Upcoming Solar Eclipse to Impact Energy Production, AESO Market Quick Look, and more.

Grid Stability During Solar Eclipses: Lessons Learned from Texas

Solar eclipses, as fascinating as they are, present unique challenges for power grids, especially in regions that heavily rely on solar power like the state of Texas. The upcoming solar eclipse on April 8th brings up an important question:

how can we ensure the stability of the power grid when one of the primary sources of energy is temporarily blocked?

ERCOT , which provides solar service to 90% of the state, says the event will affect solar production in Texas between 12:10 p.m. and 3:10 p.m. CDT while the eclipse passes over the state from the southwest to the northeast.

Understanding the Implications

Solar power is an important asset to maintain grid reliability and stability. As of 2023, it accounted for roughly 3.9% of U.S. energy generation and an even higher 6% in Texas. Blessed with abundant sunshine, Texas has emerged as the second-largest solar power producer in the country, surpassed only by California.

However, the very source of this solar potency becomes a liability during solar eclipses. An eclipse causes a temporary but substantial reduction in solar irradiance as the moon blocks the sun's light. During the eclipse, areas situated under the path of totality could witness up to a 16% loss in daily solar energy.

Though brief, this dramatic fluctuation in power generation could potentially destabilize the power grid.

Preparation is Key: Learning from Past Experiences

To mitigate the impact of this solar challenge, ERCOT is employing advanced forecasting models. These models help anticipate the potential impact on solar generation, allowing grid operators to respond proactively rather than reactively. It's worth noting that unlike California, which urged residents to curtail power usage during the 2017 eclipse, ERCOT has not issued similar calls. This confidence is not unfounded but is derived from meticulous planning and the proven resilience of the Texas grid. Such preparation includes measures like lining up standby power sources, and reserves and running simulations to ensure grid stability.

Sign up for a free trial of Nrgstream to monitor the price and load forecast in ERCOT - to ensure you are unaffected by the eclipse.

Maintaining grid reliability during an eclipse isn't solely ERCOT 's responsibility. It requires a collective effort, involving asset managers, energy traders, and other grid operators. Together, these stakeholders aim to balance the grid, strategically taking advantage of volatile energy prices. This approach benefits both the grid's stability and overall economic efficiency. The ultimate goal is not merely to endure the eclipse's impact, but to come out unaffected, ensuring uninterrupted power supply and continued lighting.

While Texas might be in the direct line of fire, given its dependence on solar power, other regions are not impervious to the eclipse's effects. The East Coast, for instance, despite being less reliant on solar energy, could still bear significant repercussions, particularly those with rooftop solar panels. The New York Independent System Operator ( NYISO ), which manages New York's power grid, projects a 10.9% decrease in solar generation from these panels during the eclipse. Therefore, the learnings from Texas's preparations are not just relevant locally. They provide a practical plan that other regions can use to prepare for and manage the impact of solar eclipses on their power grids.

An Interesting Side Effect: A Drop in Temperature

A solar eclipse's intriguing features include a temporary drop in temperature. While this doesn't greatly affect our comfort or the grid's functionality, it reminds us of the eclipse's impact on our environment and energy systems.

As the April 8 solar eclipse approaches, detailed planning and coordination are ongoing. This guarantees our daily needs are met without sacrificing our fascination with the cosmos. Thanks to modern forecasting methods, meticulous preparation, and teamwork, maintaining the power grid's reliability during the eclipse is a realistic expectation.

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AESO Quick Look

Recap of Friday, March 22nd through Sunday, March 24th

On Friday, average prices were relatively low at 60.68 $/MWh, with off-peak and on-peak hours priced at 55.64 $/MWh and 70.78 $/MWh, respectively. Demand was high due to lower than average temperatures, peaking just above 10,890 MW at midday. Wind generation remained under 500 MW for most of the day, increasing to over 1,000 MW at night. Solar generation peaked at over 1,100 MW between 12 p.m. and 2 p.m., but dropped after 8 p.m. due to sunny weather in southern Alberta. Gas generator Calgary Energy Center (CAL1) resumed operations at 12:03 p.m., providing over 300 MW at low prices. Despite increased imports, prices rose above 100 $/MWh for several morning hours due to high demand and low renewable generation.

On both Saturday and Sunday, prices remained low with daily averages of 38.83 $/MWh and 34.22 $/MWh, respectively. Demand was high due to below-average temperatures, peaking at just over 10,550 MW on Saturday morning and just above 10,600 MW on Sunday evening. Wind generation was consistently high, while solar generation in southern Alberta peaked in the early afternoon before dropping in the evening. Despite increased exports and lower-than-expected gas generation, prices remained low due to high renewable generation and moderate demand.

Expectations for Monday, March 25th

Today's temperatures are expected to be similar to those of Sunday, with demand predicted to be higher. Wind generation is projected to stay above 2,000 MW for most of the day, dipping below 1,600 MW for several nighttime hours. Solar generation is expected to surpass 1,100 MW between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., dropping after 8 p.m. due to sunny conditions in southern Alberta. The gas generator Sheerness #1 (SH1) went offline at 00:38 a.m., reducing availability by over 300 MW. With high renewable generation, exports are anticipated to exceed 400 MW for most of the day. As a result, prices are expected to remain relatively low for the majority of the day.

The Unseen Challenges of a Green Energy Transition

The move towards a green energy future, particularly in New England, is ambitious and commendable. States like Massachusetts and Connecticut are leading the charge, advocating for a significant shift from fossil fuel-fired power infrastructure to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. This transition is backed by the introduction of large-scale battery systems to mitigate the inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources.

However, the Independent System Operator-New England ISO-NE raises a critical concern that could potentially undermine these efforts: the performance of battery storage systems in cold weather. ISO-NE's 2050 Transmission Study and its Regional Electricity Outlook highlight a significant challenge. Approximately 45% of ISO-NE’s in-progress transmission projects are based on battery systems. Yet, there's an alarming issue: these batteries may struggle to recharge during the winter months. This concern isn't trivial; it points to a potential gap in supply during periods of peak demand, exacerbated by cold weather and low production from wind and solar resources. The irony is stark—when batteries are needed the most, they might be the least available.

Addressing this flaw isn't just a technical challenge; it's a financial one, with ISO-NE projecting about $1 billion annually in transmission expenses up to 2050. This substantial investment underscores the high stakes of ensuring grid reliability amidst a green transition. It's a potent reminder that transitioning to renewable energy is not merely about adopting new energy sources but also about revamping the underlying infrastructure to support these changes.

By 2040, the envisioned energy landscape in New England is dramatically different: a significant reduction in reliance on natural gas, from 45% to about 12%, and a corresponding surge in power generation from solar and wind, from 11% to 56%. This shift represents a radical transformation in how the region generates and consumes electricity, bringing to the fore the crucial role of batteries in maintaining grid stability.

The potential for widespread battery failure in cold conditions raises alarming questions about grid reliability and the risk of supply shortfalls during harsh New England winters. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has already flagged elevated blackout risks in the event of colder-than-usual conditions. This concern is echoed by Mark Christie, a commissioner for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), who warned Congress about the dire consequences of prematurely phasing out fossil fuel infrastructure.

The path to a green and sustainable future is complex. The concerns raised by ISO-NE serve as a crucial call to action, urging a balanced, thoughtful, and forward-looking approach to the energy transition. It's a call for innovation, resilience, and a reimagining of our energy infrastructure to ensure that the power grid remains reliable in all weather conditions.

At Arcus Power Corp , we believe in democratizing energy intelligence to prosumers and large power users to aid in significant energy cost savings and help maintain grid stability during high price events and weather anomalies.

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