UP election forecast Update and impact on 2019

Everyday multiple people ask me who is going to win UP. I find it incredulous because we so called 'specialists' have been doing a tardy job of forecasting election results right over the last 24 months. Whether it is Brexit or Trump or Bihar, many of us (including me) got it wrong. While many of us got the last assembly elections right, the overall averages adds upto about 50%, that is no different from the toss of a coin.

That said, there are a few trends to note-

a. Voter turnout has increased across all phases. This is definitely higher than 2014 and also higher than 2012. This is not good for the SP-INC combine. Why? Their voting segments were already recording high turnouts, so it is likely that other voting segments became more active in this election

b. The BJP had been fairly consistent in their attack on Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi combine. The SP-INC campaigning has not been consistent across all phases. In Bihar, it was the reverse. While one could claim this is customized campaigning, I am not fully convinced because the target groups for additional votes are the same across all phases (women and youth).

c. The BJP started hinting about religion closer to the third phase along with attacks on AK-RG combine. This was similar to the final two phases of the Bihar campaign. Given (a) and (b) above, unclear why BJP changed tack

d. One right wing pollster who said BJP will lose Bihar suggests the BJP is ahead in UP. He had forecast a defeat for BJP in Bihar and not a wipe out. Given his past record, he overstates BJP results marginally, his data seems to suggest a hung assembly (my read of his results). It is also possible, he is completely accurate in his estimates and BJP will win UP.

e. The so called ground reports in UP will mostly be wrong eventually. That was the case in Bihar and Delhi as well. People rely on too few sources to come to a conclusion. That said, the odds are that someone will get the election right, we just don't know who.

I think the complex nature of the election in UP this time makes it extremely difficult to forecast accurately. It is likely (from past track record) that MOST of the exit polls will get it wrong. It is also likely that the one or more of most successful of the exit pollsters will also get the exit polls wrong this time. I am still interested in the exit polls to understand why people made their choices and what their top concerns were. Beyond that, they are unlikely to be reliable.

My recommendation: Wait for counting day and enjoy the journey on that day. My own repeated study of performance of State Governments suggest that no party appears to be doing a significantly better job than the other on matters of governance. It appears that a whole host of cultural factors appear to be playing a larger role. Governance too is important but parties are doing different things right to get almost similar results. Someone is doing a great job building roads and railways (visible) while someone else is creating an army of educated and talented young people (invisible). At the end both help a community. Our wish of course is that one party does both. UP has serious structural issues that will take years to resolve and none of the parties has a vision to fix them over the next 10 years. Time will finally decide UP's fate.

Impact on 2019

There are a variety of theories on the impact of UP election on 2019. The assumption is that whoever does well in the election would have greater confidence in 2019. However, no such evidence exists from past elections in Uttar Pradesh. The electorate of the Poor State are notoriously volatile in their quest for a better life and will always vote for what they see as a better proposition in 2019.

The impact of results of the UP election on 2019 will probably be much lower than the likely emergence of El Nino later this year and probably next year. It is unclear if monsoon 2018 will be impacted but there are odds of negative impact during the second part of the monsoon 2018. Given past trends, it is likely that monsoon 2019 will be impacted too. That said, weather reports are notoriously unreliable too, so please read that with a pinch of salt for now.

In my view, the three big metrics to track over the next 24 months are - Inflation, Job creation and Income growth. These in turn are related to a whole host of domestic (Manufacturing recovery, Exports), International (Trade, Oil prices, Investments) and weather (Monsoon) factors. Steady performance on those metrics will enable Modi win 2019 comfortably. Any deterioration on those metrics will create a huge swing in 2019 and with stronger alliances will give the opposition a good chance to form the Government or cause enough trouble for Modi-2 Government.