Unstructured risk management is the art of a winner's intuitive decision-making

Risk management is often painted as a science—structured, systematic, and guided by frameworks like ISO 31000:2018. It’s the kind of risk management that boards love to see, with neat reports, risk matrices, and mitigation plans. But in the real world, when a crisis strikes, do you reach for a policy manual—or do you rely on your instincts?

?Let’s be clear: Your business cannot survive on structured risk management alone.

?You need both. A structured approach gives you control, but an unstructured approach gives you agility. It’s the difference between a chess grandmaster who follows strategy and a street fighter who adapts in the moment.

Today, we focus on unstructured risk management—the kind no framework teaches. The kind that separates business survivors from business casualties.?

What is unstructured risk management?

Unstructured risk management is risk-taking without a predefined system. It’s based on:?

a)??? Gut instinct – The subconscious ability to detect threats before they appear.

b)??? Situational awareness – Seeing patterns, opportunities, and dangers that others miss.

c)???? Experience-driven decisions – The ability to act fast without waiting for endless analysis.

d)??? Business intuition – Knowing when to pivot, when to cut losses, and when to double down.

In short, it’s the real-life risk management that leaders rely on when the textbook approach isn’t enough.

The CEO who outsmarted a crisis

In 2022, a logistics company faced a sudden border shutdown due to a geopolitical dispute. Their risk register never predicted it. Their structured response plan? Completely useless.

While competitors waited for government resolutions, their CEO made a gut decision—he took a gut risk option, rerouted shipments through an unconventional trade route, partnering with smaller regional carriers. It wasn’t in the company’s formal risk framework, but it worked perfectly. The company fulfilled their supply obligations, got distributors' loyalty, and gained market share while competitors stalled.

That’s unstructured risk management in action.

How to develop your unstructured risk instincts

You don’t need to be reckless to master unstructured risk. You need to train your ability to:

a)???? Read the environment. Spot shifts in customer behaviour, competitor moves, and emerging threats before they become headlines.

b)??? Move fast. Make fast, informed decisions. Perfection is the enemy of progress. Leaders who wait for a perfect risk plan miss the window of opportunity.

c)???? Build risk agility. Structured risk management prepares you, but unstructured risk management saves you when the unexpected happens.

The future belongs to risk masters?

Structured risk management is your seatbelt—it protects you.

Unstructured risk management is your steering wheel—it helps you navigate surprises.

You need both. But today’s fast-changing world rewards those who can think on their feet, act fast, and adapt instinctively.

Are you ready to master the unstructured side of risk? Are you interested in the unstructured risk management exercise, I use with Boards and Executives to improve their decision-making during uncertainty? Alternatively, you can get a free e-book, How to Risk Smart & Innovate Fast playbook; a small book with 50 plays to transform how you manage risk. Comment your preference, and then send me your email in the inbox, I will send you once I get more than 50 comments.

I remain, Mr Strategy