Unlocking the Potential: How Groundbreaking Research is Shaping Kazakhstan's Water Future

INTERVIEW

Dr. Igor Malkovsky - the Director the centre of "Water Security of the Institute of Geograpgy and Water Security: Problems and Solutions"

"Igor Mikhailovich, there's growing concern among the leadership and the public in Kazakhstan regarding sustainable water supply. The discourse on water scarcity and its impact on economic development and the well-being of the population is gaining momentum. What's driving this concern?"

"President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev has placed a significant emphasis on addressing the water deficit in Kazakhstan. This concern arises from the interplay of climate-induced and human-caused changes in our hydro resources. It involves not only the utilization of transboundary waters but also their shared management and protection. To tackle this, the Head of State has called for radical shifts in our approach to responsible water resource management."

"The complexity of this problem cannot be overstated. Over the last half-century, more than 500 conflicts have arisen due to the uneven distribution of transboundary waters. While about 200 agreements have been signed, the issue remains far from resolved."

"The absence of long-term interstate agreements leaves room for potential tension regarding transboundary rivers like the Irtysh, Ili, Syrdarya, Ural (Zhaiyq), and others. Each water-user nation tends to pursue its own water strategies, often neglecting the interests of neighboring countries."

"Kazakhstan's water supply challenges are further compounded by the uneven distribution of river flow and water demand. The Irtysh natural-economic system alone accounts for up to 33% of total resources and 45% of local resources. In contrast, the Nura-Sarysu, Esil (Ishim), and Tobol-Torgai natural-economic systems contribute less than 6% of river flow. In low-water years, local flow can drop to a mere fraction of the average."

"In the long-term climate forecast for Kazakhstan, we're looking at ground-level air temperature increases of 0.8-1.2°C year-round and a 1-3% change in average annual precipitation by 2035. This translates to higher evaporation rates from river basins, reduced water inflow into rivers, and shrinking lake reservoirs."

"As the Head of State pointed out, the adoption of water-saving technologies has been disappointingly slow, and there's a lack of a culture of responsible water consumption. This rings true, as the inefficiency of water resource utilization can be attributed to water-intensive technologies. The average irrigation norm hovers between 9,500 to 10,500 cubic meters per hectare, soaring to a staggering 36,000 cubic meters per hectare on rice fields. Irrigation system efficiency struggles to reach 0.45-0.55, resulting in a wasteful loss of 1,500-3,000 cubic meters of water per hectare."

"Our nation's reliance on transboundary water resources underscores their role as a shared natural heritage meant to unite nations and foster economic collaboration, as stated by the President. It's imperative that we consistently seek understanding and mutually beneficial consensus with our neighbors and friends on this issue."

"The challenge of ensuring sustainable water supply for Kazakhstan's natural and economic systems is not a recent one. Could you shed some light on the efforts made by scientists, including those at your institute, to address this?"

"Among the significant initiatives aimed at tackling water-related challenges with substantial socio-economic and environmental implications, I would highlight a few. Firstly, there's the interdisciplinary scientific and technical program designed for the responsible utilization of water and land resources in the Ili-Balkhash region. Additionally, there are comprehensive international and national programs focused on environmental restoration and socio-economic development in the destabilized Aral Sea region, under Kazakhstan's jurisdiction."

These endeavors reflect the proactive measures being taken to confront Kazakhstan's water security issues head-on, underscoring the importance of collective efforts to safeguard this vital resource.

In my early years, under the mentorship of Academician Shafik Chokin, I delved into the intricacies of redistributing water resources across regions. The river flows in the southern and western parts of our nation are significantly impacted by unregulated human activities in neighboring countries such as Russia, China, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Amid the evolving geopolitical landscape in Central Asia, the Institute of Geography, with my involvement on behalf of the Kazakhstani Government, conducted an independent, rigorous scientific evaluation. We assessed the technical and economic viability of the Koksarai regulator on the Syr Darya River. This initiative was prompted by a request from the

Security Council.

As a response to the Security Council's call, we embarked on a comprehensive interdisciplinary program titled "Evaluating Kazakhstan's Water Resources and Forecasting Their Use Amidst Anthropogenic and Climate-Induced Changes." The results of our research, a historic milestone for independent Kazakhstan, were unveiled by the institute's director, Akhmetkal Medeu, and received unanimous approval during a Security Council meeting.

