The Urgent Need to Expand UK Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

There is an urgent need to expand electric vehicle (EV) public charging infrastructure in the UK. This article draws upon research I and colleagues at Savills have carried out on the market. There is a requirement for a significant step-up in provision and servicing of EV charging infrastructure, particularly at a neighbourhood level. Without this there is a growing likelihood lack of appropriate charging infrastructure will dampen sales of EVs.

A Need for a Step-Change in Provision of EV Charging

At present there are around 37m cars and vans in the UK. The characteristics of the market mean the requirement is very different to the current petrol filling station infrastructure. Our initial modelling estimates that there is a need for around 2m public charging points once all vehicles are electric. (This compares to around 8,400 petrol filling stations). There are currently around 59,600 charging points in the UK meaning the requirement is equivalent to a 3,250% increase. This is fundamentally different to more mature markets that might grow at say 5-10% per year. Even if less charging points are needed and/or the market rate of growth in EV sales slows down at times (as it is the case presently) we estimate the scale of the challenge will remain substantial.

The government and local councils, such as the Greater London Authority (GLA), have produced various EV charging infrastructure strategies. While these often include useful data and insights and sensible initiatives my view is they do not sufficiently take on board the need to plan for rapid growth in the market.

Key questions are what type of charging infrastructure is needed, where, when and on what scale? The answer is informed by the characteristics of the market.

The Ideal Location for People to Charge their Cars is Usually at Home or Work

Unlike petrol filling stations people can charge their vehicles anywhere there is a suitable electricity power supply. They also do not need to be with their cars while charging. This greater flexibility has fundamental implications. Our analysis concluded that the key variables relevant to assessment of public charge point demand are:

• Dwell time and speed of charging
• Cost of charging
• Availability, convenience and consistency of information and processes for charging
• Relationship to where cars spend most of their non-use time, i.e. at the owners home or place of work, and the charging opportunities at these locations.

From a EV owners perspective the ideal location is where they leave their car for an extended period of time anyway, and where electricity prices are low. So this usually means at home if they are able to connect to their domestic electricity supply and slow-charge overnight. It can also mean at work, particularly where there is parking at drivers' place of work and ideally where employers offer free/low cost charging.

Characteristics Affecting Scale of the Charging Market

Our conclusion from our work is that the scale, nature and location of markets for public EV charging will depend on characteristics including:

• EV car ownership rates (+ve correlation)
• The availability of off-street parking for consumers at home and work (-ve correlation)
• The price and time/convenience differential between fast, medium and slow charging
• Evolving technology, e.g. including battery capacity
• Regulatory framework, timing of new regulatory requirements and responsiveness of public sector agencies.

Fast Charging is Usually a Last Resort and is a Niche Market

This context has significant implications for the market for charging away from home/work. Charging away from home/work is a second-best option for the consumer, as it is usually more expensive and less convenient. This includes typical fast charging infrastructure.

Reasons why people will nevertheless use fast non-home/work charging infrastructure include:

• They do not have access to off-street parking at home and/or work.
• Slow/medium on-street EV charging in the streets around home is limited.
• They are on longer trips/away from home/work and require to charge, for example at motorway services and/or at hotels.

The consequence is that the main opportunities for fast and away from home charging markets will be in situations where:

• EV car ownership is growing
• The availability of home driveways/home off-street parking is limited (e.g. in higher density inner city areas)
• The availability of parking and charging at places of work are limited (e.g. in city centre offices)
• In locations typically associated with longer trips and trips away from home and work, including the trunk road network and holiday/longer-stay destinations.

Another key dimension for fast EV charging markets in particular is that it needs to be in locations with spare electricity/grid capacity and/or on-site/near-site generation and storage solutions (batteries etc) for private wire/peak demand management solutions.

The outcome of our analysis is that key fast and medium speed charging market opportunities include:

• Motorway service stations (together with an enhanced service and food and beverage offer associated with a longer dwell time)
• Parking locations in city centres, including municipal car parks, private car parks, shopping centres and supermarkets
• Suburban transport hubs, park & ride and out-of-town retail and visitor attraction locations
• Higher-density urban residential and mixed-use development.

The Main Market: Local Medium/Slow Charing Infrastructure

Given drivers’ first choice will be to charge at home or work, we anticipate that medium/slow charging will be the largest market in terms of volume of chargers as it is most efficient and cost-effective. Medium/slow speed charging market opportunities are greatest in locations like:

• Residential streets with limited off-street parking. Solutions include lamp-post charging points and, if proved to be viable and practical, ducted charging channels across public pavements to individual properties. (This is being piloted by Oxford City Council https://www.oxford.gov.uk/electric-vehicles/gul-e-project-no-driveway-no-problem)
• Industrial estates and business parks. Industrial estates in particular capture markets for both vans and small lorries as well as industrial workers, who will tend to drive to work and will tend to have less options for charging at home.
• Urban extensions
• Hotels, particularly larger ones in more remote locations.

These markets are currently receiving less attention than the fast charging market, though interest is growing. Growth in provision for these markets is critical to prevent the UK EV market stalling because of lack of charging infrastructure.

Challenges and Issues

The current market is not scaling up quickly enough and is facing a number of challenges. These include:

• The need for local authorities to substantially step-up commissioning and provision of local charging infrastructure.
• The need to change the service delivery model for low/medium speed charging so there are appropriate incentives to maintain and ensure the reliability of this infrastructure.
• The need for more consistency, homogeneity and transparency in charging infrastructure services, e.g. including pricing and standardised sign-in processes.
• The need to explore and role-out more innovative solutions, including for example pavement duct charging channels.
• The need to expand grid and low carbon energy capacity, including making provision for local demand.
• The need for more sophisticated models and estimation of demand hot-spots. High EV ownership is not necessarily an indication of high demand for public EV charging as wealthier people will tend to purchase EVs and will tend to have private drives and the option to charge at home. More detailed market analysis is needed to anticipate where emerging hot-spots are going to be. (We’ve been working on a range of data sets, correlations and models to estimate this demand).
• Issues over equity. Wealthier people will tend to have better access to lower cost charging at home (including lower VAT rates for home electricity) than less well-off people. (It’s also possible availability of private drives may in time enhance these property values).

If these are not addressed the risk is people will stop buying EVs because it is too inconvenient, expensive and unreliable to charge. We’re keen to pool knowledge and insights and work across the industry to help find solutions and ensure the UK has the infrastructure that is needed.