The Unwilling Coalition of the the Willing?

Is Uganda the unwilling member of the coalition of the willing or is President Magufuli simply more willing than Museveni focus on petroleum before this last term? Has Uganda made a decision on the evacuation of its 6 bn barrels of crude using the "cheapest route" in either route through Lamu/Mombasa or Tanga? Did President Kenyatta make any headway in Europe or did his brother spoil party? One thing for sure is that Total's $4 Bn Tanga crude pipeline package is still the only financial backed offer for an East African crude Pipeline if we are looking at a 2021 evacuation.

There is an announcement awaited at the NCIP meeting taking place in Kigali to be attended by the perceived willing members of a coalition of East African states, whose membership seems to be changing, or some say. " Tanzania is not a member of the Northern Corridor Integration Projects summit (NCIP) hence the project cannot take the Tanga route"..an official is quoted as saying. There are observers who feel that uncertainties in Kenyan political landscape are not conducive to a quick decision on the crude pipeline. Uganda may be unwilling to wait.

While the crude pipeline could recalibrate the willingness of the coalition. EAC integration-willingness "must be credited to the Presidents of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda – Uhuru Kenyatta, Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni – who in June 2013 upped the ante by forming what has come to be known as the “coalition of the willing”. The coalition, whose official name is the Tripartite Initiative for Fast Tracking the East African Integration, excluded Tanzania and Burundi, seen by their partners as laggards in the integration drive, and held three summits in 2013... Africapractice EAC Integration state of play 2014.

The two big brothers in the Kenyan political reality play took to Europe with scene one mixed crude pipeline talks, followed by the post-ICC samba dance and finally the pace setting beat in Afraha Stadium. The political challenges of devolution and the battle for Turkana County in the 2017 general election and the development of South Lokichar basin are making regional and international partners rethink their willingness to commit. 

The Ugandan dilemma: The statement by the Kenya officials that it will go it alone irrespective of the success of the negotiations with Uganda, the between the lines rebuke by the press of Kenya officials seem "not prepared for the negotiations", the hard ball being played by the Uganda all point to either a decisions has already been made on the Tanga Route and Uganda cannot commit to Kenya unless an option is on the table. The Or, is that Uganda supports and is an unwilling member of the coalition of the willing, at least in this particular project. 

Is Uganda an unwilling CoW member? Total has clearly indicated that they don't think even if Kenya were to surmount its security issues, that Lamu Port will be ready on time by a 2018. Total's risks analysis has this far dominated many international investors, you would say otherwise Kenya should have another pipeline investor. The comparable pipeline cost differences are clearly in favour of Kenya. But the unwillingness of Uganda is what is most interesting twist to this equation. 

 Post-ICC invincible 2017 Rhetoric: Uganda seems to have stood in the west and swallowed the other side of the tiff between the two Kenya political brothers. When the opposition brother surfaced in a French Radio on just about the other week after a contigent led by his President was in Paris, probably looking for a crude pipeline suitor? The happenings at Afraha Stadium clearly showed that results from the Paris wasn't  worth writing home. The Afraha beat was high enough to further prick the willingness of the regional partners in CoW.

What we end up with is a scene that could easily degenerate to David Ndii's 'devolution  cracking' Prophesy? Governors will want to pull their weight to ensure that "perception of devolved corruption" is not politically used against devolution. Does these scenes contribute to President Museveni belief that his unwillingness should be specific to crude pipeline? Can he justify it in terms of strengthening the EAC by roping in a Magufuli led Tanzania? Does unilaterally roping in Tanzania rubbish the CoW but contribute to the East African Integration? Tanzania will walk away a beneficiary of the "collateral benefits" of a fall-out in the less known "CoW" for the more established EAC. The Tanga option may actually be the option of the moment unless Kenyan political risk is seen to be manageable by the twin brothers.

Turkana County: strategic theatre for 2017 sibling rivalry;

After Nairobi, Turkana County may be the next engine of development revenue for Kenya as it transitions AID to TRADE. As the largest economy in East Africa, LAPSSET like SGR plays a critical role in not only billing Kenya's regional "economic might'. Yet, it has perennially failed to attract investors.  The crude pipeline seemed the lifeline of this second regional corridor. Turkana County is a strategic locations-wise for any petroleum producing Kenyan President in a petroleum regional economic take-off that may include the new kid on the block South Sudan. The President is said to have given Turkana County a wide berth for the last few years of his term. The political reading of this is seen partly as due to county-internal competitive political advisory the President has received.   The current governor has done a sterling job by many devolution standards, and especially given where county is coming from, but again like at the national level, no jubilee aspirant report cards is very different.

 The expected battle for Turkana between the two big brother coalitions for the county with commercial deposits makes most large scale investors of petroleum projects like the crude pipeline take delay-decisions. This is the time cost Uganda's president may be unwilling to wait for. Who would blame him, given the encroaching political competition. But what about reports that Uganda is also thinking of killing LAPSET by developing pipeline  alternative line for South Sudan crude? Then coalition of the willing becomes a coalition Kenya wouldn't be a member. 

The possibility of two East Africa pipelines instead of one are very real. The delay associated with The Community Land bill 2015, The Petroleum Production bills and all the associated bills, the twists associated with conservancies, the raising rhetoric from local political leaders and community all contribute to a wider perception that the development plan Tullow submitted to the national government may not turn into shovels and trucks any time soon. This could easily be achieved in the politically brittle strategic county.  

Is Kenya the "unwilling" member of the "coalition of the Willing" there are those who think Kenya is actually the unwilling member of the coalition here. The region is full of people who don't believe in Kenya's political-economy way of things. Add this to the regional symbiotic nature the community and you realise that the fear of 2017, has global repercussions that will make Kenya loose critical time and investments.

These are personal views and due diligence is advised on any references made, for any purposes whatsoever.