UPDATE + Name Swap

Hello everyone,

As of Sunday evening, there's enough happening in the tropics to warrant this brief update.?A short-lived tropical storm off the African coast grabbed the name Hermine, so the disturbance I emailed you about last Tuesday was given the name Ian.?Plugging in Ian for Hermine in my last email is really about the only change needed.??I am most fearful for Florida?(especially for a landfall between Tampa and Crystal River, FL by the early AM on 9/29).??

One other disturbing trend I've noticed is that Ian will likely slow down after the FL landfall and exacerbate the flooding and destruction in northern FL.?The remnants of Ian will then move up the eastern coast with diminished winds, but still with plenty of tropical moisture to continue the flooding threat into next weekend.?In this particular scenario, I believe the European model is handling Ian the best and I've attached a forecast for 5 AM EDT on 9/29/22.?As always, just let me know if you have any specific questions or forecast needs.?Thanks!

Ben