fields."

MEDICAL SCIENCE

• Microbiologist (includes virology) : "Microbiologists study microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, algae, fungi, and some types of parasites. They try to understand how these organisms live, grow, and interact with their environments."
• Medical Scientist (can include immunology) : "Medical scientists conduct research aimed at improving overall human health. They often use clinical trials and other investigative methods to reach their findings."
• Physician : "Physicians and surgeons diagnose and treat injuries or illnesses. Physicians examine patients; take medical histories; prescribe medications; and order, perform, and interpret diagnostic tests. They often counsel patients on diet, hygiene, and preventive healthcare. Surgeons operate on patients to treat injuries, such as broken bones; diseases, such as cancerous tumors; and deformities, such as cleft palates."
• Emergency Medical Technician : "Emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics care for the sick or injured in emergency medical settings. People’s lives often depend on the quick reaction and competent care provided by these workers. EMTs and paramedics respond to emergency calls, performing medical services and transporting patients to medical facilities."
• Biochemist : "Biochemists and biophysicists study the chemical and physical principles of living things and of biological processes, such as cell development, growth, heredity, and disease."

POLICY AND GOVERNMENT

• Political Scientist : "Political scientists study the origin, development, and operation of political systems. They research political ideas and analyze governments, policies, political trends, and related issues."
• Top Executive : "Top executives plan strategies and policies to ensure that an organization meets its goals. They coordinate and direct work activities of companies and organizations."
• Legislator : "Develop, introduce, or enact laws and statutes at the local, tribal, state, or federal level. Includes only workers in elected positions."

Dr. Fauci has been the director (top executive) of NIAID since 1984. He is a physician by training. Is it weird that he has been considered the expert on everything coronavirus-related from the start of the Coronavirus Task Force? The Coronavirus Task Force included members from a long list of government administrations including representatives from the CDC (includes NIOSH) and Department of Labor (includes OSHA). These would be better subject-matter experts on masks than a physician. Doctors don't typically have to take more than two statistics courses.

MY ANALYSIS

Death rate seems to be most closely aligned with the date of first cases. Earlier cases had higher death rates. This is good news. We are learning best practices in treating it or it is weakening. Case rate seems to be most closely aligned with population density. Here is a map of the population density by state.

A lot of the dark, dense states of the northeast plus Florida and California have had a greater number of cases scaled to population. Here is the case map again.

New Jersey had the 5th highest case rate, 2nd highest death rate, and has the highest density. Italy had a similar outcome with their spike being over. Coronavirus cases:

Based on the "stay home" narrative, you would assume that states with high amounts of essential workers would perform worse. United Way's findings don't appear to support this. Why is it that before mask mandates states with high percentages of essential workers (not staying at home locked down) did, in many cases, better than states with low percentages?

The media doesn't cover all reports and it is biased. All research and data isn't accessible easily to the public. From the data that is (these maps), it is hard to say that our current strategy is working. Knowing that the virus spreads more easily indoors and fall is coming, what are the leaders doing to ensure that as people migrate indoors they are not increasingly becoming ill? More importantly, what are politicians doing to allow medical professionals to have the greatest chance possible of developing a treatment that prevents death or lifelong complications? That is the real problem of the pandemic. Why is the media working to divide people and turning science into a political game?

When taking a statistics class, you are taught that the data cannot "prove" or "disprove" anything. An analyst makes a hypothesis and, after performing statistical tests, determines if the results support the claim made in the hypothesis. Statisticians study science and science changes because things are tested and retested. This is why claims made by the WHO and CDC have completely reversed course. What is troubling was their adamant insistence that their claims were fact so early in their research. It takes time to receive enough information to basically prove something to be fact. Nothing about the novel coronavirus has been known or studied long enough to prove anything.

I compiled all of this because I have questions about our strategy that seems to be totally reliant on masking and restrictions. There are so many people claiming "just wear a mask" without providing any evidence of the success. Is it possible that mask mandates and restrictions encourage people to move their time spent socializing to private places (homes) instead of places such as restaurants where distance would be maintained and the interaction would likely be shorter? Is it possible that masks give people a false sense of security and are more likely to go out of their homes and get closer to others? Is it possible that there is a biological trait that determines your likelihood of getting covid-19 and it is only a matter of time of when you will get it if you have the trait? Has anyone studied two children that have been exposed to the same infected person for the same amount of time, one that got covid and one that didn't? Coronavirus has been known to be in the United States for over 6 months and there appears to be no sign of relief. Why are we suffering so much more than other countries? Do we have a different strain, is our population immune-compromised due to something, or are other countries curing their populations? With what?

As Ken Coleman said, "Good questions inform, great questions transform."

We have some actual data from the last few months from states that locked down and/or mandated masks. Let's look at who did best and ask why. Let's depend on all the correct experts to solve the problems and create innovative solutions. Let's help them by asking intelligent questions rather than having emotionally-appealing debates of scientific research. Let's focus on health rather than cases and fear. (If a class of kindergartners all needed a band-aid, people wouldn't worry- wounds heal. If the same class all had a concussion, or worse, tragically died, the situation would be investigated.)