Update - The Qatari Files (20/01/20)

Well, we're back. From holiday. In South Africa. Good to be back in Doha actually, even though our prospects are less than certain.

However, this time it is different. The wife and I have decided to draw a line in the sand - every time we have been in Cape Town we have said that we really need to settle down there somewhere (not in Cape Town per se - hate the place), but somewhere up the east or west coast, preferably Gordonsbay or so. And every year the only thing that changes is the expression on our faces.

But no more.

A target date has been set, so we will just have to strategise around that. Barring any major new developments we should be settling in the Cape by middle of the year (yes, yes - the best laid plans of men and mice, etc). We have after all been in the Middle East, on and off, for ten years now.

But back to Doha. Lovely weather we're experiencing as always this time of the year, although way too cold for the locals, judging by the layers of clothes that they are putting on. Wind is quite perky today, with many white horses on the water in the bay. Not a cloud in the sky, except for some cirrus and stratus - no hope for rain from that.

We of course missed all the action in the Gulf when we were in South Africa, what with Iran and the US growling at each other. Can't say I'm too sorry about that (missing it) - had my share of exposure to wars in Namibia and Angola. As always this part of the world remains fraught with instability and tensions - latent and manifest.

To my way of thinking there is very little doubt that the last word, or shot, has not been spoken, or fired, in this fracas. Memories run deep in this part of the world, and animosities are not easily, if ever, forgotten (one has but to consult the Bible on this matter...).

I think Qatar finds itself in a difficult, but perhaps slightly enviable position in this regard. It is the only nation in the region who has relatively friendly relations with Iran, and judging by newspaper reports over the past couple of weeks it seems as if the Amir may indeed be playing an active peacemaking role, whether by default, or by request.

On the other hand it does host Al Udeid air base, the largest US base in the region, which in turn probably does not endear it to the Iranians, but should act as sufficient deterrent for any kind of action against it by any of its neighbours. Speaking of which - if I read the winds correctly there may be a slight thawing of relations there as well, judging at least by the greater rapport on the sporting field.

Whatever the case - considering historical fault lines, animosities, ethnic and religious issues, I confidently forecast that at least not in my lifetime will we see a state of complete 'peace', at least not in the conventional sense. The best scenario that we can hope for is a state of 'benign hostility', characterised by armament 'parity' to some extent. A situation almost akin the MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction, the old, yet still-valid nuclear deterrence strategy of the Cold War, in which any of these states realise that no matter of deep the animosity, hostility can happen only at the cost of almost assured self-destruction.

It ain't nice. But it's real...

Meanwhile, infrastructure developments in this country continue unabated, as typified by a newspaper article again this morning - 'Qatar to build 800 MW solar power plant on 10 sqkm plot.' This will satisfy about 10% of present peak electricity demand.

Was wondering when they were going to exploit all the sun in this part of the world....