UPCOMING WEEK'S STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: TECHNICAL VIEW

The Indian stock markets continued their bullish trend for the seventh consecutive week, although the gains were flat. The key benchmark indices closed with gains in three out of four weekly trading sessions (markets were closed on Wednesday). The Sensex managed a modest gain of 85.31 points (0.11%) to close the week at 80,604.65. The Nifty increased by 28.75 points (0.12%) to finish the week at 24,530.9. While the headline numbers suggest minimal movement, this week saw pockets of volatility across sectors and individual stocks. IT stocks led the rally, fueled by robust performance in the June quarter (Q1FY25) and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the six-week rally for mid- and small-cap stocks came to an end. The Nifty Midcap 100 index fell by 2.21%, while the Nifty Small Cap 100 index declined by 2.8%.

Friday was a volatile session for the markets. Despite the Nifty and Sensex touching the record highs of 24,854 and 81,587 respectively, both the indices ended their four-day winning streak as investors took partial profits ahead of the budget announcement set for Tuesday next week. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks suffered, with Nifty Mid-Cap 100 and Small Cap indices closing by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Metal, PSE Realty sectors tumbled, and fear index, India VIX rose by 6.0 % to 14.83 on a weekly basis.

Next week promises to be action-packed with the major budget announcement on Tuesday, 23rd July 2024 and earning reports from fourteen major Nifty 50 companies.

Nifty managed to closed above it’s 10 EMA which will be an important support for the current upside rally at 24,467. If this support is breached, Nifty may approach towards 24,280 /24,000 levels. Ahead of the budget, volatility may further increase.

Traders are advised to maintain light positions ahead of the event and consider making new positions with more clarity after the Budget. Existing short-term trading positions should regard 24,467 as an important support level. However, on the upside if Nifty regains the 24650 level, it could move towards 24850 and 25067 levels.?

FII DII Activity

Throughout the week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their buying frenzy, acquiring equities totaling ?10,945.98 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) sold equities worth ?4,226.29 crore. For the month so far FII has purchased ?21,664.63 crores & DII has bought ?779.09 crores.

DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NIFTY 50 OUTLOOK

OI Concentration July 18 2024 Expiry

Highest CE - 25500CE: 81.57 lacs, 25000CE: 69.58 lacs

Highest PE -? 24000PE: 66.70 lacs, 24400PE: 50.54 lacs

PCR July 25 Expiry: 1.01

Max Pain July 25: 24500

In option chain analysis, notable call & put writing was observed at the 24500 Strike, with an addition of 9.1 lakh in CE open interest and 4.82 Lakhs PE open interest, while the highest concentration of open interest on the call side is at the 25500 strike, with an addition of 6.63 lacs and at 24000 PE Side with a decline of 3.31 Lakhs of Open interest for July 15 expiry is standing at 1.01 which is still under bulls comfortable zone.

Nifty Technical Outlook

On the weekly chart nifty has managed to continue its higher high closing for the past 6-weeks. However, it has formed an indecisive shooting star candlestick formation, indicating profit booking in the last week, On the daily chart nifty has formed a bearish engulfing formation but closed above its 10 EMA 24,467.?

BROAD RANGE NIFTY NEXT WEEK: 24,018 – 25,068

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty July 14 2024 Expiry

OI Concentration July 14 2024 Expiry

Highest CE - 5300CE: 13.59 lacs, 52500 CE: 13.44 lacs

Highest PE-? 52500 PE: 7.67 lacs,?52000 PE: 4.48 lacs

PCR July 24 Expiry -? 0.63 (Near oversold territory)

Max Pain July 24 2024: -52300

In option chain analysis, notable call writing was seen at the 52500 strike, with an addition of 3.83 lacs in open interest. However, on the put side, the highest open interest was observed at the 52,000 strike, with an addition of just 3.6K of open interest. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the July 16 expiry stands at 0.63, indicating oversold territory.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty closed with a spinning top candlestick formation, indicating indecisiveness and continuing its sideways movement?for the last three weeks ?On the daily chart, it closed with bearish harami formation and held its 20 EMA at 52084.

BROAD RANGE NIFTY NEXT WEEK (51657 – 52770)

If Bank Nifty breaks, 51,657 then 51,500 will be an important support level. Conversely, if it surpasses??52,770 then 53,000 will be a significant resistance level.

RESULTS CORNER

Major Nifty 50 results

?