UPCOMING WEEK: INDIAN STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

On Friday, the Nifty 50 achieved its longest series of gains, rising for 12 days in a row. This was fuelled by strong domestic investor support and increased optimism about potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Nifty and Sensex reached new all-time highs, both during the day and at the market's close. Strong MSCI inflows helped push the indices to a new high.

Technically, strong bullish momentum was observed on both weekly and daily charts, with the closing prices above all moving averages. Market breadth was positive, with 2,157 stocks advancing and 1,784 declining.

Looking ahead to the coming week, 25,130 will serve as a key support level for the current rally, while resistance is expected at 25,618 and 25,707. The 25,000 mark will be a crucial support zone for trend followers. The Auto and Auto Ancillary sectors will be in focus as OEMs release their monthly sales figures. Additionally, the upcoming IPO of Gala Precision, along with listed competitors like SKF India, Sundaram Fasteners, Rolex Rings, Sterling Tools, Ratanveer Precision, and Harsha Engineering, will attract attention.

From the primary market, there are three upcoming listings next week: Premier Energies Ltd on Tuesday, Ecos Mobility and Hospitality Ltd on Wednesday, and Bazaar Style Retail Ltd on Friday, September 6.

FII DII Activity

Last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth ?9,217.29 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities totaling ?1,198.27 crore. So far this month, FIIs have sold equities worth ?21,368.51 crore, while DIIs have bought equities worth ?48,278.65 crore.

DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NIFTY 50 OUTLOOK

OI Concentration Sep 05 ?Expiry

Highest CE - 26000CE: 66.05 Lakhs ???????????????????????? 25700CE: 43.95 Lacs

Highest PE-? 24200PE: 63.50 Lacs ,? ???????????????????????? 25000PE: 59.86 Lacs

PCR Sep 05 Expiry:? 1.27

Max Pain? Sep 05: 25200

In the option chain analysis, there has been significant put writing at the 25,200 strike, with an increase of 40 lakh in open interest. This level is acting as a strong support for the current rally, indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. On the call side, the highest concentration of open interest is at the 26,000 strike, with an addition of 21 lakh. For the SEP 05 expiry, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.27, suggesting that the market is approaching an overbought zone but remains comfortable for now.

Nifty Technical Outlook?

On the weekly chart, Nifty has managed to continue its higher high closing for the past 4 weeks. It’s the 12th day consecutive higher high closing on the daily chart. Strong bullish momentum is observed in weekly and daily time frames. Closing is above all moving averages. 25130 will act as strong support for the current rally and the resistance is placed at 25618/25707

BROAD RANGE NIFTY NEXT WEEK (25130 – 25618/707)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty Sep 04 2024 Expiry

OI Concentration Sep 04 ?2024 Expiry

Highest CE - 51500CE: 27.27 Lakhs ???????????????????????? 52000 C : 24.99 Lacs

Highest PE-? 51000PE: 21.54 Lacs ,? ???????????????????????? 50800 PE: 14.24 ?Lacs

PCR Sep 04 ?Expiry:? 0.89 ( Near oversold territory)

Max Pain? July 24 2024: 51400

In option chain analysis, highest call writing was seen at the 51500 strike, with an addition of 5.36 lakh in open interest. However on the put side, the highest open interest was observed at the 51,000 strike, with an addition of 1.67 Lakhs of open interest. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the Sep 04 expiry stands at 0.80, indicating towards oversold territory. Broad Range for next week seems to be 50880-51800 with immediate support 51168 & Resistance 51500

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty is steadily moving higher and closed in the green above its 10-week exponential moving average (WEMA). The MACD histogram indicates positive momentum, and the leading indicator is also close to crossing above its average. For bullish trades, the immediate support level to watch is 51,168, with potential targets at 51,530 and 51,800. A breakdown below this support could lead to a decline towards 50,968 or 50,880.

BROAD RANGE NIFTY NEXT WEEK (50880 – 51880)