IS THE US BROKERED DRC-M23 HUMANITARIAN SUSTAINABLE?

On 5th?July 2024, the US announced that M23 and DRC government had reached a truce for a two weeks humanitarian ceasefire with hope for a permanent ceasefire. This news comes in the wake of deteriorating humanitarian and security situation in the Eastern part of DRC which has experienced conflicts for several years.

According to JOYCE MSUYA, Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator, The DRC is “the most food insecure country in the world,” she said, noting that nearly one in four Congolese or 23.4?million people are experiencing acute hunger and more than 7.2?million people are internally displaced. ?Between December?2023 and March?2024 alone, the latter increased by an alarming 700,000 people.

M23 advancement on the Northern front last week and their eventual capture of more territory only worsens the humanitarian situation which is already out of hand. Therefore, the US brokered ceasefire and supported by the Congolese and Rwandan governments, is meant to facilitated the voluntary return of displaced persons and unhindered access for humanitarian personnel to vulnerable populations. But, there seems to be silence from both Kinshasa and Kigali about the currents ceasefire something which doesn’t send good signals especially that previous ceasefire agreements were often breached days after being announced such as the one brokered last year in November.

Since the expulsion of the EAC Regional Force by Tshisekedi?and opting for SADC Regional Force the situation hasn’t improved anywhere. In fact tensions between Rwanda and DRC have equally deteriorated a midst allegation against Rwanda support for M23. During DRC the 2023 elections campaigns, H.E Tshisekedi in seemly an act of declaring war against Rwanda said "If you re-elect me, and if Rwanda persists in its aggression, I will request Parliament and Congress to authorize a declaration of war."?On the other end, Rwanda has denied any allegation of it support to M23 but has continuously called upon DRC to deal with its internal problem (M23).

The sustainability of the ceasefire will largely depend on how DRC and Rwanda respond and will be key to the ongoing mediation by Angolan President Joao Lourenco. ?However, with Kagame likely to win the July general elections, The position of the two capitals won’t change any sooner something which affect the quest for a permanent solution over the Eastern DRC conflict.