UPCOMING WEEK: STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

Last Friday, Sensex and Nifty rose over 1% due to positive global sentiment. Asian stocks increased as fears of a potential US recession eased and improved inflation data from China boosted investor confidence. The market experienced broad-based buying, with a notable relief rally in the real estate sector following the reintroduction of indexation benefits. In the latter half of Friday’s session, PSU banks showed strength, and the index closed 1.9% higher after the Union Finance Minister introduced a banking law amendment bill in the Lok Sabha, which did not propose any changes to the ownership structure of public sector banks. India VIX dropped by 7.6%, closing at 15.34. Additionally, on Thursday, the RBI kept its policy rate unchanged, though the overall tone was slightly hawkish.

However, on a weekly basis, Nifty fell by 2.6%, closing at 24,367.50. Throughout the week, Nifty attempted to hold its 50 EMA but was unable to break through the key resistance of the 10 EMA, which was positioned at 24,403 on a closing basis.

Looking ahead to the next week based on technical and derivative zone 24245-24535 seems immediate trading range. Breakdown of 24245 will lead benchmark towards 24000 level and above 24535 short covering will accelerate and can lead to 24800/25000 level.

Last Week Indices Performance

FII DII Activity

In the last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellerof equities totalling19139.76 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 20871.01 crore. For the month so far FII have sold 20360.48 crores. & DII have bought +23500.01 crores.

DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NIFTY 50 OUTLOOK

OI Concentration Aug 14 2024 Expiry

Highest CE – 25000 CE:87.32 Lakhs ???????????????? 24400 CE: 36.00 Lacs

Highest PE- 24000PE:40.59 Lacs ,? ?????????????????? 24300PE : 24.39 Lacs

PCR AUG 14 Expiry:? 0.81

Max Pain August 01:24350

In option chain analysis, the highest concentration of open interest on the call side is at the 25000 strike, with an addition of 38.82 lakh and at 24000 PE Side with an addition? of14.70 Lakhs of Open interest for August 14 expiry . PCR is standing at 0.81? which is heading towards oversold zone.

Nifty Technical Outlook

On the weekly chart, Nifty managed to hold its 10 WEMA and ended the week with ahammer candlestick pattern. On the daily chart, Nifty closed slightly below its 10/20 EMA, which was positioned at 24,403. The leading indicator RSI, at 50.83, indicates indecisiveness about the market's direction.

Immediate Range: 24245-24535

Important Support: 24245/24194/24000

Important Resistance: 24535/24850/25000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty July 31, 2024, Expiry

OI Concentration July 31 2024 Expiry

Highest CE –51000CE :18.56Lakhs ??????????????????? 50500 CE : 18.06 Lacs

Highest PE-? 50000PE : 16.96 Lacs ,? ???????????????? 50500PE : 12.25 Lacs

PCR Aug 14Expiry :? 0.88 ( Near oversold territory?? )

Max Pain? Aug 14 ?2024 : 50500

In option chain analysis, substantial call writing was seen at the 51000 strikes, with an addition of 2.13 lacs in open interest. However, on the put side, the highest open interest was observed at the 50,000 strikes, with an addition of just 2.73 Lacs of open interest. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the Aug 14 Expiry ?stands at 0.88, indicating towards oversold territory.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty protected its 10 WEMA placed at 50028and has formed hammer candlestick formation witnessing short covering. On a daily chart its closed below falling 10 EMA showing upside price correction. For the coming week? broad range seems 50120-50827

BROAD RANGE NIFTY NEXT WEEK (50120-50827)

RESULT CORNER

Upcoming Results Next – Nifty F&O (Jul 29-Aug 03, 2024)