Unmasking Biases: A Guide to More Accurate Judgments

We all like to believe that we are rational thinkers, making decisions based on logic and facts. However, our minds are often influenced by subtle biases that can skew our perception and lead us astray.

I was reminded of this during a recent work trip to Kuching, where I was tasked with negotiating with local contacts. As this was my first time there for business, I was unsure of what to expect and began imagining worst-case scenarios, wondering if the people might take advantage of me.

Upon arriving, I had some time before my meetings and decided to take a walk by the river. I noticed a small boat offering rides for RM14 (about S$4) per person. But there was a catch—the ride required at least two people to start. The owner mentioned the next ride was in an hour, suggesting that others might buy tickets by then.

An hour later, I was still the only one there. The owner suggested I buy two tickets, but that didn’t sit well with me—I would be paying much more than planned. To create more value, I proposed a RM50 boat ride, customized for me to visit specific places not on the usual itinerary. Despite this being a more lucrative offer, the owner declined, insisting on the standard route. Sensing my disappointment, he offered a compromise: I could buy two tickets and use the second one on a future trip or assign it to someone else.

My experience with the boatman ran contrary to my initial fears. What struck me was his insistence on fairness, sticking to his original offer even when I was willing to pay more. This encounter brought to mind Chaehan So’s TEDx talk, where he explored how our minds often fall into the "mental harmony puzzle," a mental trap where we selectively filter information to fit our existing beliefs. He identified three key biases that influence our judgment:

1. Confirmation Bias: The tendency to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs while dismissing anything that contradicts them.

2. Self-Serving Bias: The habit of attributing successes to our own abilities and efforts, while blaming external factors for failures.

3. Hindsight Bias: The inclination to see events as having been predictable after they have already occurred, altering our memories to fit the current narrative.

To combat these biases, So recommended three strategies:

1. Fight the First Impression: Recognize and challenge your initial judgments.

2. Jump to the Other Side: Actively seek out evidence that contradicts your beliefs.

3. Define Your Inner Focus: Regularly practice awareness to train your mind against biases.

Later, during negotiations with my counterparts, I began the meeting by sharing this story. I was impressed with the way of doing things in Kuching—it was all about fairness and transparency, rather than extracting maximum value. This set a positive tone for our discussions, a stark contrast to the concerns I had when I first arrived. Had I not had this experience, I might have approached the negotiations more guardedly, which could have led to a very different outcome. My initial fears were replaced by a newfound respect for the integrity I encountered.

As leaders, we must be mindful of how our biases influence decisions. Just as looking beyond the surface of water reveals the treasures beneath, or as an iceberg’s true size is hidden below the waterline, so too must we look beyond first impressions to uncover the full reality of any situation. Are you ready to see what lies beneath the surface? Let’s strive to guide our teams with fairness, openness, and a commitment to seeing things as they truly are.