Unworkable offices
Alan Patterson FRICS
Real Estate Economist and Strategic Investment Advisor at VARE Consulting Ltd
Alan Patterson, VARE Consulting Ltd
As social/business restrictions are gradually eased throughout most (but not all) of the world, there is one restriction that is likely to remain in place until at least a vaccine is available –the social distancing rule. The size of this varies from country to country but, in the UK, it is 2 metres. To some extent this is an arbitrary number, but is based on how far droplets from one’s breath may carry in the air and, therefore, potentially be breathed in by another person. The assumption is, of course, that this is still air; even a gentle breeze would carry the droplets further. In addition, it is most effective as a measure out-of-doors, as internally, droplets will fall on nearby surfaces, creating a secondary touching hazard. The distances that the droplets carry have been demonstrated to be also greater if the infected person coughs or sneezes.
As businesses are gradually allowed to re-open, we should expect office staff working less from home and more from offices. Large modern offices, however, are typically equipped with HVAC (air conditioning) which involves processing and recirculating of air – otherwise they would be too expensive to run. Typically, a person working in that environment would expect to be breathing in 10% of fresh air and 90% exhaled by others. It is possible to have filters to remove (most of) bacteria and viruses but the required HEPA filters are expensive and not typically part of most installations and, of those that do, many are probably not properly maintained. In addition, these large buildings will have lifts which act as pumps, rapidly moving air from one floor to the next.
The risks to the workers are obvious. In the week before an infected person’s symptoms become apparent, the exhaled breath may reach many parts of the building courtesy of the forced air systems. And there is also a probability that there is more than one infected person at a time, reinforcing the effect.
Property and fund managers need to be dealing with this urgently before the restrictions are eased. While most large businesses have crisis management contingency plans, meeting certified requirements, this may not be true of the property industry. Risks to occupants of multi-occupied buildings need to be assessed and an action plan generated. The air conditioning may need to be modified or partially turned off, relying on opening windows if that is possible. Lift programming may need to be changed and it may be necessary to build safety lobbies around the lift doors. Ventilation may need to be installed in stairways between floors, which would otherwise be effectively sealed for fore resistance.
Do property/fund managers have a crisis committee and a crisis manager who are already considering and actioning the requirements? What will become best practice? There is not much time to work these out. Purchasers of such assets will also need reassurance that they are not buying a short-term liability.
Strategic Land Regional Director - London & South East Division
4 年Interesting insight Alan. On this basis it seems offices will struggle to open fully if they rely on mechanical ventilation and landlords can not afford to revamp their equipment? Are landlords at risk of tenants refusing to pay rents if they don’t upgrade? I think we could see offices opening but with only skeleton staff and those needing to be in for essential meetings with others working at home for the foreseeable. This could allow for a rotation of staff in offices to reduce viral load - a bit like how teachers planned for covering key worker schooling. This would differ depending on the risk profile of office workers of course and web based tools would continue to be used for meetings etc. I think office floor plates are go to get smaller as a result of all this. And where does co-working go?