Upcoming US Constitutional Crisis...?

I am not a fortune-teller, physic or seer like Baba Vanga in the above photo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baba_Vanga). Although I do believe that the role of a futurist is to 'see' clearly. There are many paths to being a see-r of truth. One of the most important is to declutter one's mind of preconceived ideas and beliefs. To have that 'shoshin' or beginner's mind about which the Zen Masters of antiquity spoke. The other is to be open to different ways of knowing. Carl Jung suggested in addition to thinking, we can intuit, sense and feel. He was also very interested in dreams.

Many years ago now, and just a few months in to Obama's first term I had a dream. I had already figured out that he wasn't going to follow through on many of his campaign promises (yes I did believe some of the campaign rhetoric). I somehow KNEW that there was going to be a constitutional crisis in his second term. I also later found out a real clairvoyant, Baba Vanga, had apparently predicted that Obama would be America's last President, but this would obviously be the most extreme outcome! Now I don't normally write about my intuitive inspirations. If I sense I need to research something or speak with someone then I just do it. Then I speak or write about it the topic, if my analysis matches this. In a similar way, many of you probably have inspirations when you are walking, taking a shower or dreaming. But then you go and do the real work, the analysis and the execution.

My dream from years ago and my analysis seem to be converging...

It has been obvious that pressure in societies around the world have been mounting for some time. We were looking at the data around the world: research on wealth disparities, attitude surveys and the public's trust in government/media. From all of this, it seemed obvious that social discord could accelerate. Anecdotally, we also saw how the echo chambers of social media worked.

We predicted the emergence of third parties and non mainstream candidates. Corbyn didn't surprise us. And we forecast for some time that there was a strong likelihood of Brexit. In the US, I predicted the strong possibility of a Trump win over 12 months ago (and at public events) well before the media took his candidacy with any seriousness.

Now we are in the last straight of the most important election in the world. I think that its obvious now that there is a strong chance of some form of constitutional crisis. The energetic build up to this might be strong enough of a reason to think it. But there are many contingencies now:

a). Clinton health scare: as I wrote last week at Dow Theory Letters, it seems obvious to me that she has a serious condition. Some sources suggest she had a brain tumour in 2011. But there is now ample footage of her seizures, coughing episodes and fainting to strongly suggest that something is amiss, especially after her last collapse at the 911 event. Analyses by medical doctors like this, who believes she has Parkinson's disease, are all over the internet :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr1IDQ2V1eM&sns=em

What happens if she pulls out at the 11th hour? A number of journalists have asked this question.'The party would hold a special meeting, with officials getting one vote each. Whoever wins the majority wins the nomination. But the party has no rules about who, exactly, would be up for a vote.'

(https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-sick-campaign-article-1.2788686)

If Sanders is not given the nomination, then what? There is chatter that Biden might be given it. How would the public react?

b). Bullets fly: I even hate writing this. But if you are a serious fact-based scenario planner you have to look at the US track record of Presidential assassinations and assassination attempts. Just read the list on wikipedia, it's pretty shocking if you've not considered how common they are. The last serious attempt was NOT when Reagan took a bullet as you might have thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

What if one of the nominees is shot in the run up to the election? If its at the 11th hour, this poses a real constitutional issue. Would the elections be postponed? Would they hastily find a replacement? How would the public react? There was a Taiwanese President who was accused of faking his own assassination attempt as it helped the voting!

c) Third Party candidates trigger the 12th amendment if no candidate gets the sufficient electoral majority then the 12th Amendment kicks in and the House decides. This is increasingly plausible with the publicity that Jill Stein and Johnson are receiving.

'The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; -- the President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; -- The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. [And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President. --]* This is superseded by section 3 of the 20th amendment.  

20th Amendment Section 3.

'If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.'

I think we can all imagine scenarios where large numbers of the public will be outraged. What if the House gave it to the third party candidate?

d) Electoral fraud: I won't go in to this in too much detail, but never before in a US election have we heard so much about this possibility. A Stanford paper suggests that we already saw irregularities in the primaries against Sanders and in favour of Clinton: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1. But there is a huge amount of details on the internet. I need not suggest that this is actually happening, but merely the fact that it can become an issue merits attention. Trump has clearly warned his supporters about the possibility and undoubtedly many of them are doing their own research. What if independent researchers go out on election day and discover something?

We could create many scenarios here but my general point is that there are many ingredients for a crisis lined up.

Constitutionally if something goes afoul, elected officials, policymakers, the police and yes even the military have made an oath to the Constitution not to the Queen (As in my country) or the government of the day. The LA Times earlier in the year was quite explicit about what happens if a leader or the government breaks the constitution. In their case, they believed that Trump is a risk.

"Try to imagine, then, a situation in which Trump commanded our military to do something stupid, illegal or irrational. Something so dangerous that it put the lives of Americans and the security of the country at stake. Faced with opposition from his military brass, Trump would perhaps reconsider and back down. But what if he didn’t?

In that case, our military men and women, who swear to uphold the Constitution and a civilian chain of command, would be forced to choose between obeying the law and serving the wishes of someone who has explicitly expressed his utter lack of respect for it.

They might well choose the former."

[https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kirchick-trump-coup-20160719-snap-story.html]

What is its Obama that doesn't follow the rules? Or Clinton? Or the House? Or the public stages a revolt because there is a perception that the election was rigged?

I stopped reading much of the mainstream media now, although there are still some good individual writers. I prefer to read the history books, do my own research and talk to informed individuals. The history books are full of events at which journalists might scoff.

I won't tell you how to vote, besides I am not even American. But I think we are at a very heightened risk of something happening in this election. This would have implications for national security, societies, and financial markets all around the world.

The only advice I will give you is to breath, keep calm and to do your best not to dehumanise other human beings just because they have different political views than your own. You never know, they might be right. Or you might both be wrong! I find it fascinating that most people I meet agree on many core values, like the Golden Rule. David Korten in the 'Great Turning" remarkably highlights a list of things that 70-80%+ about which Americans agree. It makes amazing reading and I intend to write a follow up post on it.

This is a time for love, tolerance and well-considered action.

Benjamin J Butler is an English Futurist and Founder of the Emerging Future Institute. He writes the weekly International Investor Column at Dow Theory Letters and consults for financial institutions, companies, sovereign wealth funds and individuals who seek a unique independent perspective on the world.