Urban Exodus During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Closer Look
Consumer Data Research Centre
Promoting the use of consumer data and research to provide insight into societal and economic challenges (ESRC funded)
The COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably transformed the way we live, work, and move. One of the most debated topics during this period has been the potential shift in population movement from urban to rural areas. But how much of this is based on empirical evidence, and what does the data actually reveal?
A recent study explores the patterns of human mobility within Britain during the pandemic, using a dataset of 21 million observations from Meta-Facebook users. This extensive data covers an 18-month period from March 2020 to August 2021. Gridded resident population counts from the Neighbourhood Trajectories in Great Britain 1971-2011 dataset from the Consumer Data Research Centre are also used to analyse population movement across the rural-urban continuum.?
Key research findings:
Urban exodus? There was indeed a noticeable decline in population movement during periods of strict COVID-19 measures. The most densely populated areas reported the most significant reductions, up to a 60% decline from pre-pandemic levels. During these times, there was a higher-than-average mobility from densely populated areas to less dense regions of up to 80% of pre-pandemic levels. This supports the idea of the donut effect, a large-scale movement away from big cities to suburban areas. However, these trends were temporary. As restrictions eased, mobility patterns began reverting to pre-pandemic levels.
Temporary shifts: The research indicates that while the pandemic did cause temporary changes in population movement patterns in Britain, it hasn't drastically altered the prevalent structures in the national pattern of population movement. By 2021, internal population movements were at a level between pre-pandemic and early pandemic phases.
Why is this important?
The implications of such findings are significant for both society and the economy. Understanding these mobility patterns can guide urban planning, policymaking, and infrastructure development, like the improvement of broadband in rural areas to support hybrid working. For businesses, it can influence decisions related to location, marketing, and service offerings.
Economic implications: The temporary nature of the urban exodus means cities will likely remain as economic hubs.?
Infrastructure and urban planning: While there was a temporary move to less dense areas, cities need to continue improving infrastructure, housing, and amenities to cater to their populations.
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The data used enabled a granular insight into mobility patterns during the pandemic. The narrative of a massive urban exodus during the COVID-19 pandemic does hold some truth, but it's essential to understand its temporary nature. Cities remain vital for economic and social reasons, and while the pandemic has introduced new dynamics, the foundational structures of population movement remain largely intact.
Publication: Rowe, F., Calafiore, A., Arribas‐Bel, D., Samardzhiev, K., & Fleischmann, M. (2023). Urban exodus? Understanding human mobility in Britain during the COVID‐19 pandemic using Meta‐Facebook data.?Population, Space and Place,?29(1), e2637. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2637
CDRC Data: Neighbourhood Trajectories in Great Britain 1971-2011 - https://data.cdrc.ac.uk/dataset/neighbourhood-trajectories-great-britain-1971-2011?
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