The culmination of our interdisciplinary program findings was the publication of a 30-volume monograph, "Water Resources of Kazakhstan: Evaluation, Projections, Management." This monumental work is instrumental in tackling one of Kazakhstan's most pressing issues on its path to sustainable development: the strategic underpinnings of water security. It places a strong emphasis on evaluating the novelty of our research, the potential applications of our findings, and concrete recommendations for safeguarding the Republic's water resources.

Notably, our institute's scientists have introduced a groundbreaking concept for ensuring the Republic's water security as an integral element of national security. This concept hinges on identifying water-related threats and employing a fresh water paradigm that combines demand and resource management. Subsequently, we conducted comprehensive interdisciplinary studies on a national scale, one of which culminated in the creation of a geospatial information system entitled "Water Resources of Kazakhstan and Their Utilization."

– What are the prospects for securing Kazakhstan's water supply given the backdrop of climate change and reduced runoff from neighboring countries' territories?

– We've laid the scientific and practical groundwork for a sustainable water supply for our population and economy, looking ahead to 2050, factoring in the challenges posed by climate change and neighboring economic activities. We've compiled an eight-volume monograph, "Water Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Transboundary Basins of the Ili and Irtysh Rivers," which has been meticulously researched and published.

In November of the previous year, we presented forward-looking scenarios during a roundtable discussion chaired by the Minister of Science and Higher Education. These scenarios detailed the evolving landscape of water resource formation and utilization, accompanied by recommendations for ensuring the sustainable water supply for our nation in the transboundary basins of the Ili and Irtysh Rivers. We examined various climate change and economic activity scenarios in the territory of the People's Republic of China.

The Committee on Science Competition, initially slated for the year's outset, only saw its commencement in July due to procedural delays. Given the intricacies of the competition, it is likely to extend well into the autumn months. In the meantime, our program's implementation aligns with last year's address by the Head of State, Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, who underscored the critical issue of water resource scarcity as a significant impediment to our nation's sustainable economic development. In the present context, this concern has escalated to become a matter of national security.

In a candid interview with a distinguished scientist, we delve into the profound impact of research on water resources and its critical relevance in shaping the future of Kazakhstan.

Q: How pivotal is the relevance and demand for your research?

Our scientific endeavors have far-reaching implications, finding application in the corridors of power, the boardrooms of planning and design firms, and the lecture halls of esteemed universities. Intergovernmental commissions, both within Kazakhstan and its neighboring nations, rely on our insights to navigate complex issues concerning transboundary rivers and interstate water management. Planning and design organizations harness our findings to craft comprehensive strategies for safeguarding and sustainably utilizing water resources. Ministries and departments turn to our research for robust information and analytical tools, while project research organizations leverage it to assess the ever-evolving state of our water resources. Leading universities in our nation count on our work to equip the next generation of highly skilled professionals.

Q: Following UNESCO's decision to embark on interdisciplinary research, what's on the horizon for your team?

Our Research Institute has been at the forefront of integrated research since 2009. Drawing from extensive practical and scientific expertise, I underscore the critical significance of water-related research in shaping national, sectoral, and regional programs for socio-economic advancement. We must address critical issues such as optimizing the management of our state's water resources and the nation's water fund, especially in light of the finite nature of renewable hydro resources and the transboundary character of major river basins. Simultaneously, we must enhance our administrative and economic management mechanisms to ensure their adaptability and efficiency.

Can you highlight the key areas of focus moving forward?

The future endeavors will involve continuing research to develop strategic frameworks for water supply and utilization within Kazakhstan. This includes conducting assessments at various administrative levels, including regions, districts, major cities, and rural areas, while considering an array of technical, socio-economic, environmental, and other criteria.

Furthermore, we are committed to establishing a water problem registry for Kazakhstan, a vital information repository that promises to be instrumental in addressing numerous challenges. Additionally, we're developing a collaborative geoinformation system known as the "Water Management Complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan" to enhance the evidence-based decision-making process within the realm of water resource management.

Our nation urgently requires scientific validation to enhance the existing monitoring system for water quality, bolster the safety of hydraulic structures, mitigate the consequences of floods, and restore our dwindling lake reserves.

Q: Can you elaborate on the broader context of your research in Kazakhstan's water landscape?

In the grand scheme of things, our research encompasses the territorial reallocation of water resources in Kazakhstan. We consider the profound political, economic, and environmental ramifications of river flow diversions. If we're genuinely committed to fostering a "green" economy and pursuing "green" development, securing water resources for relevant projects is paramount. This necessitates a precise assessment of water resources, including their valuation, inevitably sparking discussions about water tariffs.

In essence, our research isn't just about science—it's about securing a sustainable and prosperous future for Kazakhstan through informed decision-making and visionary policy initiatives.