Unpacking Winnipeg’s 2024 Infrastructure Shocks – Did the Predictions Hold Up?

Two weeks ago, I published a case-study about forecasting the risk associated with nearly simultaneous critical infrastructure failures, in Winnipeg, Manitoba: an energy-pipeline failure and a sewage-water system failure.

So, what happened? Did a national-level Critical Infrastructure Interdependency (CII) risk model have merit when applied a lower, provincial level?

TL;DR: Winnipeg is managing the situation well. The CII analysis projected that four critical infrastructure sectors would experience four or more cascading shocks and elevated risks. It appears to have been > 75% accurate. Call it a B+.

1. Government and Safety – Projected risk: High (7/7): High impact observed, due to public accountability and ownership of infrastructure.
2. Food – Projected risk: High (6/7): High impact observed. Heightened readiness and contingency planning.
3. Health – Projected risk: Medium (5/7): Low or delayed impacts observed, potential for near-term impacts remain (discussion follows).
4. Transportation – Projected risk: Medium (4/7): Medium impact observed, due to infrastructure stress and capacity-substitution limits.

Overall, Winnipeg is managing well despite the risks and actual (versus potential) impacts, to date.

It's still too early to fully grasp the outcomes of these critical infrastructure (CI) shocks, but the short-term and most visible effects have become apparent.

Government and Safety: High risk was projected and observed. This aligns with expectations, as the provincial and municipal governments act as regulators, owners/operators of water infrastructure, and all-hazards emergency managers. The Manitoba government has coordinated several mitigation efforts, including:

• An emergency sewage bypass in south Winnipeg.
• Emergency upgrades to a fuel delivery terminal, and coordinating truck and rail substitutes for pipeline capacity.

The initial water restrictions in South Winnipeg have been lifted thanks to a successful sewage bypass, but the permanent solution won't be completed until 2025. This delay leaves room for more potential failures in a temporary fix. (CBC News )

On April 1, Winnipeg added wastewater alerts to its emergency notification system (City of Winnipeg ). Additionally, claims have been made to compensate downstream communities at $4 per liter for the 224 million liters spilled, totalling over $900 Million; this imposes significant liability risks on the municipal government, which has a total annual budget in 2024 of ~$2.5B (CTV News, City of Winnipeg ).

Food Sector: A High risk was projected and a High impact observed in the short term with emergency support measures implemented. Concerns are growing as planting season approaches with an uncertain fuel supply, and fuel is critical for transporting livestock and operating essential equipment. Measures to resume fuel delivery through truck and rail substitution have been necessary and unscheduled capacity upgrades to the Gretna fuel terminal are underway (Manitoba Beef Producers Newsletter, March 28, 2024 , CityNews Winnipeg ).

Health Sector: A Medium risk was projected, but so far, low or no impact has been reported. Water infrastructure disruptions often necessitate evacuations for health and safety reasons, but there have been no immediate reports following the sewage system failure. However, the infrastructure's overall fragility could lead to unforeseen complications, as suggested by a sewer main failure shortly after the emergency bypass was implemented, resulting in the extended closure of at least one daycare business (Winnipeg Free Press ).

Transportation: A Medium risk was projected and Medium impact observed. Emergency measures and construction at a fuel depot on the U.S. border have enabled short-term substitution of the pipeline capacity for truck and rail capacity, but at the cost of adding stress and risk to the remaining transportation infrastructure running between the Gretna fuel depot and Winnipeg. The Transportation sector's inherent ability to adjust to ephemeral fuel sources, coupled with significant diversification, have limited the impacts of a the pipeline failure on the sector itself. (CBC .)

Energy: Pipelines are considered part of the Energy Infrastructure, yet the sector itself is not identified at elevated risk in this case study. Why? Probably because this is a localized (provincial level) assessment, and there are no refineries in Manitoba, which pipelines connect to users (industrial or consumer). It is likely the pipelines failure has broader effects across the border in the US, where the refineries are located... but cross-border risk effects were out of our scope in this case study. ...perhaps a later posting? LMK!

Looking Ahead - late spring / summer 2024: Further converging impacts between the Food and Water sectors may emerge. For instance, water quality concerns in Lake Winnipeg could affect livestock farming and renew pressure on government and health services. The past issues with Lake Winnipeg's water quality may be seriously aggravated by the sewage spill and impact not only food production (livestock water systems, commercial and subsistence fishing), but tourism. (Beef Research , Manitoba Beef Producers , CTV News ). Tourism is a $2 billion industry in Manitoba, underscoring the potential non-CI impact of these issues.

Conclusion: No model can predict the emergent and chaotic risks associated with CII precisely. In this instance, our open methodology appears to have provided metrics-based conclusions with a > 75% accuracy in predicting risks. Going forward, such insights that can be employed by policymakers, trainers, risk managers, and responders for modeling and guidance.??

Comments welcome! #criticalinfrastructure