Update to an Unbiased Briefing on Brexit

My previous posts have discussed the implications of staying or leaving the European Union.  This post adds to these previous briefings with updates to the situation:

According to the latest political betting odds cited by PaddyPower, there is currently a 31% implied probability of Brexit – this is unchanged for the last two weeks.  Other polls such as the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) found 54% of BCC members said they would vote to remain in the EU, with support for Remain down seven points from 60% in February.

In polls of nine EU member countries by Ipsos Mori shows that 45% of European voters now want a referendum on EU membership in their countries, suggesting wide-spread disillusionment with the current direction of the trade bloc.  The same polling by Ipsos Mori also revealed that the idea that Brexit might start a 'domino effect' with other countries then leaving the EU is shared by 48% of those polled in Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden.

However, in its most outspoken comments on the issue to date, the Bank of England used its quarterly Inflation Report to warn that Brexit could lead to a loss of jobs, higher prices, and even lead to recession.

Cabinet Minister Michael Gove, the leave campaign's most senior figure, said that Britain will quit Europe's single market if the country votes to leave the EU. Former-Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith escalated his feud with the pro-EU Treasury by claiming that the institution should be broken up and is "the worst thing we have in Britain".

Two former US national security advisers Stephen Hadley and Tom Donilon, warned that the UK's EU referendum is putting at risk the postwar project of a "Europe whole, free and at peace".

The French finance minister, Michel Sapin, said that a British exit from the EU would force European countries into closer co-operation, and might make countries like Sweden and Denmark "come closer to the euro".

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Sch?uble said that the UK won't be able to use a Leave vote to as leverage to negotiate a better deal with the EU, telling fellow finance ministers in Berlin that "In means in and out means out".

Campaigners for Britain to leave the EU have so far raised more money than their rivals in the Remain camp, according to data released by the Electoral Commission.

Chancellor George Osborne confirmed to MPs on the Treasury Committee that "The Bank of England and the Treasury are doing quite a serious amount of contingency planning for the impact on financial stability in the aftermath of a vote to leave [the EU]".

Alan Johnson, the chairman of Labour's Remain campaign, prompted criticism from Eurosceptics after branding Leave campaigners "extremist" and "not rational" for refusing to acknowledge any positive benefits of EU membership.  Further, George Osborne warned that Brexit would lead to "tens of thousands" of potential job losses in the financial services industry, claiming that 285,000 jobs in the sector are linked to business with Europe.