URSABLOG: Unintended Consequences

The approach of the New Year tends to lead to a period of reflection of the twelve months that have passed, as though the quiet time after the Christmas excesses demands us to slow down and take stock. It is a time when the media churns out reviews of 2022, and starts to make predictions of what could happen in 2023. But if there is one thing that 2022 has taught me it is fairly pointless to place hopes in what should happen, and to be prepared for things not to turn out as you have planned, however much effort and faith you put into those plans.?

The year had not got very far before Russia embarked on its special military operation. It looked a dead cert: roll the tanks into Ukraine, and Ukrainians would joyfully accept their liberation from the nazified clutches of the NATO driven west. Well it’s safe to say that didn’t work out quite as planned.

China’s year was dedicated to making sure that Xi Jinping got his third term in November. The methods used for this counted in large part on a suppression of dissent, using zero COVID restrictions as a blunt tool to facilitate this, always guided by a protective and benevolent great leader. Barely weeks after his triumphant procession, those restrictions have been relaxed after unprecedented dissent and COVID sweeps the land unhindered. The markets, who have been factoring in the post-COVID lockdown boom are now pricing in a slowdown because of COVID.

Liz Truss, having become Prime Minister after being democratically elected by perhaps the world’s smallest and oldest electorate, put her pro-growth plans into action against all reasonable counsel and was kicked out barely weeks later as the markets, her party and the wider electorate dismissed her as an ineffective joke.

There are many lessons to be learned from this, but the one I like to take from it is the unintended consequence. It may seem obvious in hindsight that what happened was always going to happen, but at the time it was not even considered. Any forecasts I could make for shipping in 2023 should therefore have the following disclaimer:

I am one set of eyes and ears, with one brain, with a set of hardened prejudices that I like to call experience and wisdom, which are just in fact a self-defence mechanism to protect my own sense of importance. I may say a few things that amuse you, make you think or even inspire you, but don’t take it for granted for one minute that what I say will turn out to be true or I even know what I am talking about.

The fact that you probably already think that and I hadn’t realised it just goes to show how important such a disclaimer is, if only for me.

Unintended consequences for Mr Putin’s actions have included a closing of the ranks of the west, a more united front against unwarranted aggression, and a world that has recoiled in disgust at even the bare mention of nuclear weapons being used in the theatre of war. All sorts of other interesting things have happened in the markets which have left many people happier with their financial performance without even going anywhere near Russia or Russian business.

Unintended consequences for President Xi’s coronation include a weakened Party and state, where the inevitability of the accumulation of power, and the growth of strength, has not been resisted, but challenged.

An unintended consequence of Liz Truss’s short-lived premiership has been a reassessment of Brexit, and if not a full rejection of it, at least a realisation that it hasn’t worked out quite as planned, to say the least, and perhaps it may be a good idea to be on better terms with near neighbours.

If I can take a lesson of hope, as I wish to do at this time, it is that this year has, in fact, been a push back against the dogmatic ideas of isolated people by real life, real people, real events, real markets, forces that none of us can ever control. Power is illusory, temporary and fickle. This is not to say that this power has not been used to cause untold death, pain, suffering and loss, but at least we can see that evil, mendacity or plain spitefulness cannot survive unchecked – sooner or later – by truth. Or put another way by Livy:

Truth is often eclipsed, but never extinguished.

But there is another lesson hiding beneath all of this: success does not lie in control alone. A willingness to not only listen, not only to change our minds, but to change, and be an agent of change will make us better people, and do good for those around us. But before I fall into the same trap and start speaking for everyone who manifestly do not think the same as me, I will refrain from trying to tell you how to think.

However this year, with all its challenges, pain, suffering and loss ends for me with a hope for better, much better things in store. I will not share with you all my ups and downs in my personal and professional life; this is not the right place for it, and you will find it dull anyway. But there have been some points in this year – particularly the latter part – where I have been surprised at my own resilience and strength. This strength has not come from being super fit, or disciplined, or aggressive, or ‘being the best version of myself’ or other such meaningless phrases. Please bear that in mind before you make unreasonable or even impossible New Year’s resolutions.

Someone asked me earlier in the year “What’s your Parthenon, the achievement that you are proudest of in your life?” After some thought I replied “I haven’t built it yet.” This reply was greeted with all sorts of surprise and protestation, but it sat well with me. During another discussion (probably over wine, these discussions normally take place with wine), I was asked what I would have put on my gravestone. I replied: “Work In Progress.”

Everything changes, for better, for worse, and in any case we cannot see into the future. There are times in the past that I look back on now where I say to myself “If only I had…” but this is a useless regret and a waste of time. Indeed there are times in the past year when I have wasted a great deal of precious time just trying to work out what I can spend another period of precious time wasting.

Then at other times events move in such a way that – although when I reflect on them I can perhaps work out how one thing led to another – at the time it seem so totally unexpected and out of the blue that I become defensive, and protective, and guarded, and resistant to the gifts that these unexpected events bring. Or worse, I am dismissive of them, thinking of them as only lucky events, or because of something else that happened, or what someone else wanted. I do not recommend this way of thinking.

Everything exists in relation to everything else. The joy of life, the hope of life comes to me when I absorb the beauty of this rather mind blowing concept and look to the future and see what really is possible, despite the obstacles ahead – people, or attitudes, or society, or the competition, myself mostly, which although real are not insurmountable – which need to be overcome. In embracing the opportunities that I can now see have suddenly been made available to me, I am ready: not to finally achieve something worthwhile, not to become a better version of myself, not even to make yesterday jealous, but simply to live. And life is too precious a commodity to waste.

This is my unintended consequence of 2022. A year that started and continued in the shadow of dread and fear is ending with an insistence to take advantage of all the possibilities that life can bring. Having a resolution to live may not sound like much to you, but in view of the alternatives available, it is more than enough to me.

Wishing you all a New Year of health, happiness, success, and life.?

Simon Ward

www.ursashipbrokers.gr