US and China Climate Agreement Ahead of COP 28

With COP 28 less than two weeks away, an agreement between the US and China builds momentum for a constructive conference. The agreement is to “recall, reaffirm, and commit” to joint efforts in fighting climate change and meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.?

Climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua met in Sunnylands, California, before the summit to revive a bilateral climate working group and hammer out some pre-COP agreements. " The Sunnylands statement is a timely effort of aligning the United States and China ahead of COP28, " said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society.

The US-China agreement covers forestry, circular economy, plastic pollution, and air pollution. From a climate perspective, the most important aspect was the agreement to triple renewable energy capacity this decade. The parties also committed to reducing Methane emissions -? a greenhouse gas (GHG) more than 80 times more potent than CO2 over the short term.??

The results of the US-China summit helped improve diplomatic relations and will present a collaborative front at COP 28, where the countries will host a methane and non-CO2 gas summit.

Manish Bapna , president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called the agreement “a foundation of ambition ” ahead of the U.N. climate summit in Dubai, adding, "This sends a powerful message of cooperation on the existential challenge of our time.”

Others were wary about the deal, pointing to the glaring omission of any mention of coal usage. Bernice Lee OBE of Chatham House said, “Progress on fossil fuels wasn't what I expected to see, as they both have constraints… My suspicion is that it has proven to be too difficult to find the form of language that works for both .”

Adding more optimism ahead of COP 28, the EU has pledged to make a “significant contribution” to the world’s first “loss and damage fund” being launched at this year’s event to help developing nations deal with climate disasters. The statement said: "The (EU Climate) Commissioner is ready to announce a substantial financial contribution by the EU and its member states to the loss & damage fund at COP28 in the context of an ambitious outcome at COP28 ."

In a Nick of Time

The US and China climate agreement came just in time to build a wave of optimism before COP28. On a sobering note, a series of new reports revealed the extent of the challenge in front of us.?

The first report analyzed countries' decarbonization efforts , finding they are currently insufficient. The report revealed that if countries meet their current climate pledges (and that is a big if), emissions will be 9% higher in 2030 than in 2010. Although this is an improvement from last year, it is still far below the decarbonization needed to keep warming below 1.5°C. “Today’s report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis ,” said Simon Stiell of the UN climate change agency.

Similarly, a report from the World Economic Forum and BCG reiterated the insufficient levels of climate action to meet the Paris Agreement. The State of The Climate Report shows that although we need to reduce emissions by 7% year-on-year to meet our 2030 goals, they are still rising.?

Another report from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The Green House Gas Bulletin, found that in 2022, CO2 levels were 50% above pre-industrial levels for the first time and continued to grow in 2023. Other major GHGs, Methane and Nitrous Oxide, also grew in concentration, with the latter seeing its highest rise ever in 2022.

GHG concentrations like this have not been experienced on Earth for 3-5 million years when the global temperature was 2-3C warmer and sea levels were 10-20 meters higher than today. WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said, “Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports, and dozens of climate conferences, we are still heading in the wrong direction .”

The Fifth National Climate Assessment

Climate Change is now affecting more Americans than ever, and the US is heating up 60% quicker than the rest of the planet, but there is some promising news, too.?

The US’s Fifth Annual National Climate Assessment revealed that climate-related disasters now cost $150 billion each year and there is a new multi-billion dollar disaster every three weeks, as opposed to every four months in the 1980s.?

On the positive side, the US is decarbonizing, having reduced emissions by 12% between 2005 and 2019. The assessment also came with this accompanying tool to allow people to see how climate change is affecting their regions.?

Renowned climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe , who contributed to the report, said, “Too many people still think of climate change as an issue that’s distant from us in space or time or relevance ,” this assessment shows “how climate change is affecting us here, in the places where we live, both now and in the future.”?

Biden’s Climate Investments Paying Dividends??

