US-Chinese showdown: implications for Lebanon and Iran
As the US-Chinese standoff has passed the point of no-return, there are growing fears across the globe of the implications of this hot cold war between two giants, each seeking to deny the other global supremacy. The recent developments in Hong Kong have triggered the recent strategic shift in the US-Chinese dynamic, but the forthcoming US sanctions will also seek to thwart a Chinese-Iranian deal by blocking financial transactions and punishing Chinese banks, as well as blocking military deals between the two countries by seeking to renew an arms embargo on Iran and other methods. China will not remain silent, but it is anxious of the repercussions of any sanctions on its financial system. According to sources, a small country like Lebanon may be useful to Beijing, which may want to leverage Lebanon’s financial system to avoid US sanctions. This however would carry extreme dangers for Lebanon, which is already in the process of being completely swallowed by Iran through Hezbollah, at the behest of the highest decision-making levels in Iran. All this comes amid reports indicating Hezbollah recently obtained serious financial assistance from Tehran, which had in turned received funds from China, as an incentive for their new bilateral deal.
In the coming two weeks, senior Hezbollah leaders are set to visit Tehran to finalize a strategy for the coming few months. Iran is preparing to use both Lebanon and Iraq to serve its objectives in the context of the relationship with the US and Israel. According to sources familiar with the thinking of the regime in Tehran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard intend to “secure by the end of 2020 full scale control of Lebanon by Hezbollah”. The sources said Iran considers Lebanon a key ‘base’ and “has decided to mobilize Hezbollah for strong measures against Israel in September, the decision for which will be taken in an important meeting in two weeks”.
The reason September was chosen is that Israel is planning to launch annexation measures that month, and Tehran is readying and mobilizing for that eventuality. Second, Tehran cannot continue forever to pretend Israel is not behind the sabotage attacks taking place on its soil and will need to respond militarily to the mysterious explosions – through the Lebanese territory. Third, Tehran believes it is in its interests to create a crisis for Trump shortly before the presidential election in November.
In other words, the leaders in Iran believe they have a wild card, namely, Lebanon, that will allow them to impact the US election if a decision is made to escalate the situation in September. Iraq is also an important asset for Iran, and in the event of an international crisis, the Iranian strategy is to launch simultaneous action in both countries. According to the Iranian view, Washington is fully consumed with the presidential election, and would not act to stop Iran from controlling Lebanon through Hezbollah and its allies, or uphold Lebanon’s neutrality, which is categorically rejected by Iran.
During the 12th e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WqTF43Z1RQ), Danielle Pletka, Senior Fellow and former Senior Vice President for Foreign and Defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “the tragedy of Lebanon…is that no one really cares”. However, she warned that Hezbollah is in no condition to help Iran currently, saying that it is not in the interest of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nassrallah to start a war with Israel, even if Khamenei asks him to.
Vuk Jeremi?, President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development and former Foreign Minister of Serbia, said that the Lebanon, like Bosnia, cannot fix its problems itself, “but I don't think that anyone is going to jump in and help solving those problems in the foreseeable future… But I'm an optimist that it's good that both countries are going to survive”.
Abdulaziz Sager, Founder and Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said that if the Lebanese cannot fix their country themselves, no external power can completely fix it, “so maybe we need the Lebanese civil society to step in again to try to re-fix the situation in Lebanon”.
Interestingly, Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, after agreeing with the other guests that corruption was the scourge eating up Lebanon, said this was one disease Russia cannot help cure. Trenin also qualified Russia’s alliance with Hezbollah in Syria, saying: “the alliances that Russia has today are very different from the alliances of the Soviet Union, or the alliances of the United States. These are situational alliances for limited space, limited objectives, limited length of time…with the Hezbollah boots on the ground, Russia has managed to do what it managed to do in Syria. But that's it. I mean Russia does not support Iranian policies across the Middle East, Russia is with Iran for a certain objective, and even there in Syria, Russia and Iran in fact are competitors and the asset is playing one off the other”.
What of Hezbollah’s engagement of China? Trenin said: “China is not stepping into the political or geopolitical morass of the Middle East. China is about business at this point, China is about oil …about infrastructure, geopolitics, military stuff, conflict….China stays away from that it doesn't have the competence, it doesn't have the experience, it doesn't have the wherewithal for that”.
Abdulaziz Sager recalled that China imports 32 percent of its oil from the Gulf region, including 1.7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia. Despite this, he said, when the issue is raised about the impact of deteriorating US-Chinese relations, “they seem to forget about us and the Gulf…[but] the whole US relation to China will have a massive impact on the Gulf”.
In reality, all sides are worried about the fallout from the US-Chinese showdown. Europe is anxious and wants to maintain some kind of neutrality in this standoff, according to Vuk Jeremi?, and so does Russia, according to Dmitri Trenin. Yet everyone will have to cope with tense US-Chinese relationship, because it cannot be mended, according to Danielle Pletka. Pletka said that if Biden wins the election, his presidency will not be an extension of the Obama presidency but will be a continuation of the Trump presidency in many foreign policy issues, especially on China, Russia, Israel, Europe, and even Iran, with the exception of a return to the JCPOA albeit under Biden’s terms.
According to informed sources, a decision was reached at highest level in Washington in a ‘hawkish’ meeting in mid-July, to create a broad coalition against China that includes the United States, Europe, India, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and other nations. According to the sources, the decision also included the following: Expelling Chinese tech companies, shutting down consulates – as happened in Houston, thwarting any deals between China and Iran, and blocking off the financial system in Hong Kong in a way that would deny China any chance to leverage the enclave’s economy to its advantage. In addition, the sources said, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien to establish an independent international commission of inquiry (outside the UN) to monitor human rights violations in China. Moreover, President Trump will not sign the second phase of the trade deal with China, and will introduce new tariffs on Chinese imports.
“This is an unprecedented escalation in the US-Chinese showdown that may lead to military confrontations in the China Sea,” the sources said, adding: “This new level of confrontation is very serious and can decimate global economic and political stability”.
Donald Trump wants to convene the G7 Summit in the United States in September, with a view to focus on isolating China. The Trump administration is also preparing to launch a massive campaign seeking to expel China from the global economic and political system. The priority for the United States new strategy is to target China as the number one adversary, a decision that has been made by Trump but that the Democrats do not appear to oppose.
Sources familiar with the thinking in China said Beijing is taking these developments very seriously, and are anxious about this escalation, expecting the US strategy to isolate China to have serious costs for China and its plans. Russia is also anxious because President Vladimir Putin cannot stand with China against Washington, and cannot defer to what China wants. Iran may not be anxious, but it should be given its alignment with China against the United States.
The tragicomedy here is that Lebanon may end up being a major battleground after its doors were opened to China and Iran against the United States. The Trump administration may be oblivious to this small Lebanese detail in the big picture, and to the repercussions of a total collapse in this country that would place it under full Iranian control, allowing Tehran to offer Lebanon’s financial system as bounty for China. Washington could also be aware of this important aspect and be making preparations. Either way, we are on the cusp of a new, dangerous chapter.