An update on the Smartphone Market

SO... in my last installment, I discussed the ubiquitousness of phones, and the maturity of the market.

We now have a bit more clarity about "What's Next": 5G.

When I wrote about smartphones earlier in the year, I mentioned that it would take clear advances in software and hardware to make everyone move to new phones. Well, there ya go. 5G is the latest advance that will basically obsolete the phone of anyone who cares about data on their mobile device, and especially those who want video. 5G isn't incrementally faster: it's multitudes faster, rivaling hardwired Ethernet speeds. So hopefully, when we are enjoying our cute pets videos while waiting for the bus (or at work...ssh) we shouldn't see those spinning circles any more...

Wikipedia tells us the following: 5G is generally seen as the fifth generation cellular network technology that provides broadband access. The industry association 3GPP defines any system using "5G NR" (5G New Radio) software as "5G", a definition that came into general use by late 2018. Others may reserve the term for systems that meet the requirements of the ITU IMT-2020. 3GPP will submit their 5G NR to the ITU. [1] It follows 2G, 3G and 4G and their respective associated technologies (such as GSM, UMTS, LTE, LTE Advanced Pro, etc.).

That all means that we will have lightning speed data and video on our spartphones:

5G deployments have already begun overseas, and there are 5G "cells" popping up innocuously and quietly all over America. 5G is expected to be deployed all around the US in the next few months, and all smartphones will have the hardware and software built in by next year.

But it's going to take new phone hardware: Qualcomm seems to be the lead player in 5G chips. Some of the players already have 5G built into their phones: Motorola, Samsung, LG and Huawei are leading the charge: See https://www.tomsguide.com/us/5g-phones-list,news-29292.html . Notably missing form this list is, of course, Apple.

If you read my last installment, I discussed how the camera made the Apple xS superior to any other phone for me, and that I was about to buy one: Whew! I am SO glad I didn't, because I'd be very upset. The Xs has no 5G capability. The Qualcomm chip is not in there. the next iPhone, the 11 or XI or whatever they're going to call it, will. But in their usual tight-to-the-vest strategy, they haven't announced anything about it yet, except for its future existence. Apple has no choice. If they expect to continue selling phones, they will have to...and we'll love it. Those of us with less brand loyalty may already be playing with their 5G phones, but those of us loyal to Apple, either by choice or by the fact that they want to stay in the Apple ecosystem (iMessage, iPhoto, iCloud, iMusic), and can't even imagine the havoc that cross-culture management might cause, will be waiting for their iPhone 11, XI or whatever. Thank the smartphone gods that I didn't splurge for that iphone X... Whew.

I've taken some great pics on that little iPhone I have. A few of them are up on the #ubsportslive account on Instagram. Not bad, but def not the quality that the Xs has. And my phone sound quality and other digital usability is still solid. But it's about to become yet another casualty of the progress of consumer electronics. I'll trade it in as soon as the XI or whatever becomes available.

Yes, this 5G advance definitely will lead to a whole phone replacement flurry over the next couple of years, and we will have to cough up the dough for the new ones, but in my eyes, and particularly since I stalled on buying the iPhone X, the move will be very much worthwhile, and worth the extra money. I wonder if Apple will have a swap program out of the X to the XI. Doubtful.

The question now will be, will this be the final advancement that pushes almost every human in the US (and the world) into buying a new phone? And will they then go back to being commoditized? Or will there be another obsoleting event in the future? I can't imagine what that could be...maybe sat phones for everyone? Hmm. But I am willing to bet that there will be one.