In announcing the National Climate Assessment, President Biden said, “This assessment shows us in clear scientific terms that climate change is impacting all regions, all sectors of the United States ,” and pledged an additional $6 billion for climate resiliency. Additionally, the administration announced $444 million in funding for 16 new carbon capture sites across 12 states .?

Serving as a case study for creating new clean manufacturing jobs in rural communities is Blythewood, a small town in South Carolina.? With funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, a new Volkswagen Electric Vehicle factory will be built in Blythewood, bringing much-needed jobs, education, and infrastructure to the area.?

Climate Litigation Gut Check

Climate activist's court strategy was tested this week as ClientEarth lost a major case and Shell sued Greenpeace.

ClientEarth’s historic court case against Shell’s Board of Directors lost its final appeal this week . The non-profit alleged that Shell’s 11 directors had breached their legal duties under the UK Companies Act by failing to adopt and implement an energy transition strategy that aligns with the Paris Agreement, a claim that the High Court of England dismissed.?

Shell was also in the courts on the other side of the dock , as they sought $2.1 million in damages from Greenpeace after environmental protesters boarded a Shell boat transporting oil and gas infrastructure last year. Greenpeace is contesting the fine, saying it is one of the biggest legal threats they have faced.?

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Other Notable News:

• I was interviewed for this BBC article, which takes on the increasing controversy over ESG and Net Zero . The article explains that the term ESG is overused and vague, leading to accusations of greenwashing and a political backlash. It goes on to outline the difficulties companies are facing in implementing their Net Zero pledges.?
• This article from the Economist shows how the promise of green jobs may be false . Making the argument that investing in manufacturing and other industrial jobs to fight climate change is contradictory. Even though sometimes the promise of jobs is needed to get green policies over the line,?
• This new article from BCG discusses the significant impact the EU’s new ESG regulations will have on emerging markets . It shows that emerging markets are unprepared for measures, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the EU Deforestation Regulation, which could drastically affect their exports and economic growth.
• The EU has set the global standard for methane reduction . The deal will oblige the gas, oil, and coal industries to properly measure, monitor, report, and verify their methane emissions according to the highest monitoring standards and take action to reduce them.
• Carbon credits company SouthPole is in the news again for all the wrong reasons , as a biomass carbon credit scheme they were running in China was implicated in potential Uyghur forced labor.
• You’ve probably heard of the Time 100 most influential people. This year, for the first time, they released a Times 100 Climate list—a list of the 100 most influential climate leaders in business for 2023 . The list includes people like Bill Gates , CDP Founder Paul Dickinson , and architect of California's recent climate disclosure bill, Scott Wiener , among many others shaping the climate movement.
• This Times article features another Times Climate 100 member, COP 28’s president, Sultan Al Jaber .? It reveals Al Jaber’s realistic approach to climate change, acknowledging the need to phase down fossil fuels but recognizing the world's current dependence on them. Although his other role within the fossil fuel industry may seem paradoxical, he has actually spearheaded the UAE's advancements in renewable energy and has attempted to balance the country's oil production with climate commitments.

Notable Podcasts:?

• In this week’s episode of The Harvard Business Reviews, Climate Rising podcast , the first episode in their hard-to-abate series, they look at decarbonizing trucking. The episode features Linnéa Kornehed Falck , Deputy CEO of Einride, a trucking company aiming to decarbonize trucking with battery electric autonomous trucks orchestrated via route-optimization software.
• This episode of the New York Times The Daily explores whether President Biden’s plan to supercharge the production and sale of electric vehicles through the Inflation Reduction Act has been successful . The short answer is yes, but although production has ramped up in a big way, sales have yet to meet the increase in production.
• In this week’s episode of Outrage and Optimism , the three hosts, Christiana Figueres , Paul Dickinson , and Tom Rivett-Carnac, cover a host of topics. From this year’s winners of The Earth Shot Prize to how we can prepare for an uninsurable future and how religious communities can help with the climate crisis.