US Death Toll Tops 50K

Apr 24 20 - Rem COVID-19 Report #33

For the regions I'm tracking, here's what I'm seeing, for the past 37 days:

Worldwide.  New cases Thursday increased to 81.0K, increasing the weekly average to 77.7K. Recoveries were light at 25.5K, under the weekly average of 27.5K. 7,448 deaths marked the second highest figure of the past week, a full thousand greater than average.

#1 United States. New cases were also up here, to 34.8K, also the second highest figure of the past week, moving the average to 30.5K new cases. The daily growth rate continues to hover near 4%. 4,490 recoveries were about 10% to the right side of average. Even a modest daily death figure of 2,398 was enough to propel the total now to 50,372, easily the highest reported of any country worldwide, almost twice Italy’s 25,549.

 #1.1 New York State (US).  Again posted a sizeable increase on Thursday, with 6,201 more new cases, about 300 more than average this past week.  For 5 days in a row now, there has been no change in reported total deaths or recoveries, so I’m expecting catch up data to be posted over the weekend.

#2 Spain. Again had a large increase yesterday, to 4.6K new cases, well above their past weekly average of now over 4.0K. Recoveries continued to be strong, recording another 3.3K, against just 440 deaths, data very similar to Wednesday’s figures.

#3. Italy.  New cases of 2.6K resumed the overall general decline in daily new cases, bringing the past week’s average back under 3.0K. Recoveries were at a new daily high of 3,233, plus 464 deaths were recorded. Thus for the fourth day in a row, Italy’s Simple CrossOver was over 100%, meaning another net reduction in open cases.

 #8 China Mainland. Four consecutive days now, of no change in the Chinese reporting. About 2,000 cases remain open and unresolved, of their 88.4K total.

I will continue tracking the data and post further updates.

David L. Remington

April 24, 2020

Background: At the intersection of intellectual curiosity and self-interest, I've been studying to data my own way, the past several days, regarding the COVID-19 outbreak.

Specifically, I'm curious about a couple things:

1. How do recoveries compare to new cases? I read a few weeks ago, this was considered a key inflection point, in the tide turning of the outbreak's reach.

2. How do the United States numbers compare to Italy's? I've heard varying assessments, that we're on a XX day lag. I want to track for myself what the data says.

Method: every morning, I generally wake up between 5:00 and 6:00 US East Coast time. I snap screen shots from the Bing website data.

I collect 3 data points: Confirmed Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries.

I calculate daily data as follows. If you're an accountant by trade like myself, this "Inventory" or "Cost of Production" model will look familiar from 101 or 201:

Yesterday's Open Cases

+ New Cases

= Total Open Cases Yesterday

- Deaths Yesterday

- Recoveries Yesterday

= This Morning's Open Cases

This helps me track what happened over the past ~ 24 hours, or "yesterday".