UPDATES on COVID-19: Predictions for, the World and USA on June 21, 2020
Without much introduction, as in my earlier articles let me just mention that both the World and the US are approaching the second cycle of COVID-19, as both the NYT and the JHU data indicate. In this situation, making predictions when the pandemic might phase out would be extremely difficult to provide as the environment has significantly changed since February 2020. The most vulnerable and unlucky part of the world population has already died. This is sad, but it is a reality. Now a new echelon is fighting COVID-19
The number of new cases is still growing and overpassing the number who has recovered. Brazil, India, Mexico, and some other countries are still in the first cycle phase, whereas some countries like Australia, Croatia, Austria, and more are entering the second cycle. US is on an edge: some states and counties are doing better than others, so in average the situation in US might at first looks optimistic. This should be taken with a grain of salt, as the situation could change quickly, like in Tulsa (Oklahoma), Harris (Texas), San Diego (California), Miami-Dade (Florida) and some other counties. Unfortunately, we must accommodate, both how we do business and how we manage our private interactions under new (ab)normal circumstances. Innovation and leadership are crucial in this situation.
If you have been following my earlier articles, you should be able to read the following charts without much explanation. All conclusions I will leave you to make. If you need some further explanation about the charts, please let me know.
The WORLD
USA States & some Counties: current changes w.r. to the last week average
USA Historical Daily Cases & Deaths for some States
USA Historical Daily Cases & Deaths for some Counties
Disclaimer: The results presented in this article are not intended to drive or to make any decision or action that could result in any loss, including health and financial burden.
As discussed above, the long-term predictions are also based on a single numerical model, assuming that the data can be associated with Richard’s function. All these restrictions may have impact on the results and individual conclusions. Predictions can also change in any direction when new data become available.
The information discussed here is derived from the 3rd party data sets that have not been additionally evaluated by legal authorities. Only CASES and DEATHS data are used (no gender, ethnicity, age etc. have been considered). The data have been extracted from two sources:
a) US States and US Counties data from the New York Times COVID-19 database, which is covered by the license https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/LICENSE.
b) GLOBAL data from COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)
Final notes:
The author is thankful to NYT and JHU as well to Github.com to make data publicly available.
Thanks for reading.
I.P., June 21, 2020